Validations Queue

47,884 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 4 of 48, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)

47,884

Reviewed

Filtered

9,579

page 4 / 48

Showing on page

200

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold

Source

All (47884)arxiv (17334)codex_research_pack (134)edgar_8k (2071)fda (2570)gdelt (1218)github_release (2442)manifold (5975)polymarket (16140)

Page size

50 100 200 500

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Threshold:Source:Action:

Source0 selected · 0 visible

Bulk action

Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.72	DenseSteer: Steering Small Language Models towards Dense Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	WorldMemArena: Evaluating Multimodal Agent Memory Through Action-World Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	How high will SpaceX get on the Market Cap Leaderboard in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.72	Will an OpenAI or Anthropic employee comment on this market first?	manifold 2026-06-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.72	Scaling Agentic Capabilities via Grounded Interaction Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	RedKnot: Efficient Long-Context LLM Serving with Head-Aware KV Reuse and SegPagedAttention	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Beyond Semantic Organization: Memory as Execution State Management for Long-Horizon Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.72	Individual Gain, Collective Loss: Metacognitive Adaptation in AI-Assisted Creativity	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	May 2026 AI model releases	manifold 2026-04-30	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.72	A Workflow-Oriented Framework for Asynchronous Human-AI Collaboration in Hybrid and Compute-Intensive HPC Environments	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.72	Brainrot: Deskilling and Addiction are Overlooked AI Risks	arxiv 2026-05-05	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.72	From Barrier to Bridge: The Case for AI Data Center/Power Grid Co-Design	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.72	AI-Generated Smells: An Analysis of Code and Architecture in LLM and Agent-Driven Development	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.72	Post Reasoning: Improving the Performance of Non-Thinking Models at No Cost	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.72	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-05-12	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.72	ROMER: Expert Replacement and Router Calibration for Robust MoE LLMs on Analog Compute-in-Memory Systems	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Will SpaceX complete a Starship integrated test flight reaching orbital insertion by June 14, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-16	246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.72	Will Anthropic release a new model stronger than Haiku 4.5 before June 16?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.72	Will an OpenAI or Anthropic employee comment on this market first?	manifold 2026-06-01	235_047 AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.72	SIRI: Self-Internalizing Reinforcement Learning with Intrinsic Skills for LLM Agent Training	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.72	Statistical Priors for Implicit Preferences: Decoupling Skill Selection as a Local Harness in Personal Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Representation Learning Enables Scalable Multitask Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	Catastrophic Forgetting as Accessibility Collapse: A Three-Level Framework for Knowledge Persistence in Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	When will consumer AI be able to read me a book	manifold 2026-04-25	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.72	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	AIs and Humans with Agency	arxiv 2026-05-04	241_003 Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet Eric Schmidt	AI	47%
0.72	Learning Reactive Dexterous Grasping via Hierarchical Task-Space RL Planning and Joint-Space QP Control	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Human-AI Co-Evolution and Epistemic Collapse: A Dynamical Systems Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_032 Exponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bottleneck of human progress away from human cognition and toward computational throughput. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	75%
0.72	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.72	Global AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026	manifold 2026-05-14	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.72	Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-15	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.72	Will SpaceX complete a Starship integrated test flight reaching orbital insertion by June 14, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-16	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.72	Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-28	CMQ_016 Post-AGI (2027+), a decade of human-led algorithmic progress will be compressed into ~1 year or less as AGIs automate AI research. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	33%
0.72	Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-28	ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	29%
0.72	June 2026 AI model releases	manifold 2026-05-28	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.72	June 2026 AI model releases	manifold 2026-05-28	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.72	Qwen-VLA: Unifying Vision-Language-Action Modeling across Tasks, Environments, and Robot Embodiments	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will Apple announce a major AI model partnership (e.g., OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic) at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-03	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.72	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	MAGE: Safeguarding LLM Agents against Long-Horizon Threats via Shadow Memory	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.72	CoRAL: Contact-Rich Adaptive LLM-based Control for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-08	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.72	Pathways to AGI	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.72	Layer Collapse in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.72	Building Interactive Real-Time Agents with Asynchronous I/O and Speculative Tool Calling	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Training ML Models with Predictable Failures	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.72	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-28	INF_044 US total energy consumption will rise by approximately 10% over the next decade — the largest sustained-growth period since mid-20th-century industrialization — driven by AI data centers, electrification of transport, and reindustrialization. Morgan Stanley	Energy	48%
0.72	Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.72	Agents' Last Exam	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.72	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 on any day between April 29 and July 31, 2026?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-04-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Humanoid robot walking around me within a year?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-26	247_044 Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments Mark Cuban	Robotics	28%
0.72	openai revenue miss ripples p 132038121.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.72	Humanoid robot walking around me within three years?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-04-30	247_044 Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments Mark Cuban	Robotics	28%
0.72	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Deco: Extending Personal Physical Objects into Pervasive AI Companion through a Dual-Embodiment Framework	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	MolmoAct2: Action Reasoning Models for Real-world Deployment	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Human-in-the-Loop Uncertainty Analysis in Self-Adaptive Robots Using LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.100.0	github_release 2026-05-06	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.72	Policy-Guided Stepwise Model Routing for Cost-Effective Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Intentmaking and Sensemaking: Human Interaction with AI-Guided Mathematical Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Agentic, Context-Aware Risk Intelligence in the Internet of Value	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.72	Active Contact Sensing for Robust Robot-to-Human Object Handover	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) (CIK 0001045810)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.72	Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-11	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.72	Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	54%
0.72	Harnessing Agentic Evolution	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.72	Composable Crystals: Controllable Materials Discovery via Concept Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.72	Will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before July 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-17	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 19?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Evolve as a Team: Collaborative Self-Evolution for LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.72	Parallax: Parameterized Local Linear Attention for Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-27	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Gaze2Act: Gaze-Conditioned Vision-Language-Action Policies for Interactive Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.72	Will an OpenAI or Anthropic employee comment on this market first?	manifold 2026-06-01	240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis	AI	54%
0.72	World-Task Factorization for Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	Multi-Agent Computer Use	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.72	Scaling Agentic Capabilities via Grounded Interaction Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.72	Before 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-05	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.72	Generalization of World Models under Environmental Variability for Vision-based Quadrotor Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-20	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.72	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.72	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Tailored Prompts, Targeted Protection: Vulnerability-Specific LLM Analysis for Smart Contracts	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.72	AIs and Humans with Agency	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	The Compliance Trap: How Structural Constraints Degrade Frontier AI Metacognition Under Adversarial Pressure	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.72	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.72	Coral: Cost-Efficient Multi-LLM Serving over Heterogeneous Cloud GPUs	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Litespark Inference on Consumer CPUs: Custom SIMD Kernels for Ternary Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.72	Constraint Decay: The Fragility of LLM Agents in Backend Code Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	HaM-World: Soft-Hamiltonian World Models with Selective Memory for Planning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	LiSA: Lifelong Safety Adaptation via Conservative Policy Induction	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.72	How many successful SpaceX launches in June 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-05-18	246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.72	Beyond Scaling: Agents Are Heading to the Edge	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.72	Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-30	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.72	Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-28	INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley	Energy	56%
0.72	ProjectionBench: Evaluating Scientific Hypothesis Generation in LLMs Under Progressive Information Disclosure	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Distributed Non-Uniform Scaling Control of Multi-Agent Formation with Dynamic Agent Joining	arxiv 2026-05-28	231_003 Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.72	Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-04	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.72	How many successful SpaceX launches in May 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-05-01	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	42%
0.72	Cerebras IPO before 2027?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.72	Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 16?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	S&p500 May 2026 prop bets	manifold 2026-05-17	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.72	ProjectionBench: Evaluating Scientific Hypothesis Generation in LLMs Under Progressive Information Disclosure	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.72	How Reliable Are AI Attackers Against a Fixed Vulnerable Target? A 400-Run Empirical Study of LLM Penetration Testing Consistency	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.72	Honest Lying: Understanding Memory Confabulation in Reflexive Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	Surfacing Isolated Learners with Outcome-Independent Mediation of Feedback between Teachers and Students Using AI	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on June 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	From Layers to Submodules: Rethinking Granularity in Replacement-Based LLM Compression	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	The End of Software Engineering: How AI Agents Are Fundamentally Restructuring the Software Paradigm	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_011 The vast majority of human programmers will be entirely replaced by AI within a single year — future programmer role transitions from debugger to 'conductor' directing autonomous agents to implement complex visions. Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	20%
0.72	3DThinkVLA: Endowing Vision-Language-Action Models with Latent 3D Priors via 3D-Thinking-Guided Co-training	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 29?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	May 2026 AI model releases	manifold 2026-04-30	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.71	Which sector will see the highest % of jobs displaced by AI in the US by end of Dec 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	IND_019 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... Morgan Stanley	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 6?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	StreakMind: AI detection and analysis of satellite streaks in astronomical images with automated database integration	arxiv 2026-05-05	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.71	Frontier Lag: A Bibliometric Audit of Capability Misrepresentation in Academic AI Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-05	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.71	Mean Mode Screaming: Mean--Variance Split Residuals for 1000-Layer Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.71	Rethinking RL for LLM Reasoning: It's Sparse Policy Selection, Not Capability Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	FDA ANDA212336: ANDA212336 ((unspecified)) — DR REDDYS LABS LTD	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.71	How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-05-15	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.71	FutureSim: Replaying World Events to Evaluate Adaptive Agents	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.71	FutureSim: Replaying World Events to Evaluate Adaptive Agents	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 19?