Validations Queue
80,311 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 135 of 176, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
80,311
Reviewed
13
Filtered
8,764
page 135 / 176
Showing on page
50
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.57 | US/Israel strike on Iran by end of 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | |
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (dark matter)(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 241_008 AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible Eric Schmidt | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-19 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 240_048 Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.57 | USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_005 Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_015 GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.57 | China uses military force to take Taiwan by July 1, 2026(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 240_030 Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 35% | |
| 0.57 | China uses military force to take Taiwan by July 1, 2026(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Kash Patel still be FBI Director On 1st July 2026(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 246_033 Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of human drivers is legally. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I get any money again from manifold this year?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_GRID_50GW_2029 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | energy_grid_expansion | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_GRID_50GW_2029 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | energy_grid_expansion | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | 1 in 6 Adults are NEET in 2031 (UK)(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 247_022 Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 235_018 Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-25 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Do you like 46% odds?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Is Campbell marks swan a demon in the bacheloret(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | will we (husband + me) move back to our hometown within 3 years?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_049 W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-04 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Best gif competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-05 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% |