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83,930 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 160 of 179, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.56 | Will any 2026 World Cup match be disrupted by security or weather?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | CMQ_012 AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Will there be 4 hat tricks in the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-17 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Win by betting "yes"(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque | AI | 74% | ||
| 0.56 | Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | will x have a significant other
by the end of ross(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. Peter Diamandis | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will Claude Sonnet 5 be released before June 28?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Mamdanis Endorsements for house all win?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | WIIL I get first of my bronze league this week? 🩶(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get the Manifold Hat (Merch) By EOY?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 240_051 After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I exercise every single day next week?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I stick to my lecture protocol and preparation next week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 230_041 Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Evan Li’s text to his EX gain a response(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 231_052 Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 31% |