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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs for Large Scale Traffic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	RAG over Thinking Traces Can Improve Reasoning Tasks	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	ADAPTS: Agentic Decomposition for Automated Protocol-agnostic Tracking of Symptoms	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Global and Local Topology-Aware Attention with Persistent Homology and Euler Biases for Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	OphMAE: Bridging Volumetric and Planar Imaging with a Foundation Model for Adaptive Ophthalmological Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	From Data Lifting to Continuous Risk Estimation: A Process-Aware Pipeline for Predictive Monitoring of Clinical Pathways	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	From Data Lifting to Continuous Risk Estimation: A Process-Aware Pipeline for Predictive Monitoring of Clinical Pathways	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	On Computing Total Variation Distance Between Mixtures of Product Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Training-Free Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting with Conformal Seasonal Pools	arxiv 2026-05-05	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	Population-Aware Imitation Learning in Mean-field Games with Common Noise	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	A Comprehensive Analysis of Tokenization and Self-Supervised Learning in End-to-End Automatic Speech Recognition applied on French Language	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	BIT.UA-AAUBS at ArchEHR-QA 2026: Evaluating Open-Source and Proprietary LLMs via Prompting in Low-Resource QA	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	ContextualJailbreak: Evolutionary Red-Teaming via Simulated Conversational Priming	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Shadow-Loom: Causal Reasoning over Graphical World Model of Narratives	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Structural Dilemmas and Developmental Pathways of Legal Argument Mining in the Era of Artificial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Latent Bridge: Feature Delta Prediction for Efficient Dual-System Vision-Language-Action Model Inference	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Sampling-Based Control via Entropy-Regularized Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	FDA ANDA211536: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — CIPLA LTD	fda 2026-04-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA NDA021880: REVLIMID (LENALIDOMIDE) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA ANDA213267: THALIDOMIDE (THALIDOMIDE) — NATCO	fda 2026-04-24	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	FDA ANDA078956: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-04-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA ANDA219593: PREGABALIN (PREGABALIN) — UNICHEM	fda 2026-04-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-07	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.63	Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	The First Token Knows: Single-Decode Confidence for Hallucination Detection	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Rethinking Local Learning: A Cheaper and Faster Recipe for LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Every Step Counts: Step-Level Credit Assignment for Tool-Integrated Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	UniVer: A Unified Perspective for Multi-step and Multi-draft Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	ADAPTS: Agentic Decomposition for Automated Protocol-agnostic Tracking of Symptoms	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	FDA ANDA206387: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — IPCA LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.1	github_release 2021-06-30	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.2	github_release 2019-08-15	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.63	facebookresearch/faiss v1.7.4	github_release 2023-04-20	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	facebookresearch/balance 0.8.0	github_release 2023-04-26	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.34	github_release 2026-01-23	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.63	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28	github_release 2024-09-12	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Patch2Vuln: Agentic Reconstruction of Vulnerabilities from Linux Distribution Binary Patches	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Asymmetric On-Policy Distillation: Bridging Exploitation and Imitation at the Token Level	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Rethinking Vacuity for OOD Detection in Evidential Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Inference-Time Refinement Closes the Synthetic-Real Gap in Tabular Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Super-Level-Set Regression: Conditional Quantiles via Volume Minimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Taming the Entropy Cliff: Variable Codebook Size Quantization for Autoregressive Visual Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	BehaviorGuard: Online Backdoor Defense for Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	LiVeAction: a Lightweight, Versatile, and Asymmetric Neural Codec Design for Real-time Operation	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	FedAttr: Towards Privacy-preserving Client-Level Attribution in Federated LLM Fine-tuning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	FedAttr: Towards Privacy-preserving Client-Level Attribution in Federated LLM Fine-tuning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	Invariant Features in Language Models: Geometric Characterization and Model Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.63	LINC: Decoupling Local Consequence Scoring from Hidden Matching in Constructive Neural Routing	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Can Attribution Predict Risk? From Multi-View Attribution to Planning Risk Signals in End-to-End Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-05-07	243_011 Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.63	Trade-off Functions for DP-SGD with Subsampling based on Random Shuffling: Tight Upper and Lower Bounds	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Structure-Preserving Gaussian Processes Via Discrete Euler-Lagrange Equations	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	AffineLens: Capturing the Continuous Piecewise Affine Functions of Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Physical Fidelity Reconstruction via Improved Consistency-Distilled Flow Matching for Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Don't Lose Focus: Activation Steering via Key-Orthogonal Projections	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	A$^2$TGPO: Agentic Turn-Group Policy Optimization with Adaptive Turn-level Clipping	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	RVPO: Risk-Sensitive Alignment via Variance Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Anatomy of a Query: W5H Dimensions and FAR Patterns for Text-to-SQL Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Rethinking Local Learning: A Cheaper and Faster Recipe for LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Every Step Counts: Step-Level Credit Assignment for Tool-Integrated Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	A Comparative Study of INDI and NDI with Nonlinear Disturbance Observer for Aerial Robotics	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Maximal Controlled Invariant-MPC: Enhancing Feasibility and Reducing Conservatism through Terminal CBF Constraint in Safety-Critical Control	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Optimal Uncertainty-Aware Calibration for the AX=YB Problem	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.63	Will a Hantavirus Vaccine be created in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA	Energy	48%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will this market get between 55-75 unique traders?