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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Uncertainty Reliability Under Domain Shift: An Investigation for Data-Driven Blood Pressure Estimation in Photoplethysmography	arxiv 2026-05-18	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	How does feature learning reshape the function space?	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	What will happen as a result of the Delaney Hall protests?	manifold 2026-05-30	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-27	SEM_045 Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizational transformations. Salim Ismail	Economy/Org	54%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-25	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.61	which will happen first? (Codeforces Rating)	manifold 2026-05-24	SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	70%
0.61	mcp-proto-okn: Natural-language access to open scientific knowledge graphs through the Model Context Protocol	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.61	What drives performance in molecular MPNNs? An operator-level factorial benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	What drives performance in molecular MPNNs? An operator-level factorial benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	xModel-KD: Cross-modal Knowledge Distillation for 3D Scene Perception using LiDAR	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Evaluating Skill and Stability of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen under Multi-Decadal Climate Simulations	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Meta-Programming for Linear-time Temporal Answer Set Programming	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	CB-SLICE: Concept-Based Interpretable Error Slice Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	OptSkills: Learning Generalizable Optimization Skills from Problem Archetypes via Cluster-Based Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Energy-Aware NECO for Single-Pass Pixel-wise Out-of-Distribution Detection in Semantic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Citation-Closure Retrieval and Per-Rule Attribution for Real-World Regulatory Compliance Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Source-Grounded Semantic Reinforcement Learning for Low-Resource Target-Language Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Active Continual Learning with Metaplastic Binary Bayesian Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Sample-Efficient Diffusion-based Reinforcement Learning with Critic Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Reducing Experimental Testing in Space Propulsion Film Cooling Analyses by Pixelwise Generative Image Interpolation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	A Geometric View of SRC: Learning Representations for Stable Residual Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FPLIER: Federated Pathway-Level Information Extractor	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.61	Deep Optimal Individualized Treatment Rules for Bivariate Survival Outcomes via Adaptive Prediction-Powered Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Rethinking Post-Training Recipes for Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	TRACER: Persistent Regularization for Robust Multimodal Finetuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	OmniRetrieval: Unified Retrieval across Heterogeneous Knowledge Sources	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Prediction-Powered Inference Across Many Tasks for AI Evaluation & Social Science Research	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Nine Judges, Two Effective Votes: Correlated Errors Undermine LLM Evaluation Panels	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	AfriScience-MT: Towards Decolonizing Science in Africa through Text Translation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt	Education	22%
0.61	Classification of non-analyzable word types in web documents to implement an effective Korean e-learning system	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Inform, Coach, Relate, Listen: Auditing LLM Caregiving Support Roles	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Wait! There's a Way Out: A Decision Mechanism for Forecasting Conversational Derailment	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	FDA ANDA211015: VERAPAMIL HYDROCHLORIDE (VERAPAMIL HYDROCHLORIDE) — SOMERSET THERAPS LLC	fda 2026-05-20	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA210329: TADALAFIL (TADALAFIL) — JUBILANT GENERICS	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.61	Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Brazil 2026 Election: Will the US announce a new tariff targeting Brazilian products before Brazil’s 2026 election?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-01	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.61	Will Sydney Metro exceed 70,000,000 trips taken in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-30	243_003 By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	46%
0.61	Will Softbank Group Corp. (9984.t) close at over 8000 on Jun11?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_040 Massive financial conglomerates will execute historic mergers to control underlying DC real-estate and fiber-optic assets: SoftBank's move to acquire DigitalBridge for its approximately $108 billion in infrastructure assets signals real-estate and fibe... SoftBank	Markets/Stocks	40%