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Auditing Asset-Specific Preferences in Financial Large Language Models: Evidence from Bitcoin Representations and Portfolio Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-02-08	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.71	S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-01	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.71	By the end of 2028, will the lowest cost way to generate AI compute be in space?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-03	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.71	Brainrot: Deskilling and Addiction are Overlooked AI Risks	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.71	RLDX-1 Technical Report	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.71	Human-Provenance Verification should be Treated as Labor Infrastructure in AI-Saturated Markets	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_027 Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum... Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.71	ORPilot: A Production-Oriented Agentic LLM-for-OR Tool for Optimization Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Latent Bridge: Feature Delta Prediction for Efficient Dual-System Vision-Language-Action Model Inference	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	A Semantic Autonomy Framework for VLM-Integrated Indoor Mobile Robots: Hybrid Deterministic Reasoning and Cross-Robot Adaptive Memory	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.71	MASPO: Joint Prompt Optimization for LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Human-AI Co-Evolution and Epistemic Collapse: A Dynamical Systems Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	Building Interactive Real-Time Agents with Asynchronous I/O and Speculative Tool Calling	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Embodied Neurocomputation: A Framework for Interfacing Biological Neural Cultures with Scaled Task-Driven Validation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Situational Awareness LP Q1 13F holdings public by May 24?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.71	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-14	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.71	Will Bitcoin hit $73,000 or $83,000 first?	manifold 2026-05-18	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Beyond Scaling: Agents Are Heading to the Edge	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.71	Agent Bazaar: Enabling Economic Alignment in Multi-Agent Marketplaces	arxiv 2026-05-17	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.71	June 2026 AI model releases	manifold 2026-05-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.71	Is ai going to be self repairing?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-25	230_038 AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.71	On the Limits of Token Reduction for Efficient Unified Vision Language Training	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Will Apple announce a major AI model partnership (e.g., OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic) at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-03	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.71	Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-03	235_047 AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will the S&P500 close at 7650.00 or higher in June 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-05	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.71	Emergent Language as an Approach to Conscious AI	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.71	Safe Embodied AI for Long-horizon Tasks: A Cross-layer Analysis of Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.71	Domain-Adapted Small Language Models with Hybrid Post-Processing: Achieving Cost-Efficient, Low-Latency Multi-Label Structured Prediction via LoRA Fine-Tuning on Scarce Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	OSCAR: Omni-Embodiment Action-Conditioned World Model for Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.71	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.71	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.71	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.71	A Workflow-Oriented Framework for Asynchronous Human-AI Collaboration in Hybrid and Compute-Intensive HPC Environments	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.71	Terminus-4B: Can a Smaller Model Replace Frontier LLMs at Agentic Execution Tasks?	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Toward a Community Roadmap for High Energy Physics and Artificial Intelligence in China and Beyond	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.71	Intentmaking and Sensemaking: Human Interaction with AI-Guided Mathematical Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.71	Position: Behavioural Assurance Cannot Verify the Safety Claims Governance Now Demands	arxiv 2026-05-14	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.71	Nvidia closes at $… in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.71	Beyond Scaling: Agents Are Heading to the Edge	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	Projectional Decoding: Towards Semantic-Aware LLM Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Learning to Choose: An Empowerment-Guided Multi-Agent System with semantic communication for Adaptive Method Selection	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.71	Will an OpenAI or Anthropic employee comment on this market first?	manifold 2026-06-01	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.71	Not All Errors Are Equal: A Systematic Study of Error Propagation in Large Language Model Inference	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	SeClaw: Spec-Driven Security Task Synthesis for Evaluating Autonomous Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.71	Learning from Saturated Data: Signals Beyond Correctness for LLM Training	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Vortex: Efficient and Programmable Sparse Attention Serving for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Microskill Architecture: A Modular Skill-Driven Framework for AI-Native Code Generation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Query-based Cross-Modal Projector Bolstering Mamba Multimodal LLM	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	☀️What will happen in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]	manifold 2026-05-01	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	On Training Large Language Models for Long-Horizon Tasks: An Empirical Study of Horizon Length	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	Beyond Specialization: Robust Reinforcement Learning Navigation via Procedural Map Generators	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	When will global population peak?	manifold 2026-05-06	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.71	Storage Is Not Memory: A Retrieval-Centered Architecture for Agent Recall	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.71	Ex Ante Evaluation of AI-Induced Idea Diversity Collapse	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_032 Exponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bottleneck of human progress away from human cognition and toward computational throughput. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	75%
0.71	Human-AI Co-Evolution and Epistemic Collapse: A Dynamical Systems Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.71	Human-AI Co-Evolution and Epistemic Collapse: A Dynamical Systems Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.71	Agentic, Context-Aware Risk Intelligence in the Internet of Value	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.71	Multi-Robot Coordination in V2X Environments	arxiv 2026-05-07	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%