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-10	235_028 Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	56%
0.63	Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-09	235_043 Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. Salim Ismail	Defense	36%
0.63	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.10	github_release 2025-03-20	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Will Brent Crude Oil close above $110 on May 15th, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-12	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.63	FDA ANDA078885: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA ANDA078982: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — GRANULES	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.63	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.63	LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP (LMT) (CIK 0000936468)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP) (CIK 0000733269)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Beyond GRPO and On-Policy Distillation: An Empirical Sparse-to-Dense Reward Principle for Language-Model Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-12	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	KV-Fold: One-Step KV-Cache Recurrence for Long-Context Inference	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.63	Trajectory-Agnostic Asteroid Detection in TESS with Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	From Message-Passing to Linearized Graph Sequence Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	A New Technique for AI Explainability using Feature Association Map	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Targeted Neuron Modulation via Contrastive Pair Search	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	PriorZero: Bridging Language Priors and World Models for Decision Making	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.63	Keeping Score: Efficiency Improvements in Neural Likelihood Surrogate Training via Score-Augmented Loss Functions	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Learning plug-in surrogate endpoints for randomized experiments	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.63	QDSB: Quantized Diffusion Schrödinger Bridges	arxiv 2026-05-12	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	Understanding Sample Efficiency in Predictive Coding	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	Debiased Model-based Representations for Sample-efficient Continuous Control	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Compositional Neural Operators for Multi-Dimensional Fluid Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	FDA NDA020578: ZOLADEX (GOSERELIN ACETATE) — TERSERA	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	How many people will be regularised in Spain in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-12	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.63	Min-Max Optimization Requires Exponentially Many Queries	arxiv 2026-05-13	241_018 Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) Eric Schmidt	Energy	55%
0.63	A Hierarchical Language Model with Predictable Scaling Laws and Provable Benefits of Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-13	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Decoupled and Divergence-Conditioned Prompt for Multi-domain Dynamic Graph Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Effective Context in Transformers: An Analysis of Fragmentation and Tokenization	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	TurboGR: An Accelerated Training System for Large-Scale Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	Strategic PAC Learnability via Geometric Definability	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.63	MPINeuralODE: Multiple-Initial-Condition Physics-Informed Neural ODEs for Globally Consistent Dynamical System Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	PaMM: Periodic Motif Memory for Atomistic Models with an Explicit Local-Structure Interface	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	PaMM: Periodic Motif Memory for Atomistic Models with an Explicit Local-Structure Interface	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	GAGPO: Generalized Advantage Grouped Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Understanding Generalization through Decision Pattern Shift	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.63	Ergodic Trajectory Design by Learned Pushforward Maps: Provable Coverage via Conditional Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.63	From Instance Selection to Fixed-Pool Data Recipe Search for Supervised Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	FDA ANDA205402: PALIPERIDONE (PALIPERIDONE) — I3 PHARMS	fda 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	FDA ANDA218148: ATROPINE SULFATE (ATROPINE SULFATE) — MANKIND PHARMA	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC (AMD) (CIK 0000002488)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.63	Novel Dynamic Batch-Sensitive Adam Optimiser for Vehicular Accident Injury Severity Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.63	Generalized Priority-Aware Shapley Value	arxiv 2026-05-14	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	InfoSFT: Learn More and Forget Less with Information-Aware Token Weighting	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	InfoSFT: Learn More and Forget Less with Information-Aware Token Weighting	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	Not All Symbols Are Equal: Importance-Aware Constellation Design for Semantic Communication	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.63	Learning with Shallow Neural Networks on Cluster-Structured Features	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	REALM: Retrospective Encoder Alignment for LFP Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	Cognitive-Uncertainty Guided Knowledge Distillation for Accurate Classification of Student Misconceptions	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Action-Inspired Generative Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Efficient Multi-objective Prompt Optimization via Pure-exploration Bandits	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Exploring Geographic Relative Space in Large Language Models through Activation Patching	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	ArcGate: Adaptive Arctangent Gated Activation	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	ForcingDAS: Unified and Robust Data Assimilation via Diffusion Forcing	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Latency-Quality Routing for Functionally Equivalent Tools in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Paraphrasing Attack Resilience of Various AI-Generated Text Detection Methods	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	DT-Transformer: A Foundation Model for Disease Trajectory Prediction on a Real-world Health System	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.63	Uncovering Trajectory and Topological Signatures in Multimodal Pediatric Sleep Embeddings	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.63	Gauff vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 21.