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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	MP3: Multi-Period Pattern Pre-training forSpatio-Temporal Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	LLM-Powered Personalized Glycemic Assessment in Type 2 Diabetes with Wearable Sensor Data	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.61	Loss-Shift Transfer via Bayes Quotients	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.61	Detecting Explanatory Insufficiency in Learned Representations: A Framework for Representational Vigilance	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Disparate Impact in Synthetic Data Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Selecting Samples on Graphs: A Unified Dataset Pruning Framework for Lossless Training Acceleration	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Graph Reinforcement Learning for Calibration-Aware Quantum Circuit Routing	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Physics-Informed Neural Networks and Radial Basis Functions for PDEs with Dirac Delta Sources	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Towards Provably Fair Machine Learning: Bayesian Approaches For Consistent and Transparent Predictions	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Towards Provably Fair Machine Learning: Bayesian Approaches For Consistent and Transparent Predictions	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	Rubric-Guided Self-Distillation: Post-Training Without Rubric Verifiers	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	Operads for compositional reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	MÖVE: A Holistic LLM Benchmark for the German Public Sector	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	SafeLLM: Extraction as a Hallucination-Resistant Alternative to Rewriting in Safety-Critical Settings	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	EmbodiSteer: Steering Embodiment-Agnostic Visuomotor Policies with Joint-Space Guidance for Zero-Shot Cross-Embodiment Deployment	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Double copy of form factors with multiple operator insertions	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FDA ANDA219146: GADOBUTROL (GADOBUTROL) — ZENARA	fda 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Anthropic legally challenge the US government directive to suspend access to Fable?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-13	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.61	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will England win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.61	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) (CIK 0001780312)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d V0.7.8	github_release 2024-09-13	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d V0.7.8	github_release 2024-09-13	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.6.2	github_release 2022-04-28	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.4.0	github_release 2021-02-09	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.61	Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	The Importance of Phase in Neural Representations: An Internal Oppenheim-Lim Test of Image Classifiers	arxiv 2026-06-15	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	The Importance of Phase in Neural Representations: An Internal Oppenheim-Lim Test of Image Classifiers	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	How Much Do Reviews Really Contribute? A Study on Text-Enriched Matrix Factorization for Recommendations	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.61	MA-SBI: Misspecification-Aware Simulation-Based Inference via Side-Channel Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Semantic Flip: Synthetic OOD Generation for Robust Refusal in Embodied Question Answering and Spatial Localization	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	TNODEV: Toolbox for Neural ODE Verification	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Direction-Conditioned Policies via Compositional Subgoal Scoring for Online Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Post-Hoc Merging is Not Enough: Many-Shot Model Merging with Loss-Gap Balancing	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Lost at the End: Primacy Bias in Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	Unified Multimodal Model for Brain MRI Imputation and Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Who Should Lead Decoding Now? Tracking Reliable Trajectories for Ensembling Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Latent Thought Flow: Efficient Latent Reasoning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	Latent Thought Flow: Efficient Latent Reasoning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	PreLort: Prefix-Nested LoRA for Federated Fine-Tuning under Rank Heterogeneity	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Integrated Marketing Attribution: A Bayesian Framework for Privacy-Safe Granular Measurement Anchored in MMM	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_049 Traditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platform distribution will capture monopolistic shares of the consumer AI agent market via deep OS-level integration. Jason Calacanis	AI/Markets	50%