0.61	Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) (CIK 0001860160)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	SafeSteer: Localized On-Policy Distillation for Efficient Safety Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Why Not Hyperparameter-Friendly Optimisation? A Monotonic Adaptive Norm Rescaling Approach For Long-Tailed Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Variational Learning for Insertion-based Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.61	A Structured Benchmark for Text-Guided Anomaly Detection: When Language Stops Conditioning the Decision	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	A Structured Benchmark for Text-Guided Anomaly Detection: When Language Stops Conditioning the Decision	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Community-Aware Assessment of Social Textual Engagement and Resonance: A Human-Centric Perspective on User-Generated Content Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Physically-Constrained Mamba-SDE for Remaining Useful Life Prediction under Irregular Observations	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Learning Implicit Bias in Generative Spaces for Accelerating Protein Dynamics Emulation	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	SECUREVENT: Hybrid AI/ML Security Monitoring for Distributed Event-Based Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	A Minimalist Brain-Computer Musical Interface for Real-Time Emotion-Driven Sonification: System Design and Preliminary Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Massive Spikes in LLMs are Bias Vectors: Mechanistic Uncovering and Spike-Free Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	ProbRes: Volatility Learning for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Query-Limited Community Recovery in Stochastic Block Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Graph Edit Distance Formulation for the Vehicle Routing Problem: Theory and Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.61	Sensitivity as a Double-Edged Sword: A Trade-off Between Discriminability and Adversarial Robustness	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Flexible Online Representation Learning Based on Similarity Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Near-Optimal Pure Machine Unlearning for Smooth Strongly Convex Losses	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.61	Near-Optimal Pure Machine Unlearning for Smooth Strongly Convex Losses	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.61	UR-JEPA: Uniform Rectifiability as a Regularizer for Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	On the Uncertainty Quantification Ability of Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Geometric Latent Reasoning Induces Shorter Generations in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Better with Experience: Self-Evolving LLM Agents for Evidence-Grounded Health Community Notes	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Consistent and Distinctive: LLM Benchmark Efficiency via Maximum Independent Set Prompt Selection on Similarity Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-31	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	Unlocking the Black Box of Latent Reasoning: An Interpretability-Guided Approach to Intervention	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	When Is 0.1% Enough? Analyzing the Combined Effects of Dimensionality Reduction and Quantization on Text Embedding Compression	arxiv 2026-05-31	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.3.0	github_release 2023-10-19	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.1	github_release 2021-07-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61	Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will CDT RealOruro win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will the June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-02	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.61	FDA ANDA062800: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ALMAJECT	fda 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Which country will win the 2026 Chess Olympiad (Open event)?	manifold 2026-06-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.41.0	github_release 2026-06-03	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-05	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-06-05	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.61	Towards One-to-Many Temporal Grounding	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	When Good Enough Is Optimal: Multiplication-Only Matrix Inversion Approximation for Quantized Gated DeltaNet	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Mechanistic Insights into Functional Sparsity in Multimodal LLMs via CoRe Heads	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Value-and-Structure Alignment for Routing-Consistent Quantization of Mixture-of-Experts Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Latent Reasoning with Normalizing Flows	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Symmetric Divergence and Normalized Similarity: A Unified Topological Framework for Representation Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	DAS-PINNs for high-dimensional partial differential equations: extending deep adaptive sampling to spacetime domains	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	Diffusion Models for Adaptive Sequential Data Generation	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	LLM Explainability with Counterfactual Chains and Causal Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Knowledge Manifold: A Riemannian Geometric Framework for Semantic Mapping and Geodesic Analysis of Scientific Literature	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	StableRCA: Robust Graph-Agnostic Mechanism-Level Root Cause Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Selective-Advantage Entropy-Adaptive Horizon GRPO: Asymmetric Token-Level Discounting for Efficient Reinforcement Learning of Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Selective-Advantage Entropy-Adaptive Horizon GRPO: Asymmetric Token-Level Discounting for Efficient Reinforcement Learning of Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Mamba-Assisted Non-Markovian Closure for Reduced-Order Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-03	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	From Self to Other: Evaluating Demographic Perspective-Taking in LLM Hate Speech Annotation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	CHALIS: A Challenge Dataset for Language Identification in Difficult Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Large Language