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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Alec Pierce be traded?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.56 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Albert Rusnák win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Albert Rusnák win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will Brandon Woodruff win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-27 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2025-11-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 245_017 Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | CMQ_045 Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially driving total global server CPU market well beyond $100B. Morgan Stanley | Semis | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Lakers (-4.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Magic(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Oilers vs. Ducks(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.56 | Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% |