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will SPY close above $739.17 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	FDA ANDA217761: SPIRONOLACTONE (SPIRONOLACTONE) — ANNORA PHARMA	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will the May 2026 US CPI year-over-year reading come in above 2.8%?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-05-16	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.63	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.63	Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	Which US political party will be the more "pro-AI" party at the time of the 2028 presidential debates?	manifold 2026-05-18	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.63	before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-18	237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn	AI	43%
0.63	LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP) (CIK 0000733269)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Which World Leaders will leave office before EOY 2027? (Add Answers)	manifold 2026-05-19	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.63	Can machine learning for quantum-gas experiments be explainable?	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.63	KairosHope: A Next-Generation Time-Series Foundation Model for Specialized Classification via Dual-Memory Architecture	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Forecasting Downstream Performance of LLMs With Proxy Metrics	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Estimating Item Difficulty with Large Language Models as Experts	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.63	Modelling Customer Trajectories with Reinforcement Learning for Practical Retail Insights	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.63	Spherical Harmonic Optimal Transport: Application to Climate Models Comparisons	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	Proximal basin hopping: global optimization with guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	MARR: Module-Adaptive Residual Reconstruction for Low-Bit Post-Training Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	DAD4TS: Data-Augmentation-Oriented Diffusion Model for Time-Series Forecasting with Small-Scale Data	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	Fine-tuning Pocket-Aware Diffusion Models via Denoising Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-17	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.63	Will I comment on this market?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-28	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.63	Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will Google Trends add "The Moon" as an selectable geographic location before January 1, 2028?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will Google Trends add "The Moon" as an selectable geographic location before January 1, 2028?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Neural Network Verification using Partial Multi-Neuron Relaxation	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.63	Beyond MSE: Improving Precipitation Nowcasting with Multi-Quantile Regression	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Evolving Features vs Evolving Entire Trees with GP for Interpretable Survival Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	Projectional Decoding: Towards Semantic-Aware LLM Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Cookie-Bench: Continuous On-screen Key Interaction Evaluation for Web Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	GRASP: Gated Regression-Aware Skill Proposer for Self-Improving LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	TRACE: Toulmin-based Reasoning Assessment through Constructive Elements for LLM CoT Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.63	PhoneWorld: Scaling Phone-Use Agent Environments	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Leave a Window Out: Modifying the Jackknife for Predictive Inference in Time Series	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	SAHG: Sector-Anisotropic Hyperbolic Graph Model for Social Bot Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.63	Momentum Based Reward Design for Low Emission Traffic Signal Control	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	A Novel Tensor Product-Based Neural Network for Solving Partial Differential Equations	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.63	K-FinHallu: A Hallucination Detection Benchmark for Multi-Turn RAG in Korean Finance	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	Convex Basins in Single-Index Model Loss Landscapes: Applications to Robust Recovery under Strong Adversarial Corruption	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Information-Directed Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	Information-Directed Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	VideoFDB: Evaluating Full-Duplex Vision-Speech Capabilities in Conversational Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.63	MELD: Mel-Spectrogram-Based Speech Language Modeling with Discrete Latent Variables	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	AfriScience-MT: Towards Decolonizing Science in Africa through Text Translation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Rethinking Stepwise Model Routing: A Cost-Efficient Table Reasoning Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Rethinking Stepwise Model Routing: A Cost-Efficient Table Reasoning Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	FDA BLA761452: IMMGOLIS (GOLIMUMAB-SLDI) — ACCORD BIOPHARMA INC.	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA ANDA212682: NEBIVOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE (NEBIVOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — PRINSTON INC	fda 2026-05-20	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63	Will I bet on this market?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-30	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-30	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.63	FDA ANDA220673: CLOMIPHENE CITRATE (CLOMIPHENE CITRATE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%