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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Will Kyler Murray be traded?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-26 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.56 | IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 85%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.56 | San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Will Madina Okot win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2025-12-30 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2025-12-30 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 245_017 Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-19 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship?(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.55 | Penguins vs. Flyers(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Penguins vs. Flyers(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | |
| 0.55 | Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Massimo Giunta(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Abidjan 2: Calvin Hemery vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Galions vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LFL Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims)(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-04-11 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Abidjan 2: Niels Visker vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Spurs (-13.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 236_025 Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes Andrew Yang | Real Estate | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Flyers vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.55 | Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% |