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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will I be below 265 pounds by January 11, 2027? (Today: 318.8 pounds)(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader meet in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | ai_regulatory_pause | 5% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt | Education | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-10 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.55 | Will any NFL team start the 2026 regular season 7-0?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Estevao plays in the 2026 World Cup(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Jannik Sinner win Roland Garros 2026?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.55 | Will I stick to my lecture protocol and preparation next week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will Evan Li’s text to his EX gain a response(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen | Macro/Economy | 48% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 243_036 Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | At the end of 2036, will the UK have routinely unarmed police officers?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 232_020 Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 48% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Israel win the public vote at Eurovision 2026(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 55% | |
| 0.55 | Will Israel win the public vote at Eurovision 2026(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.55 | Will Israel win the public vote at Eurovision 2026(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-14 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 231_029 Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. Dave Blundin | Other | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 242_016 TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-18 | COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | Macro/Economy | 54% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-26 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-25 | COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-04 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Ryan Strophy get a girlfriend by the end of June?(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will iran and usa stop the war permanent on 31.juni(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 244_004 Race car driving will persist as a sport Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-06 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the SSPX catholics incur excommunications in 2026?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Will England reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in 2027 or 2028?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 37% |