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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.62	EVL-ECG: Efficient ECG Interpretation With Multi-Aspect Heterogeneous Knowledge Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	CLUBench: A Clustering Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	OVA-IB: One vs All Information Bottleneck for Multi-Modal Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	STAP: A Shuffle-Tokenized App Predictor with Ultra Long Context for Vocabulary-Free Mobile App Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-28	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Convex Basins in Single-Index Model Loss Landscapes: Applications to Robust Recovery under Strong Adversarial Corruption	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	BrahmicTokenizer-131K: An Indic-Capable Drop-In Replacement for o200k_base	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	GRUFF: LLM Pronoun Fidelity, Reasoning, and Biases in German	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Causal Interventions on Continuous Variables: A Case Study on Verb Bias in Steering Vectors for In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Causal Interventions on Continuous Variables: A Case Study on Verb Bias in Steering Vectors for In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	Spurious Prompts: Can Irrelevant Prompts Steer Large Language Models?	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.62	Mask the Target: A Plug-and-Play Regularizer Against LoRA Forgetting	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Architecture-Sensitive Supervised Fine-Tuning for Screen-Conditioned Action Prediction: A PiSAR Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	DynSess: Dynamic Session-Level Evaluation and Optimization Framework for Role-Playing Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Wait! There's a Way Out: A Decision Mechanism for Forecasting Conversational Derailment	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Learning to Feel Materials from Multisensory Tactile Data via Interpretable Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	VE2VF: Vision-Enabled to Vision-Free Distillation via Real-world Reinforcement Learning for Robust Contact-Rich Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	ElegantVLA: Learning When to Think for Efficient Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	A Progress-Aware Leader-Follower Midair Docking System for Dual-Drone Aerial Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.62	Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Teichmann (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.62	Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.62	Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.62	LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.62	Will my trader bonuses exceed… for the June season?	manifold 2026-06-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	ODTQA-FoRe: An Open-Domain Tabular Question Answering Dataset for Future Data Forecasting and Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.62	FOAM: Frequency and Operator Error-Based Adaptive Damping Method for Reducing Staleness-Oriented Error for Shampoo	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	Repurposing Adversarial Perturbations for Continual Learning: From Defense to Active Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	CEON: Circular Economy Ontology Network	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	RL-ACRGNet: Reinforcement Learning-Based Chest Radiology Report Generation Network	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Echo: A Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture for Speaker Diarization and Speech Recognition in a Shared Latent Space	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	SECUREVENT: Hybrid AI/ML Security Monitoring for Distributed Event-Based Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.62	JenBridge: Adaptive Long-Form Video Soundtracking across Scene Transitions	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	RPCASSM: Robust PCA State Space Model For Infrared Small Target Detection	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	TechGraphRAG: An Agentic Graph-Augmented RAG Framework for Technical Literature Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Local Preferential Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Scalable Counterfactual Risk Estimation for Rare Events in Longitudinal Data	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	TukaBench: A Culturally Grounded Jailbreak Benchmark for African Languages	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Worlds Within Words: Translating Culture in Ancient Chinese Texts with Multi-Agent Coordination	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Understanding LLM Behavior in Multi-Target Cross-Lingual Summarization	arxiv 2026-05-31	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	TECCI: Tricky Edits of Collected and Curated Images	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	FDA ANDA211417: LEVOTHYROXINE SODIUM (LEVOTHYROXINE SODIUM) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.4	github_release 2020-01-21	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.62	When will Manifest 2026 have 10+ session videos available online?	manifold 2026-06-03	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.62	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	SEM_040 Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. Michael Saylor	Finance/Crypto	48%
0.62	On what rocket will Blue moon MK1-SN001 launch on?	manifold 2026-06-04	242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis	Space	56%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.41.0	github_release 2026-06-03	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.62	TokenMizer: Graph-Structured Session Memory for Long-Horizon LLM Context Management	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Subspace-Aware Sparse Autoencoders for Effective Mechanistic Interpretability	arxiv 2026-06-04	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Closing the Loop on Latent Reasoning via Test-Time Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Design a Reliable LLM-Integrated Interface for Mortality Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	TLA-Prover: Verifiable TLA+ Specification Synthesis via Preference-Optimized Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	Deep Learning-based 3D Oral Cavity Reconstruction Using 2D Intraoral Images	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.62	Retry Policy Gradients in Continuous Action Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Class-Specific Branch Attention for Mitigating Gradient Interference under Class Imbalance	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Causal Atlases from Entropic Inference: Bayesian Networks beyond Optimal DAGs	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Maximising the Set-Piece Return: Optimising Football Corner Tactics with Graph Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Symmetric Divergence and Normalized Similarity: A Unified Topological Framework for Representation Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	A Machine Learning-Based Framework for Discovering Huntington's Disease Stages: Integrating Graph Representation Learning and clustering to Uncover Progression Dynamics in Longitudinal Enroll-HD Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Adaptive Oscillatory-State Alignment for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.62	LLM Explainability with Counterfactual Chains and Causal Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	EML-CD: Causal Mechanism Recovery via EML Symbolic