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79,555 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 123 of 173, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Will an Atlantic hurricane (Category 1+) form before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund survive its initial challenges(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | INF_037 An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 58% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Best gif competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 239_006 AI will solve everything including longevity Elon Musk | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will my account be restricted or removed by Monday, June 22?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.58 | Will I reach a streak of 1000?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-15 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026 | macro_recession | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-16 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (dark matter)(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 234_020 AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 248_036 AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | INF_060 Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive paradigm shift away from lithium as the sole foundational element of global energy storage. Elon Musk | Energy | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 241_033 Few frontier AI companies will be in China Eric Schmidt | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Claude Sonnet 4.8 be released before May 24?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Will Claude Sonnet 4.8 be released before May 24?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | US Consumer Price Index (April '26) < 3.55%(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.58 | My current relationship lasts >6 months (1 Jan to 1 Jul 2026)(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5](market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 236_032 AI has chance of fixing poverty globally Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% |