Validations Queue

106,328 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 403 of 985, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.63polymarket
2025-11-11
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.63polymarket
2026-06-28
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.63polymarket
2026-06-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.63manifold
2026-07-04
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
FUT_003
Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
SEM_002
By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs).
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI56%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
240_013
Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs
Sam Altman
AI41%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
CMQ_015
Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI50%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
FUT_003
Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
229_044
Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks.
Brett Adcock
AI35%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
INF_009
The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI17%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
240_013
Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs
Sam Altman
AI41%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
AI_036
Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell...
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI49%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
INF_027
AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC.
Demis Hassabis
Biotech/Longevity38%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-01
233_021
AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.
Joe Liemandt
AI30%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-01
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-07-02
SEM_033
AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Physics56%
0.63polymarket
2026-03-26
234_034
Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs45%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-22
247_040
AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin
Alex Wissner-Gross
Crypto16%
0.63polymarket
2025-11-25
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-20
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks31%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-23
SEM_039
Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory.
Jack Dorsey
Semis/ASICs83%
0.63polymarket
2025-12-25
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets45%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-02
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-02
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.63polymarket
2025-11-12
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.63polymarket
2025-07-28
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.63
Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%)
manifold
2026-04-29
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.63manifold
2026-04-29
242_034
AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x)
Chamath Palihapitiya
Markets/Stocks38%
0.63manifold
2026-04-25
230_021
Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.
Peter Diamandis
Robotics36%
0.63manifold
2026-04-23
AUT_007
2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll...
Chamath Palihapitiya
Macro/Economy13%
0.63gdelt
2026-04-30
SEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.
Jensen Huang
Policy/Semis66%
0.63
gdelt
2026-04-30
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.63gdelt
2026-04-30
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.63gdelt
2026-04-30
240_026
Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks14%
0.63gdelt
2026-04-30
AUT_024
H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int...
Morgan Stanley
AI42%
0.63
gdelt
2026-04-30
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.63polymarket
2025-09-29
S_RECESSION_2027
NBER recession declared 2027
macro_recession30%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-25
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63polymarket
2025-07-03
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.63
Bitcoin $65K in May?(market prob: 9%)
manifold
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63
Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%)
manifold
2026-05-01
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.63
Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%)
manifold
2026-05-01
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto29%
0.63manifold
2026-05-01
238_047
US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar
Emad Mostaque
Energy45%
0.63manifold
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2028
First $1T+ IPO in 2028
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-01
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.63manifold
2026-05-02
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-27
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-27
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-01
247_040
AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin
Alex Wissner-Gross
Crypto16%
0.63manifold
2026-05-03
238_047
US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar
Emad Mostaque
Energy45%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-03
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.63polymarket
2026-04-28
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.63polymarket
2025-10-09
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63manifold
2026-05-05
FUT_002
Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali...
Superforecaster Community
AI40%
0.63manifold
2026-05-05
246_007
SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks28%
0.63
FDA ANDA202426: SITAGLIPTIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — APOTEX
fda
2026-04-30
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.63
FDA ANDA219897: PIMOZIDE (PIMOZIDE) — NOVITIUM PHARMA
fda
2026-04-13
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.63
FDA ANDA079162: TOPIRAMATE (TOPIRAMATE) — INVAGEN PHARMS
fda
2026-04-24
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.63github_release
2026-03-25
234_017
OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks
OpenAI Codex Lead
AI33%
0.63github_release
2026-02-14
232_012
US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets.
Ben Horowitz
Geopolitics44%
0.63github_release
2026-02-05
234_017
OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks
OpenAI Codex Lead
AI33%
0.63github_release
2026-01-27
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.63github_release
2026-01-09
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.63github_release
2025-12-16
232_012
US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets.
Ben Horowitz
Geopolitics44%
0.63github_release
2025-11-13
241_037
Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights
Eric Schmidt
AI49%
0.63github_release
2026-04-13
236_028
AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately
Andrew Yang
Consumer51%
0.63github_release
2025-12-01
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.63github_release
2024-02-26
238_025
AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level
Emad Mostaque
AI45%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-05
247_038
Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor)
Michael Saylor
Crypto48%
0.63polymarket
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.63manifold
2026-05-05
229_008
By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).
Brett Adcock
Biotech/Longevity44%
0.63manifold
2026-05-05
234_051
Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking
Alex Wissner-Gross
Consumer38%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
AUT_010
As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton...
Daniella Amodei
AI56%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
ROB_025
Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati...
Peter Dannenberg
Biotech/Longevity70%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_058
Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency.
Alex Finn
AI/Compute59%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
INF_027
AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC.
Demis Hassabis
Biotech/Longevity38%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
248_022
Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks42%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-05
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.63arxiv
2026-05-04
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%