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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-19 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 241_061 China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Pistons (-2.5)(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Forsaken vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | |
| 0.58 | 76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.58 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Isurus vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Vit Kopriva(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-15 | 231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. 76ers(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5)(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5)(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2025-09-15 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will América FC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Paris: Diane Parry vs Chloe Paquet(market prob: 58%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-22 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | GTA VI released before June 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-05-02 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will Putin visit China by May 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Will Putin visit China by May 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Gauff vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 21.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-10-22 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jakob Glesnes win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-20 | 238_068 Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) Mark Pack Donovan | Macro/Economy | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 241_032 World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale Eric Schmidt | AI | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will David Njoku play for Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% |