Predictions
68 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 231_037 | Space | SpaceX | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 240_028 | Space | AI-scaling | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 246_015 | Space | SpaceX | Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 248_001 | Space | SpaceX | Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual sate… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 248_004 | Space | SpaceX | Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 248_041 | Space | orbital-AI | Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute t… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| COD_SPC_003 | Space | Starship-orbital-refueling | SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant… | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| IND_016 | Space | five-uncrewed-Starships-Mars-2026 | By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Stars… | Gwynne Shotwell | 5/5 | A | 12.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| ROB_011 | Space | Optimus-Mars-2026 | An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomo… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 8.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| SEM_044 | Space | SpaceX | Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating l… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 235_016 | Space | SpaceX | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Peter Diamandis | 2/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| 229_035 | Space | humanoids | Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of spac… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_036 | Space | AI-scaling | Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_029 | Space | orbital-AI | Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_045 | Space | orbital-AI | Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physic… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 234_049 | Space | humanoids | First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot con… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_002 | Space | autonomous | Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_009 | Space | orbital-AI | We will have multiple Dyson swarms | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 242_039 | Space | AI-timing | NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars | Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator) | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_040 | Space | economy | Mars/Europa/planets will have ubiquitous microbial life | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_041 | Space | AI-timing | United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 246_014 | Space | orbital-AI | Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_019 | Space | AI-timing | Interstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying u… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 246_054 | Space | SpaceX | Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| COD_SPC_006 | Space | commercial-space-station | Vast Haven-1 reaches orbit by end 2026 | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 50.0% | pending | 2026-05-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 241_025 | Space | AGI | Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_054 | Space | AI-timing | Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_055 | Space | AI-timing | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_060 | Space | AI-timing | Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_021 | Space | AI-scaling | Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dolla… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_046 | Space | AI-scaling | Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| COD_SPC_004 | Space | Europa-Clipper | Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 | Codex Research Pack | 5/5 | — | 95.0% | pending | 2026-12-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 231_036 | Space | AI-timing | Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 246_012 | Space | orbital-AI | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| AI_020 | Space | Vera-Rubin-Space-Module | NVIDIA will launch a 'space computing' push via the specialized Vera Rubin Sp… | NVIDIA | 3/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| COD_SPC_001 | Space | Artemis-replan | Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a … | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 62.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| CYB_030 | Space | space-compute-heat-dissipation | Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Ru… | Jensen Huang | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_018 | Space | orbital-DCs | SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 s… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| SPC_012 | Space | SpaceX-orbital-refueling-2027 | SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical pr… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 232_051 | Space | SpaceX | Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Sta… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| COD_SPC_007 | Space | ESCAPADE-New-Glenn | NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 75.0% | pending | 2027-09-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| 232_037 | Space | AI-timing | Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2032-10-31 |
| 242_005 | Space | SpaceX | Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 242_038 | Space | SpaceX | Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 242_051 | Space | orbital-AI | Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 246_013 | Space | orbital-AI | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 248_002 | Space | AI-timing | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial network… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| COD_SPC_002 | Space | Artemis-lunar-landing | The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| COD_SPC_005 | Space | Dragonfly-Titan | NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 70.0% | pending | 2028-07-01 – 2028-07-31 |
| 246_043 | Space | AI-scaling | Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |