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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Counterfactual Optimization of Baseball Pitch Sequences and Estimation of Its Impact on Season-Level Statistics	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	ARVO: Atlas of Reproducible Vulnerabilities for Open-Source Software	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	MGUP: A Momentum-Gradient Alignment Update Policy for Stochastic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Accelerated Convex Optimization via Hamiltonian Dynamics with Deterministic Integration Time	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Sum-of-Squares Degree Barriers for the Reweighted-Hinge Method in Robust Halfspace Learning: A Christoffel-Function Characterization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Learning from the Self-future: On-policy Self-distillation for dLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	VoidPadding: Let [VOID] Handle Padding in Masked Diffusion Language Models so that [EOS] Can Focus on Semantic Termination	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	A Hybrid Optimization Framework for Grasp Synthesis under Partial Observations	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Abstention-Aware Personalized Object Rearrangement via Uncertainty-Guided LLM Assistance	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Induced Resource Theories and Harvesting via Quantum Probes	arxiv 2026-06-15	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Language Models as Interfaces, Not Oracles: A Hybrid LLM-ML System for Pediatric Appendicitis	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	TW-LegalBench: Measuring Taiwanese Legal Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	QC-GAN: A Parameter-Efficient Quaternion Conformer GAN for High-Fidelity Speech Enhancement	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	TMR-GGNN: Credit Card Fraud Detection based on Time-Aware Multi-Relational Guided Graph Neural Network	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Deep Learning-Driven Inverse Design of Doherty Power Amplifiers Using Pixelated Combiners and Dual-State Impedance Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	When AUC Misleads: Polarization-Aware Evaluation of Deepfake Detectors under Domain Shift	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	On Local Population-Risk Certificates	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Strategic Feature Selection	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Towards Anomaly Detection on Relational Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Hierarchical Attention via Domain Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Beyond AHI: An Interpretable Causal-Discovery-Guided Framework for Sleep Recovery in Connected Health	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	ReSiReg: Towards Spatially Consistent Semantics in Language-Conditioned Robotic Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	TactSpace: Learning a Physics-enriched Shared Latent Space for Tactile Sim-to-Real Transfer	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.61	Finetuning Vision-Language-Action Models Requires Fewer Layers Than You Think	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Evaluating and Enhancing Negation Comprehension in Remote Sensing MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	MedRLM: Recursive Multimodal Health Intelligence for Long-Context Clinical Reasoning, Sensor-Guided Screening, Evidence-Grounded Decision Support, and Community-to-Tertiary Referral Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.61	Spatial-Aware Reduction Framework: Towards Efficient and Faithful Visual State Space Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	CREDENCE: Claim Reduction for Decomposition & Enhanced Credibility -- Semantic Metrics and Convergence Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Systematic Study of Dysarthric Speech Recognition: Spectral Features and Acoustic Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.61	NRITYAM: Language Models Meet Art and Heritage of Dance	arxiv 2026-06-18	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	OnDeFog: Online Decision Transformer under Frame Dropping	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	ITNet: A Learnable Integral Transform That Subsumes Convolution, Attention, and Recurrence	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Concept Flow Models: Anchoring Concept-Based Reasoning with Hierarchical Bottlenecks	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	On the Redundancy of Timestep Embeddings in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Judging to Improve: A De-biased VLM-as-3D-Judge Protocol for Single-Image 3D Generation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Semantic-Anchored Evidential Fusion for Domain-Robust Whole-Slide Survival Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Semantic-Anchored Evidential Fusion for Domain-Robust Whole-Slide Survival Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Calibrating Generative Models to Feature Distributions with MMD Finetuning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	CacheWeaver: Cache-Aware Evidence Ordering for Efficient Grounded RAG Inference	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	ESBMC-GraphPLC: Formal Verification of Graphical PLCopen XML Ladder Diagram Programs Using SMT-Based Model Checking	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.61	Generating Robot Hands from Human Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Fast Human Attention Prediction for Fixation-guided Active Perception in Autonomous Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Mobile Target Search with Imperfect Perception: A Partially Observable Stochastic Game Theoretical Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	Will France win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	When will Waymo or an equivalent be generally available in chicago.	manifold 2026-06-20	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	FDA NDA021131: ZYVOX (LINEZOLID) — PFIZER	fda 2026-06-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Norway leading at halftime?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.61	Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.61	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.61	Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	Will I be convinced that an X user was banned from X for using Birdclaw in 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-22	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	Manifold Markets 7-day average of Daily Active Users will be at least 29,000 by January 29, 2029 (1/29/29).(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-22	S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033	humanoid_deployment	10%
0.61	Will the S&P 500 index close below 4,800 points on any trading day between June 22 and July 10, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-22	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.61	Will France win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2025-11-18	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $76 on June 29, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-23	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Towards a Bathroom-Centered Human-Building Digital Twin Framework for Indoor Safety Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	The Correct Answer Trap: Pedagogically-Grounded Detection and Feedback for Hidden Misconceptions	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	StatABench: Dataset and Framework for Evaluating Statistical Analysis Capabilities of LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	From Fragments to Paths: Task-Level Context Recovery for Large Industrial Codebases	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	CLIP-guided Diffusion Model for Backdoor Generation in Sensor-based Human Activity Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.61	Not All Claims Are Equally Risky: FACTOR for Adaptive Verification in Factual Long-Form Generation	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Diffusion Models Adapt to Low-Dimensional Structure Under Flexible Coefficient Choices	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Hedgementation = Hedgerow Segmentation: A Remote Sensing Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Collapsed Effective Operators for Higher-order Structures	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Weighted Score-Oriented Losses for Temporally Localized Event Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	LOLLA: Deep Reinforcement Learning for Closed-Loop Link Adaptation Towards a GPU-Accelerated AI-RAN	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.61	Clipping the Price of Adaptivity at the Tail	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.61	Scalable Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning for Diffusion Policies via Adjoint Matching	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Scalable Bayesian Additive Models for Stellar Flare Detection via Amortized Gaussian Process Inference and Hidden Markov Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Asymptotic Signal Subspace Recovery in Softmax Attention Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	On the Effect of Segmentation Width and Cluster Size on Speech Resynthesis and Continuation in Generative Spoken Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	First-Token Broadcasters: Mechanistic Origins of Language Identity and Distributed Robustness in Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	A Relaxed Quadratic-Program-based Framework for Trajectory Tracking of Unicycle Robots with Singularity Avoidance	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.61	Line Drawings using LightBenders: Authoring and Illuminating	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	SPiralRoll: A Novel Adjustable-Stiffness Underactuated 3-DoF Joint with Torsion Springs for Rolling Robots	arxiv 2026-06-21	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	Finite-volume scheme for first-order viscoresistive relativistic magnetohydrodynamics	arxiv 2026-06-21	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	FDA ANDA200343: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — GENUS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA089990: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Accuracy and Satisfaction in Multi-Turn LLM Dialogues for NFR Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	70%
0.61	EG-VQA: Benchmarking Verifiable Video Question Answering with Grounded Temporal Evidence	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Visualizing "We the People": Bridging the Perception Gap through Pluralistic Data Storytelling	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Female-RHINO: A Real-Time Scanner-Integrated Framework for Automated Quantitative Uterine MRI Analysis and Structured Reporting	arxiv 2026-06-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Beyond Bayer: Task-Optimal Sensor Co-Design for Robust Autonomous-Driving Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	CAVEWOMAN: How Large Language Models Behave Under Linguistic Input and Output Compression	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	CAVEWOMAN: How Large Language Models Behave Under Linguistic Input and Output Compression	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Fast and Slow Variational Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_003 AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decade to reach $100 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) into just 12-24 months — an unprecedented monetization velocity. Dario Amodei	Macro/Economy	52%
0.61	From Spatial to Spectral: An Efficient, Frequency-Guided Feature Representation Learner for Small Object Detection	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Uniform Sampling from High-dimensional Spectral Norm Balls	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FedUP: One-Shot Federated Unlearning via Centroid-Guided Plug-in Filters	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	FedUP: One-Shot Federated Unlearning via Centroid-Guided Plug-in Filters	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.61	Information-Theoretic Classifier-Free Guidance with Adaptive Schedule Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Synergizing Physically Constrained MCMC and Chemical-Informed Gaussian Processes for Reaction Network Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	Dialogue to Discovery: Attribute-Aware Preference Elicitation for Conversational Product Search Assistants	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	MinInter: Minimizing Trajectory Interpolation During Data Augmentation for Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	MinInter: Minimizing Trajectory Interpolation During Data Augmentation for Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	FDA ANDA204407: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — NOVEL LABS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA209021: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA209036: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ABHAI LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will CrowdStrike (CRWD) close higher in its first week after the 4:1 split?