Validations Queue
92,897 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 227 of 235, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
92,897
Reviewed
13
Filtered
23,425
page 227 / 235
Showing on page
100
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | FUT_005 Emergence of 'Living Intelligence' 2026-2031: violent transformative convergence between biological science, silicon-based sensor networks, and algorithmic orchestration — biological cells programmed with same precision as silicon computers. Living cel... Amy Webb | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.55 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 244_007 Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations Dara Khosrowshahi | Real Estate | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 14?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 240_011 NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-14 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-22 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.55 | Will Angela Dugalic win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Freddy Peralta win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Curaçao?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will there be 40+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community | AI | 48% | |
| 0.55 | Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.55 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-04 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Pistons vs. Magic(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Iran leadership change by December 31?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Abidjan 2: Niels Visker vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.55 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% |