0.61	STAR-NT: Spatiotemporal Acceleration of Real-Time Neural Transparency Rendering	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Elastic ODYN: Differentiable Optimization for Infeasible Control and Learning in Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Petrov-Galerkin Variational Physics-Informed Neural Network Framework for Two-Dimensional Singularly Perturbed Problems	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	Graphical conditional generative modeling for digital twin modeling	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	When Confidence Lacks Concepts: Interpretable OOD Detection via Representation Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Polynomial-Time Mistake-Bounded Language Generation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Learning ground state observables from quantum computing experiments	arxiv 2026-06-14	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	p-PSO: A Penalized Particle Swarm Optimization Technique for Finding D-Optimal Designs with Mixed Factors in Generalized Linear Models	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	DEEPRUBRIC: Evidence-Tree Rubric Supervision for Efficient Reinforcement Learning of Deep Research Agents	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	SAG: SQL-Retrieval Augmented Generation with Query-Time Dynamic Hyperedges	arxiv 2026-06-14	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	BALTO: Balanced Token-Level Policy Optimization for Hallucination Mitigation	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	ttda704 at SemEval-2026 Task 4: Modeling Narrative Structures via Pseudonymization and Multi-View Sentence Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	ttda704 at SemEval-2026 Task 4: Modeling Narrative Structures via Pseudonymization and Multi-View Sentence Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Automated Digital Twin Construction for Highway Scenarios Using LiDAR Point Clouds and OpenStreetMap	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	PolyMerge: Compressing 3D Gaussian Splats with Polytope Coverings for Provably Safe Resource-Constrained Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	FDA NDA210365: EPIDIOLEX (CANNABIDIOL) — JAZZ PHARMS RES	fda 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	RubricsTree: Scalable and Evolving Open-Ended Evaluation of Personal Health Agents across Health Memory and Medical Skills	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Ternary Mamba: Grouped Quantization-Aware Training of W1.58A16 State Space Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	MathVis-Fine: Aligning Visual Supervision with Necessity via Progressive Dependency-Guided Training for Multimodal Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.61	StepGuard: Guarding Web Navigation via Single-Step Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	LiveStarPro: Proactive Streaming Video Understanding with Hierarchical Memory for Long-Horizon Streams	arxiv 2026-06-16	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Bridging Spatial And Frequency Views For Disaster Assessment: Benefits And Limitations	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	PowerOPD: Stabilizing On-Policy Distillation with Bounded Power Transformation	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	NoiseTilt: Noise-Tilted Reverse Kernels for Diffusion Reward Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Revisiting Structural Dependency in Autoregressive Multi-Task Table Recognition via Order-Independent Cell-Level Representations	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Meta-classification of one-class classification models using ranking correlation and nearest neighbor	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	When Dynamics Models Read the Wrong Time Steps: Label-Free Event Credit Re-Anchoring for Robust Global Readouts	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Non-negative Matrix Factorisation with Topological Regularisation	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	CheckMIABench: Firm Foundations For Membership Inference Attacks on Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Agentic Discovery of Non-Canonical Antimicrobial Peptides with AMPGAN v3	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Integrated Marketing Attribution: A Bayesian Framework for Privacy-Safe Granular Measurement Anchored in MMM	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_049 Traditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platform distribution will capture monopolistic shares of the consumer AI agent market via deep OS-level integration. Jason Calacanis	AI/Markets	50%
0.61	LLMs Infer Cultural Context but Fail to Apply It When Responding	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Prompt Perturbation for Reliable LLM Evaluation over Comparison Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Evaluating Second-Order Bias of LLMs Through Epistemic Entitlement	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	Abstention-Aware Personalized Object Rearrangement via Uncertainty-Guided LLM Assistance	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Spread: Mexico (-2.5)(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	OneCanvas: 3D Scene Understanding via Panoramic Reprojection	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Hardware- and Vision-in-the-Loop Validation of Deep Monocular Pose Estimation for Autonomous Maritime UAV Flight	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.61	A Clinician-Centered Pipeline for Annotation and Evaluation in Ultrasound AI Studies	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.61	Rescaling MLM-Head for Neural Sparse Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Bayesian Anytime Pareto Set Identification for Multi-Objective Multi-Armed Bandits	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Bounded Context Management for Tabular Foundation Models on Stream Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	CAOA -- Completion-Assisted Object-CAD Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	CaVe-VLM-CoT: An Interpretable Vision-Language Model Framework	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	ASTRA: A Scalable Next-Generation ATCO Training Simulator with Autonomous Simpilots	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Identifying Structural Biases from Causal Mechanism Shifts	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Stealthy World Model Manipulation via Data Poisoning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.61	Graph-ESBMC-PLC: Formal Verification of Graphical PLCopen XML Ladder Diagram Programs Using SMT-Based Model Checking	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Graph-ESBMC-PLC: Formal Verification of Graphical PLCopen XML Ladder Diagram Programs Using SMT-Based Model Checking	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	70%
