Validations Queue
80,311 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 142 of 176, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | Will greyhound racing be banned in the US by the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.57 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will France win the world cup(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 24% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | will my application to the 2026 LWCW be accepted? [short fuse](market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | @MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Marco Rubio ever be President of the United States?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 229_022 Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | Trump meets Xi Jinping again in 2026?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will Starmer contest a leadership challenge?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_024 Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure Andrew Yang | Real Estate | 51% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 245_020 Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry Ben Lamm | Other | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | New fish species (market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 33% | |
| 0.57 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will the US strike Oman before June 16?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% |