Predictions
1,178 of 1,660 predictions match — page 19 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 235_021 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Zipline | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 235_024 | Energy | abundance | In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 236_011 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 236_013 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 236_045 | Geopolitics | economy | Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry … | Andrew Yang | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 238_043 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human wh… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 238_049 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 238_051 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenu… | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-05-31 |
| 238_059 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as … | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 242_001 | AI | AGI | Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current glob… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 242_005 | Space | SpaceX | Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 242_013 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 242_019 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 242_031 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 242_038 | Space | SpaceX | Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 242_051 | Space | orbital-AI | Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 246_013 | Space | orbital-AI | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 246_039 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 247_015 | Macro/Economy | economy | Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 247_052 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 248_002 | Space | AI-timing | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial network… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 248_015 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 248_016 | AI | AI-scaling | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of y… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 248_033 | AI | AI-scaling | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| AI_032 | Biotech/Longevity | Astromech-predictive-biology | Astromech (co-founded with Harvard geneticist George Church) will quickly bec… | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | B | 18.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2035-09-30 |
| CMQ_002 | AI | AGI-capability-roadmap | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving auton… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| COD_BIO_004 | Biotech/Longevity | mammoth-deextinction | Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028 | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 32.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| COD_SPC_002 | Space | Artemis-lunar-landing | The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| INF_006 | AI | DC-land-coverage | Over time, very large fractions of the earth's land surface will be given ove… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| INF_010 | Energy | US-power-shortfall | US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW pow… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_053 | Energy | nuclear-gigasite-architecture | Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical Hig… | Isaiah Taylor | 4/5 | C | 30.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| INF_055 | Energy | fusion-commercial-debut | Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — … | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 28.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 230_008 | AI | AI-timing | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and materi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_010 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_011 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Am… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_019 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the ne… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_032 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_044 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security thre… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_051 | Markets/Stocks | humanoids | Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_007 | AI | AI-timing | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_008 | AI | AI-timing | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_017 | AI | AI-scaling | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_020 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (pe… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_021 | Consumer | AI-timing | Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and m… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_023 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and survei… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_024 | AI | AI-scaling | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in th… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_027 | Other | crypto | Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programma… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_028 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't k… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_029 | Other | AI-scaling | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_039 | AI | NVIDIA | Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |