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79,555 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 113 of 173, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 233_006 Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. Joe Liemandt | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA | Energy | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Oh-My-God particle)(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 234_036 Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 29% | ||
| 0.58 | Do you like 54% odds?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg | Labor/Jobs | 22% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | humanoid_deployment | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ciconia: When They Cry Phase 2 be released by the end of 2026?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Andy Burnham PM before 1 November 2026?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.58 | Will SPY close above $739.17 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_019 Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automated Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will SPY close above $750 on Monday, May 18, 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35?(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-27 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt | Education | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | FUT_011 By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal geographic locations; below 1 cent per kWh across vast majority of globe; even in poorest-irradiance/highest-regulatory-burden regions costs not exceeding 1.5 cents per kWh. 2... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2026/2027 Bundesliga season(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2026/2027 Bundesliga season(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% |