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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-04 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?(market prob: 85%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Arnaldi(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA220299: ISOPROTERENOL HYDROCHLORIDE (ISOPROTERENOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASPIRO | fda 2026-05-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | FDA NDA204114: MEKINIST (TRAMETINIB DIMETHYL SULFOXIDE) — NOVARTIS | fda 2026-05-07 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | FDA NDA220711: BEQALZI (SONROTOCLAX) — BEONE MEDICINES USA | fda 2026-05-13 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA207717: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — RUBICON RESEARCH | fda 2026-05-15 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-29 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-02 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-02 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-02 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | 231_007 AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey | Other | 77% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-31 | 232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA NDA207947: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELION | fda 2026-05-23 | 240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis | AI | 54% | |
| 0.58 | FDA NDA022180: FERAHEME (FERUMOXYTOL) — AZURITY | fda 2026-05-27 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2023-07-29 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA NDA202811: LINZESS (LINACLOTIDE) — ABBVIE | fda 2026-05-21 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA062800: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ALMAJECT | fda 2026-05-28 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761108: ULTOMIRIS (RAVULIZUMAB-CWVZ) — ALEXION PHARM | fda 2026-06-01 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761108: ULTOMIRIS (RAVULIZUMAB-CWVZ) — ALEXION PHARM | fda 2026-06-01 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA062943: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ALMAJECT | fda 2026-05-28 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jonah Heim win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 26% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA215332: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — AUCTA | fda 2026-06-02 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | FDA NDA202293: FARXIGA (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — ASTRAZENECA AB | fda 2026-06-03 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA218405: SITAGLIPTIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (SITAGLIPTIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — MANKIND PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-05-21 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA NDA201848: HEPZATO (MELPHALAN HYDROCHLORIDE) — DELCATH SYSTEMS INC | fda 2026-05-28 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-9.5)(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | Will any 2026 World Cup team advance through group stage with 0 wins?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA220709: DEFLAZACORT (DEFLAZACORT) — CARNEGIE | fda 2026-05-28 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761460: DECNUPAZ (PIVEKIMAB SUNIRINE-PVZY) — ABBVIE INC | fda 2026-05-27 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA209633: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — BRECKENRIDGE | fda 2026-06-03 | 246_035 Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. Peter Diamandis | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Baltimore Ravens next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price | Education | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 33% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 241_024 Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed Eric Schmidt | Space | 54% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA218096: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — APOTEX | fda 2026-06-03 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-2.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt | Energy | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 26% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% |