0.61	SAMA: Semantic Anchor-aligned Augmentation for Unified Low-Resource Multimodal Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Output Vector Editing for Memorization Mitigation in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	80%
0.61	LLMs Struggle to Measure What Distinguishes Students of Different Proficiency Levels: A Study of Item Discrimination in Reading Comprehension Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	LLMs Struggle to Measure What Distinguishes Students of Different Proficiency Levels: A Study of Item Discrimination in Reading Comprehension Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	TactSpace: Learning a Physics-enriched Shared Latent Space for Tactile Sim-to-Real Transfer	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Selective Unit-Cell Actuation in Lattice Structures for Distributed Morphology in Soft Robots	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	Leveraging systems' non-linearity to tackle the scarcity of data in the design of Intelligent Fault Diagnosis Systems	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.61	Beyond Accuracy: Measuring Logical Compliance of Predictive Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	HilDA: Hierarchical Distillation with Diffusion for Advancing Self-Supervised LiDAR Pre-trainin	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Confidence Calibration for Multimodal LLMs: An Empirical Study through Medical VQA	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	SafeSpec: Fast and Safe LLM via Dynamic Reflective Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	SafeSpec: Fast and Safe LLM via Dynamic Reflective Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Manifold Bandits: Bayesian Curriculum Learning over the Latent Geometry of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	VOiLA: Vectorized Online Planning with Learned Diffusion Model for POMDP Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	ITNet: A Learnable Integral Transform That Subsumes Convolution, Attention, and Recurrence	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	UNIEGO: Proxies as Mediators for Unified Egocentric Video Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Neural network surrogates with uncertainty quantification for inverse problems in partial differential equations	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Judging to Improve: A De-biased VLM-as-3D-Judge Protocol for Single-Image 3D Generation	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Off-Policy Evaluation for Missingness-Aware Policies in MDPs with Rewards Missing Not at Random	arxiv 2026-06-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Towards Graph-Based Deep Learning for Map Generalization: Insights from Building Footprints Simplification and Aggregation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Towards Graph-Based Deep Learning for Map Generalization: Insights from Building Footprints Simplification and Aggregation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Physics-Informed Neural Network with Squeeze-Excitation-like Attention	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Low-Burden Data Augmentation for Dysarthric ASR via Zero-Shot Voice Cloning	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	Comparing Linear Probes with Mahalanobis Cosine Similarity	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Comparing Linear Probes with Mahalanobis Cosine Similarity	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.61	Light-weight Pronunciation Assessment via Discrete Speech Token Surprisal	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	From 50K to 8.2 Million in 24 Hours: Vozinha's Algorithmic Consecration and the Multilingual Making of World Cup Visibility	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.61	ESBMC-GraphPLC: Formal Verification of Graphical PLCopen XML Ladder Diagram Programs Using SMT-Based Model Checking	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	VFILC: Accurate Frequency Extrapolations in Imitation Learning via Sampling Frequency ILC	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Constitutive birefringence and critical curves in the rotating García--Díaz black hole	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	FDA ANDA075468: CLONAZEPAM (CLONAZEPAM) — RUBICON RESEARCH	fda 2026-06-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will France win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2025-12-19	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	When will Earth-originating life become Kardashev 0.9 total or higher?	manifold 2026-06-20	IND_022 AGI arrives before 2029 (Turing test); true Singularity (ASI) occurs in 2040s — total human-machine convergence enabling: mental transfer from brain to brain, integration of nanobots into human bloodstream for perfect biological health maintenance, ach... Ray Kurzweil	Biotech/Longevity	23%
