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86,658 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 179 of 183, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Do you like 58% odds?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 240_023 45% of dementia cases are entirely preventable Dr. Don Mucalem | Biotech/Longevity | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Will the UzChess Cup (Masters division) go to tiebreaks?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-14 | COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack | Geopolitics | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Will greyhound racing be banned in the US by the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.55 | Will Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock be on the Democratic ticket in 2028?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.55 | Win by betting "yes"(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 239_026 Future will be very entertaining Elon Musk | Other | 55% | |
| 0.55 | Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before Americans?(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.55 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Haaland play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by August 31?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 248_043 Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. Dave Blundin | Robotics | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | Estevao plays in the 2026 World Cup(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 234_029 Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 30% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | humanoid_deployment | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Will the montreal canadiens win the stanley cup in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I get a 5 on AP Chem?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-06 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-06 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I get an 100 on my Arabic Midterm?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | Free Lottery (KM3NeT)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 247_022 Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% |