Validations Queue

64,690 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 33 of 86, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.61polymarket
2026-04-28
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-06
FUT_008
China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics30%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-11
FUT_014
'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl...
Ian Bremmer
Geopolitics55%
0.61
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-10
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-29
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-14
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-16
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61
Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-05-15
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-17
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-08
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-16
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-02-20
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-19
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-29
235_006
By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-25
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-22
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-01
237_010
In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.
Alex Finn
Crypto43%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-01
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-26
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-10
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-04
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-26
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-09
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-26
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-02
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-11
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-26
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-29
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-24
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-25
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-02
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-02
237_010
In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.
Alex Finn
Crypto43%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-11
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-17
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-29
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-29
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-25
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-30
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-25
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.61
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-05-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-22
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-03
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-08
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-24
239_018
Universal High Income will be implemented
Elon Musk
Macro/Economy44%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-19
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-12
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-05
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-14
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-26
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-17
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-16
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-05
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-25
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-22
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.61polymarket
2026-01-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-04
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-12
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-02-16
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
238_048
US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-25
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-26
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-25
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-17
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-26
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-17
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-26
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-02
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-30
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-03
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-25
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-22
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-19
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-17
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2026-01-04
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-27
246_030
DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks34%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-04
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-26
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-26
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-04
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-12
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-16
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-17
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-10
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-04
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-14
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-15
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-16
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-01
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-18
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
CMQ_061
Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt.
Mark Cuban
Crypto4%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-16
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-01
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-30
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-30
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-30
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-17
242_036
Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks42%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-07
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-02-27
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
238_023
Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag)
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.61polymarket
2026-02-18
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-23
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-10
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-26
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-25
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-26
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-17
229_004
By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.
Brett Adcock
Geopolitics41%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-26
235_011
PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.
Salim Ismail
Markets/Stocks47%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-26
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-21
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%