Models are Perplexed by some Political Parties	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	TARPO: Token-Wise Latent-Explicit Reasoning via Action-Routing Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Membrane: A Self-Evolving Contrastive Safety Memory for LLM Agent Defense	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Rethinking LoRA Memory Through the Lens of KV Cache Compression	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Using Large Language Models to Support High Volume Application Review for an Undergraduate Research Program	arxiv 2026-06-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Audio Interaction Model	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	SemBlock: Semantic Boundary Dynamic Blocks for Diffusion LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Hybrid Adversarial Defence for Natural Language Understanding Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-03	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Hybrid Adversarial Defence for Natural Language Understanding Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Attitude-Aided Linear Calibration of Triaxial Accelerometers	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Learning Contact Representation for Leg Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	US Gas Price on June 22 2026	manifold 2026-06-06	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.61	Who will win the 2026 Classic Tetris World Championship (CTWC)?	manifold 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Manifold Markets says I have 249 Traders right now. By June 12th PDT (California Time) I will have 650.(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) (CIK 0001860160)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	UR-ENERGY INC (URG) (CIK 0001375205)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will Spain win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 85%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.4	github_release 2021-03-13	237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.1.3	github_release 2020-05-17	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	When Large Language Models Fail in Healthcare: Evaluating Sensitivity to Prompt Variations	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Quantum-Inspired Trace-Augmented Evidence Selection for Reasoning over Structured Hypothesis Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Quantum-Inspired Trace-Augmented Evidence Selection for Reasoning over Structured Hypothesis Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	MotionEnhancer: Leveraging Video Diffusion for Motion-Enhanced Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Hierarchical Forecast Reconciliation for Urban Rail Transit Demand Prediction under Operational Disruptions	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.61	Hierarchical Forecast Reconciliation for Urban Rail Transit Demand Prediction under Operational Disruptions	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Uniform Stability and Generalization Error of GD and SGD on Fixed-Point Parameters	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	GRASP: Geometry-aware Residual Alignment for Scalable Pretraining Data Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Modeling semantic association in self-paced reading with language model embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Will Maxx Crosby play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Almost Certainly Free Mana: All Options Resolves to YES Except Last Traded Option (you can add answers)	manifold 2026-06-09	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.61	U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-09	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.61	MeCo: One-Step MeanFlow-based Corrector for Multi-Channel Speech Separation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	ReCoVLA: VLM-Guided Reward Compilation for Failure Recovery in Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Steganography Without Modification: Hidden Communication via LLM Seeds	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Steganography Without Modification: Hidden Communication via LLM Seeds	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.61	A Multi-Agent System for IPMSM Design Optimization via an FEA-AI Hybrid Approach	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Baichuan-M4: A Clinical-Grade Medical Agent System for Continuous Care	arxiv 2026-06-08	232_044 There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Hardening Agent Benchmarks with Adversarial Hacker-Fixer Loops	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Q-Delta: Beyond Key-Value Associative State Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Scaling Decision-Focused Learning to Large Problems with Lagrangian Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Discovering Functionally Selective Brain Regions with a Deep Topographic Multimodal Model	arxiv 2026-06-08	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	Constrained user-item allocation for e-commerce marketing campaigns	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Integrating gene regulatory priors into Transformer attention with scTransformer for interpretable scRNA-seq analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Automating the Expert Eye: A System-Agnostic Deep Learning Framework for Rare Event Discovery in Imbalanced Force Spectroscopy	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	Automating the Expert Eye: A System-Agnostic Deep Learning Framework for Rare Event Discovery in Imbalanced Force Spectroscopy	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	PriFT: Prior-Support Guided Supervised Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Intention Driven Identification of In-Possession Match Phases in Association Football through Temporal Graph Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Backward Coherence and Hidden-State Stability in Recurrent Neural Networks: A Quasi-Reverse-Martingale Theory	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Rank