Trees in Structure Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Intercomparison of Machine Learning Algorithms for Remote Sensing-based In-season Crop Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.62	DP-MacAdam: Differentially Private Mechanism with Adaptive Clipping and Adaptive Momentum	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	FOXGLOVE: Understanding Goal-Oriented and Anchored Writing Feedback from Experts and LLMs on Argumentative Essays	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	FOXGLOVE: Understanding Goal-Oriented and Anchored Writing Feedback from Experts and LLMs on Argumentative Essays	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	FOXGLOVE: Understanding Goal-Oriented and Anchored Writing Feedback from Experts and LLMs on Argumentative Essays	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	QueryAgent-R1: Bridging Query Generation and Product Retrieval for E-Commerce Query Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	AURA: Intent-Directed Probing for Implicit-Need Surfacing in Situated LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Beyond Text Following: Repairable Arbitration Reversals in Audio-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Data Attribution in Large Language Models via Bidirectional Gradient Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	RealDexUMI: A Wearable Universal Manipulation Interface for Dexterous Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.62	Amortized Nonlinear Model Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	Uncertainty-Aware Adaptive Sensor Fusion for Autonomous Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	X4Val: Learning Neural Surrogates for Variance-Reduced Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-03	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Flash-WAM: Modality-Aware Distillation for World Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Instant-Fold: In-Context Imitation Learning for Deformable Object Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-02	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Apple TV+ launch in Romania tommorow at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-07	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	47%
0.62	Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.62	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.1	github_release 2020-02-07	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.62	Mitosis Detection in the Wild: Multi-Tumor and Context-Aware Generalization in the MIDOG 2025 Challenge	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	DIFFRACT: Neuralized Utility Maximization for Wireless Networks by Differentiable Programming	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.62	Drifting Models for Surrogate Flow Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Unsupervised Continual Clustering via Forward-Backward Knowledge Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Unified Geometry-Guided ML-FTLE for Tracking Transient Chaos from Scalar Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	A Held-Out Transition-Pair Falsifier for Long-Horizon Non-Abelian State Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Generative Molecular Morphing for Flexible-Size Design via Unbalanced Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.62	FLOWREADER: Min-Cost Flow Optimization for Multi-Modal Long Document Q&A	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Diagnosing Visual Ignorance in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	MMAE: A Massive Multitask Audio Editing Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.62	HKVM-RAG: Key-Value-Separated Hypergraph Evidence Organization for Multi-Hop RAG	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	From Correctness to Utility: Gain-Based Prefix Evaluation for LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	Style or Content? Evaluating Style Classifiers with Controlled Content Overlap	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.62	Translate-R1: Cost-Aware Translation Tool Use via Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	CAPE: Contrastive Action-conditioned Parallel Encoding for Embodied Planning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	CAPE: Contrastive Action-conditioned Parallel Encoding for Embodied Planning	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	QuadVerse: An Integrated Framework Aligning Visual-Physical Reality for Quadruped Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-05	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027	manifold 2026-06-08	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.62	Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.62	What will be winning score in ARC's white-box estimation challenge (warm-up round)?	manifold 2026-06-09	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.62	Bandits for Efficient Experimentation: Adapting to Control Group, Preferences, and Context Drifts	arxiv 2026-06-08	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	Who Earns the Safety? Intervention-Aware Quantum Predictive Control with Safety Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Correlation Is Not Enough: Embedding Human Metadata for Individual Causal Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.62	Closure-Validated Circuit Discovery in Attention Heads: Co-activation Proposes, Ablation Disposes	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	DynaOD: Dynamic Origin-Destination Flow Generation with Discrete-to-Continuous Temporal Semantic Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Structure-Conditioned Actor-Critic Branches for Quality-Diversity Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	What the Eyes See, the LLMs Miss: Exploiting Human Perception for Adversarial Text Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-08	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.62	Graph Mamba Operator: A Latent Simulator for Interacting Particle Systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	PBSD: Privileged Bayesian Self-Distillation for Long-Horizon Credit Assignment	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	ERBench: A Benchmark and Testsuite for Equation Discovery Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.62	Counterfactual Transport Flows for Offline Conservative Trajectory Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	A systematic investigation of molecular encoding methods for drug property predictions across neural network and Transformer encoder-based model	arxiv 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	A systematic investigation of molecular encoding methods for drug property predictions across neural network and Transformer encoder-based model	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	From A to B to A: Palindromic Zero-Shot Voice Conversion with Non-Parallel Data	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts	arxiv 2026-06-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	Lost in the Non-convex Loss Landscape: How to Fine-tune the Large Time Series Model?	