0.61	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.61	Norway leading at halftime?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will I be convinced that an X user was banned from X for using Birdclaw in 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-22	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.61	Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?	manifold 2026-06-23	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.61	TailorMind: Towards Preference-Aligned Multimodal Content Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Kamera: Unified Position-Invariant Multimodal KV Cache for Training-Free Reuse	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	MotionHalluc: Diagnosing Kinematic Hallucinations in Fine-Grained Motion Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Some Results about the Expressivity of Preference-Incomplete Structured Argumentation Frameworks	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Prime Fourier Embeddings: A Principled Basis for Modular Arithmetic	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	From Fragments to Paths: Task-Level Context Recovery for Large Industrial Codebases	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	CLIP-guided Diffusion Model for Backdoor Generation in Sensor-based Human Activity Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.61	CLIP-guided Diffusion Model for Backdoor Generation in Sensor-based Human Activity Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Safety-Aware Evaluation of LLM-Generated Driver Intervention Messages through Multi-Task Risk Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Quantifying the Agreement Between Data-Influence and Data-Similarity to Understand LLM Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Development and Design of FLKit: A Structured Onboarding Toolkit for Federated Learning in Health and Life Sciences	arxiv 2026-06-22	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.61	Ultra-Peripheral Collisions as a Nuclear-Structure Interferometer with Interpretable Multitask Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	CITADEL: CSI-Based Jamming Detection and Open-Set Classification for IIoT Networks	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.61	Towards Robust Personalized Federated Learning: Vulnerability Assessment and Defense Co-Design	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.61	From Complaint Narratives to Monetary Relief: A Hybrid Machine Learning Framework for CFPB Consumer Complaints	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.61	A Markov Chain Approach to Preference Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Scalable Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning for Diffusion Policies via Adjoint Matching	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Scalable Bayesian Additive Models for Stellar Flare Detection via Amortized Gaussian Process Inference and Hidden Markov Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	Stationary Robust Mean-Field Games under Model Mismatches	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Asymptotic Signal Subspace Recovery in Softmax Attention Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Synthesizing the Lombard Effect: Multi-Level Control of Speech Clarity and Vocal Effort in TTS	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	From Speech to Text Corpora: Evaluating ASR-Based Data Acquisition for Low-Resource Fongbe and Hausa	arxiv 2026-06-20	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	ARP: Enhancing Quantized Skill Abstractions via Visual Alignment and Iterative Refinement for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FDA ANDA087393: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA NDA211913: ABSORICA LD (ISOTRETINOIN) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-06-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA040050: METHADOSE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	facebookresearch/tensor-layouts v0.3.2	github_release 2026-05-15	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Free Lottery (radiation domination end)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-24	241_008 AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible Eric Schmidt	AI	43%
0.61	Solving Inverse Problems of Chaotic Systems with Bidirectional Conditional Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-23	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Assessing Distribution Shift in Human Activity Recognition for Domain Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Task Decomposition for Efficient Annotation	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Cost-Optimal Decision Diagrams for Stochastic Boolean Function Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Infinitesimal Causality	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Real-Time Interactive Music Generation via Data-Free Streaming Consistency Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Cyclic Denoising Reveals Ultrastable Memories in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	Forget Without Compromise: Nexus Sampling for Streaming KV-Cache Eviction Under Fixed Budgets	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	KLip-PPO: A per-sample KL perspective on PPO-Clip	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Reconstructing GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage with Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks: An Application to South America	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Less is More: Quality-Aware Training Data Selection for Scientific Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Same Lesson, Different Story: Cross-Lingual Reconstruction of Cultural Narratives in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Cross-Lingual Exploration for Parametric Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Beyond Logprobs: A Multi-Signal Confidence Engine for LLM-Based Document Field Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Meet UD_Czech-PDTC: A Large and Genre-Rich Treebank in Universal Dependencies	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FDA ANDA211748: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALKEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA040800: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ACTAVIS ELIZABETH	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%