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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Iran Nuke before 2027?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2025-11-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.58 | Cholet vs. Paris Basketball(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | |
| 0.58 | Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will De'Von Achane be traded?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Canada (-3.5)(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Canada (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Modi out by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-11-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.58 | Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.58 | Will there be 40+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Trump out as President by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.58 | Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.58 | Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Utah vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% |