arxiv 2026-06-07	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	Titans-as-a-Layer: Test-Time Memory for Conversational Speech Emotion Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-07	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	PsychoSafe: Eliciting Psychologically-Informed Refusals in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Clinically Grounded Privacy Evaluation of Medical LMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	LexRubric: A Rubric-Guided Diagnostic Benchmark for Open-Ended Legal Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Document-Authored Control-Signal Impersonation: A Low-Cost Indirect Prompt Attack on RAG Safety Boundaries	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.62	Friend or Foe? Language as an ideological switch in open-weight LLMs under Russian disinformation stress	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Taming Perception Jitter: Uncertainty-Aware LiDAR Object Detection for Reliable Motion Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.62	PTDL:Multi-Terrain Fall Recovery via Phase-Terrain Decoupled Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	RGB-S: Image-Aligned Tactile Saliency for Robust Dexterous Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-07	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.62	Diffusion Forcing Planner: History-Annealed Planning with Time-Dependent Guidance for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Ethical and Technical Limits of Deepfake Speech Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Boosting ECG Classification Performance by Pre-training with Synthesized Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	Dynamic Linear Attention	arxiv 2026-06-09	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	From Data Heterogeneity to Convergence: A Data-Centric Review of Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Density Ridge Selective Prediction for LLM and VLM Hallucination Detection under Calibration Label Scarcity	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	First-Order Trajectory Matching: Fast Ensemble Predictions of Chaotic, Turbulent, Stochastic Systems	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Flexible Kernels for Protein Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	Flow-DPPO: Divergence Proximal Policy Optimization for Flow Matching Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Encoding the Euler Characteristic Transform	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Encoding the Euler Characteristic Transform	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.62	SPACR: Single-Pass Adaptive Training of Uncertainty-Aware Conformal Regressors	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Spatiotemporal Graph Transformer for 3D Neighborhood Interaction and Quality Prediction in Metal Additive Manufacturing	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	VFUSE: Virulent Feature Understanding with Sparse autoEncoders	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	Learning the Universe: Posterior Reliability of Neural Generative Models in High-Dimensional Field-Level Inference of Cosmic Initial Conditions	arxiv 2026-06-08	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.62	REAL: A Reasoning-Enhanced Graph Framework for Long-Term Memory Management of LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	UniSVQ: 2-bit Unified Scalar-Vector Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Selection, Not Salience: The Shape and Limits of Personalization in Social Highlighting	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	TacForeSight: Force-Guided Tactile World Model for Contact-Rich Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Resilient Navigation for Autonomous Farm Robots by Leveraging Jerk-Augmented Models with IMU-Only Disturbance Rejection	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.62	AgniNav: Configuration-Driven Cross-Embodiment Local Planning for Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.62	Will there be a large-scale riot in NYC after the NBA finals?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-11	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.62	Will June 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-08	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.62	Frozen Multimodal Embeddings for Personality and Cognitive Ability Assessment in Asynchronous Video Interviews	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.62	Toward Trustworthy AI: Multi-Target Adversarial Attacks and Robust Defenses for Continuous Data Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-10	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Toward Trustworthy AI: Multi-Target Adversarial Attacks and Robust Defenses for Continuous Data Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	ARGUS: Stacked Multi-View Identity Mosaic Injection for Subject-Preserving Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.62	Privacy-Preserving Federated Autoencoder for ECG Anomaly Detection on Edge Devices	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	On the Study of Biometric Spoofing Detection using Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	Hubs or Fringes: Pretraining Data Selection via Web Graph Centrality	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Finding Multiple Interpretations in Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	PCA-Enhanced Adaptive NVAR Framework for High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting in the East Sea	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Reliable Error Estimation for PINNs: Lower and Upper A Posteriori Bounds	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Online Shift Detection and Conformal Adaptation for Deployed Safety Classifiers	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Deterministic Policy Gradient for Learning Equilibrium in Time-Inconsistent Control Problems	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	TacCoRL: Integrating Tactile Feedback into VLA via Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Machine-learning clustering of close-in exoplanet populations: links to pebble accretion	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	FlexiBrain: Resolution-Agnostic Voxel-Level Encoding for Native fMRI	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Annealed Entropic Allocation for Ranking and Selection	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Which Speech Representation Better Matches Text-Native Reasoning? A Study of Speech-Text Alignment on Frame Rate and Representation	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.62	FORT-Searcher: Synthesizing Shortcut-Resistant Search Tasks for Training Deep Search Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	I Understand How You Feel: Enhancing Deeper Emotional Support Through Multilingual Emotional Validation in Dialogue System	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Improving Cross-Format Robustness in Language Models with Multi-Format Training	arxiv 2026-06-10	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Context-Aware Multimodal Claim Verification in Spoken Dialogues	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Traceable Virtual Sea Trials in the Marine Robotics Unity Simulator for Manoeuvring Assessment of Unmanned Surface Vehicles	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	VICX: Generalizable Robot Manipulation via Video Generation and In-Context Operator Network	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	HiPi: Reproducible High-Fidelity Piezoresistive Sensors for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.8.0	github_release 2025-10-07	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.62	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.5.0	github_release 2025-09-16	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	Will De'Von Achane be traded?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.62	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.62	Learning to Reason by Analogy via Retrieval-Augmented Reinforcement Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Ontology Memory-Augmented ASR Correction for Long Text-Speech Interleaved Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	OmniDirector: General Multi-Shot Camera Cloning without Cross-Paired Data	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%