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-25	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.61	A welding penetration prediction model for laser welding process based on self-supervised learning using physics-informed neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Color Matters: Trigger Color Affects Success in Federated Backdoor Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	From Sounds to Scenes: A Benchmark for Evaluating Context-Aware Auditory Scene Understanding in Large Audio Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	From Sounds to Scenes: A Benchmark for Evaluating Context-Aware Auditory Scene Understanding in Large Audio Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	EPTS: Elastic Post-Training Sparsity for Efficient Large Language Model Compression	arxiv 2026-06-24	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Benchmarking the Alignment of Data-Quality Metrics, Human Judgment and Land-Cover Segmentation Performance for Earth Observation	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Beyond Shapley: Efficient Computation of Asymmetric Shapley Values	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.61	Adapt Only When It Pays: Budgeted Decision-Loss Priority for Delayed Online Time-Series Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Wan-Streamer v0.1: End-to-end Real-time Interactive Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	When Multi-Sensor Fusion Fails to Generalize: Cattle Posture Classification Under Animal-Level and Temporal Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Same Evidence, Different Answer: Auditing Order Sensitivity in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Taxonomy-aware deep learning for hierarchical marine species classification in underwater imagery	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Gaussian Mean Field Variational Inference can Overestimate Predictive Variance	arxiv 2026-06-24	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Towards Robust EEG Decoding Based on Riemannian Self-Attention	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Don't Go Breaking My LLM: The Impact of Pruning Attention Layers on Explanation Faithfulness and Confidence Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Enhancing Clinician Decision-Making via Uncertainty-Aware Multi-Expert Fusion for Stroke Rehabilitation	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Convex--Concave Quadratic Spectral Filtering for Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Detect, Unlearn, Restore: Defending Text Summarization Models Against Data Poisoning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.61	A Survey of Toxicity Detection and Mitigation Strategies for Multilingual Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Multilingual Hematology Visual Question Answering Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Wear-Clearance-Impact Coupling in the Jansen Linkage: A Gait-Durability-Optimized Design Slows Joint Loosening	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	FDA ANDA087508: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — GENUS LIFESCIENCES	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA211690: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SANALUZ	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA NDA005010: DEMEROL (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — QUAGEN	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA080448: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — SUN PHARM INDUSTRIES	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA203602: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — NOVEL LABS INC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-25	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.61	Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.61	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	41%
0.61	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-09-14	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Best April 29 Earnings?	manifold 2026-04-29	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-04-27	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.61	Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Tesla Q1 26 Earnings Claims Prop Bets	manifold 2026-04-24	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-04-30	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.61	alphabet supera expectativas de vendas com forca do google cloud e clientes de inteligencia artificial.ghtml	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_049 Traditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platform distribution will capture monopolistic shares of the consumer AI agent market via deep OS-level integration. Jason Calacanis	AI/Markets	50%
0.61	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_008 Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. Dario Amodei	Labor/Jobs	41%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	view?ud=2026043010000247039	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	meta chief zuckerberg doubles down on ai spending	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_001 Cost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more people Unknown	AI	37%
0.61	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	186161	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_033 Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regulation: Meta committed $65M to super PACs ('Forge the Future Project', 'Making Our Tomorrow'); a16z backed the $50M 'Leading the Future' PAC — combined $1... Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)	Geopolitics	62%
0.61	musk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openai	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_033 Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regulation: Meta committed $65M to super PACs ('Forge the Future Project', 'Making Our Tomorrow'); a16z backed the $50M 'Leading the Future' PAC — combined $1... Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)	Geopolitics	62%
0.61	kforce inc q1 2026 earnings 123000580.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.61	984371 robot dogs elon musk jeff bezos heads viral	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-01-13	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.61	Will Apple announce Gemini-powered Siri features at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-01	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.61	Sp500 closes below 7,000 or above 7,500 next?	manifold 2026-05-01	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 8th, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	How much mana will be spent buying tickets for the first $100 draw?	manifold 2026-05-02	231_031 OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	58%
0.61	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will the Fredie Mac US 30-year fixed-rate average drop below 5.75% before Nov 1, 2026.(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.61	Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%