Intervals for Leaderboards: A Hierarchical Framework for Model Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-07	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.61	Calibration of Structured Ignorance Certificates for Diagnosing Unknown Unknowns in Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	EinSort: Sorting is All We Need for Tensorizing LLM	arxiv 2026-06-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Can LLMs understand LilyPond? A benchmark for symbolic music generation and understanding	arxiv 2026-06-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Can LLMs understand LilyPond? A benchmark for symbolic music generation and understanding	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	A retrieval conditioned rebinding circuit for dynamic entity tracking in large language models	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	SAEExplainer: Interpreting SAE Features with Activation-Guided Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Bridged SBI: Correcting Biased Low-Fidelity Posteriors for Cost-Efficient High-Fidelity Inference	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Diffusion Forcing Planner: History-Annealed Planning with Time-Dependent Guidance for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Boosting ECG Classification Performance by Pre-training with Synthesized Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Spatial-Omni: Spatial Audio Understanding Integration in Multimodal LLMs via FOA Encoding	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Attention Expansion: Enhancing Keyphrase Extraction from Long Documents with Attention-Augmented Contextualized Embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Cross-Modal Knowledge Distillation without Paired Data: Theoretical Foundation and Algorithm	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Fisher-Guided Progressive Parameter Selection for Adaptive Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	Do Transformers Actually Help Intrusion Detection? A Temporal Sequence Evaluation on CIC-IDS2017	arxiv 2026-06-09	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	Flow-DPPO: Divergence Proximal Policy Optimization for Flow Matching Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Flow-DPPO: Divergence Proximal Policy Optimization for Flow Matching Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Accelerating SAV-based optimization via randomized low-rank Hessian approximation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Spatiotemporal Graph Transformer for 3D Neighborhood Interaction and Quality Prediction in Metal Additive Manufacturing	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	A Theory on Flow Matching with Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	It Takes One to Bias Them All: Breaking Bad with One-Shot GRPO	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will France win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will "Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-11	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	Natural-Language Temporal Grounding in Hour-Long Videos is a Search Problem: A Benchmark and Empirical Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	Soft-Prompt Tuning for Fair and Efficient LLM Benchmark Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-10	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Augmenting Molecular Language Models with Local $n$-gram Memory	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Task-Aware Structured Memory for Dynamic Multi-modal In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Grammar-Constrained Decoding Can Jailbreak LLMs into Generating Malicious Code	arxiv 2026-06-10	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	From Prompts to Tokens: Internalizing Causal Supervision in Vision-Language Model for Multi-Image Causal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	PCA-Enhanced Adaptive NVAR Framework for High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting in the East Sea	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	REACH: Interpretability-Driven Feature Identification and Architecture Compression for Multi-Channel Vehicular Channel Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Bergson: An Open Source Library for Data Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Tree-Structured Orthonormal Decomposition of the Aitchison Simplex	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Annealed Entropic Allocation for Ranking and Selection	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Semantic Grading of Written Answers in Low-Resource Language Bangla Using a Fine-Tuned Lightweight Language Model	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	An Ontology-Guided Multi-Anchor Graph Retrieval Framework for Traffic Legal Liability Determination	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.61	I Understand How You Feel: Enhancing Deeper Emotional Support Through Multilingual Emotional Validation in Dialogue System	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	When More Documents Hurt RAG: Mitigating Vector Search Dilution with Domain-Scoped, Model-Agnostic Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	Semantically-Aware Diver Activity Recognition Framework for Effective Underwater Multi-Human-Robot Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Explore From Sketch: Accelerating UAV Exploration in Large-scale Environments with Prior Maps	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.12.0	github_release 2025-11-21	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.8.0	github_release 2025-10-07	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.7.1	github_release 2025-09-24	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.61	Contrast-Informed Augmentation and Domain-Adversarial Training for Adult-to-Neonatal MR Reconstruction Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	Cascade Classification of Dermoscopic Images of Skin Neoplasms with Controllable Sensitivity and External Clinical Validation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%