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47,884 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 5 of 222, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 10?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-05-14	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Physics Is All You Need? A Case Study in Physicist-Supervised AI Development of Scientific Software	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.71	RoboWits: Unexpected Challenges for Robotic Creative Problem Solving	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	Gram: Assessing sabotage propensities via automated alignment auditing	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.71	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.71	Algorithmic algorithm development with LLMs: A Case Study on LLM-Usage for Contraction Order Optimization in Tensor Networks	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.71	Collaborative Space Object Detection with Multi-Satellite Viewpoints in LEO Constellations	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.71	CRAM: Centroid-Routing and Adaptive MoE for Multimodal Continual Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	MiCU: End-to-End Smart Home Command Understanding with Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.71	LLM Self-Recognition: Steering and Retrieving Activation Signatures	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Do More Agents Help? Controlled and Protocol-Aligned Evaluation of LLM Agent Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.71	From Prediction to Self: Developmental Conditions for Agency in Minimal Neural Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	elon musk cross openai altman	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.71		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.71	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will an AI system discover information theory from first principles before 2031?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-01	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.71	By the end of 2028, will the lowest cost way to generate AI compute be in space?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-03	ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	29%
0.71	Revisiting the Travel Planning Capabilities of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Evaluating Prompting and Execution-Based Methods for Deterministic Computation in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Human-Provenance Verification should be Treated as Labor Infrastructure in AI-Saturated Markets	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_029 'Idea Guys' vindication — because AI handles rote execution of complex engineering and software tasks, human vision and imagination become the only remaining scarcity in the economy; imagination replaces coding skill as the premium professional currency. Sam Altman	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.71	Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-07	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.71	Anticipating Innovation Using Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.71	Ex Ante Evaluation of AI-Induced Idea Diversity Collapse	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.71	Agentic AIs Are the Missing Paradigm for Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.71	More Is Not Always Better: Cross-Component Interference in LLM Agent Scaffolding	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	RobotEQ: Transitioning from Passive Intelligence to Active Intelligence in Embodied AI	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Beyond Parameter Aggregation: Semantic Consensus for Federated Fine-Tuning of LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.71	Position: Behavioural Assurance Cannot Verify the Safety Claims Governance Now Demands	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.71	Natural Synthesis: Outperforming Reactive Synthesis Tools with Large Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.71	ASH: Agents that Self-Hone via Embodied Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.71	Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-28	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.71	AgentSchool: An LLM-Powered Multi-Agent Simulation for Education	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.71	Reasoning-preserved Efficient Distillation of Large Language Models via Activation-aware Initialization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_006 OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. Sam Altman	AI/Finance	64%
0.71	Bitcoin price on June 30?	manifold 2026-06-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Bitcoin $65K in June?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Evaluating Real-World Generalizability of Algorithm Selection Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.71	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.71	ITP-STDP: An Intrinsic-Timing Power-of-Two Learning Engine for On-Chip SNN Training	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.71	VISTA: Vision-Grounded and Physics-Validated Adaptation of UMI data for VLA Training	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.71	Will the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-04-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-04-25	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.71	Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-04-24	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.71	prediction spacex ipo reach 1 125000963.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.71	Bitcoin $65K in May?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-01	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.71	Cerebras IPO before 2027?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.71	Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.71	Mechanical Conscience: A Mathematical Framework for Dependability of Machine Intelligenc	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.71	HalluScan: A Systematic Benchmark for Detecting and Mitigating Hallucinations in Instruction-Following LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	UFAL-CUNI at SemEval-2026 Task 11: An Efficient Modular Neuro-symbolic Method for Syllogistic Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-08	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.71	GlazyBench: A Benchmark for Ceramic Glaze Property Prediction and Image Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.71	Agentic AIs Are the Missing Paradigm for Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.71	From Language to Logic: A Theoretical Architecture for VLM-Grounded Safe Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.71	NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) (CIK 0001045810)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.71	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.71	MEME: Multi-entity & Evolving Memory Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-02-04	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.71	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Before 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-05	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.71	Towards a Data Flywheel for Embodied Intelligence in Logistics	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.71	How long will the Anthropic post-IPO lock-up period be?	manifold 2026-04-27	247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.71	micron technology growth exploding why 135145048.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.71	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Bridging the Embodiment Gap: Disentangled Cross-Embodiment Video Editing	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.71	Instrumental Choices: Measuring the Propensity of LLM Agents to Pursue Instrumental Behaviors	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.71	From Agent Loops to Deterministic Graphs: Execution Lineage for Reproducible AI-Native Work	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	RobotEQ: Transitioning from Passive Intelligence to Active Intelligence in Embodied AI	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.71	Will there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-16	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Agent Bazaar: Enabling Economic Alignment in Multi-Agent Marketplaces	arxiv 2026-05-17	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	AgentDoG 1.5: A Lightweight and Scalable Alignment Framework for AI Agent Safety and Security	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.71	The New Pro Se: Generative AI and the Surge in Federal Civil Self-Representation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.71	Will MNX let people trade Anthropic futures before Anthropic goes public?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-06-02	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.71	Harness-1: Reinforcement Learning for Search Agents with State-Externalizing Harnesses	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.71	Self-Revising Discovery Systems for Science: A Categorical Framework for Agentic Artificial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	IMWM: Intuition Models Complement World Models for Latent Planning	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-03	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.71	Longevity escape velocity before 2030?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-04	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.71	Before 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-05	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.71	CollabSim: A CSCW-Grounded Methodology for Investigating Collaborative Competence of LLM Agents through Controlled Multi-Agent Experiments	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	AdaPlanBench: Evaluating Adaptive Planning in Large Language Model Agents under World and User Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	VASO: Formally Verifiable Self-Evolving Skills for Physical AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.71	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-08-07	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-20	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.71	Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-04-25	FUT_005 Emergence of 'Living Intelligence' 2026-2031: violent transformative convergence between biological science, silicon-based sensor networks, and algorithmic orchestration — biological cells programmed with same precision as silicon computers. Living cel... Amy Webb	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.71	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.71	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.71	Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	How many successful SpaceX launches in May 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-05-01	248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. Peter Diamandis	Space	79%
0.71	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.78.0	github_release 2026-02-05	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.71	Redefining AI Red Teaming in the Agentic Era: From Weeks to Hours	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.71	What Happens Inside Agent Memory? Circuit Analysis from Emergence to Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	ARIS: Autonomous Research via Adversarial Multi-Agent Collaboration	arxiv 2026-05-04	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.71	Will Bitcoin close above $90,000 on any day between May 8 and July 31, 2026?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-10	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.71	Which prediction markets IPO in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.71	Will Polymarket IPO on December 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.71	ROMER: Expert Replacement and Router Calibration for Robust MoE LLMs on Analog Compute-in-Memory Systems	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.71	How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-05-15	229_046 Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.71	Self-Regulated Learning in Essay Writing: Consistency of Strategies and Impact on Outcomes	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.71	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.71	BitTP: The Lightweight Trajectory Prediction Model with BitLLM for Edge-Devices	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Reliable Reasoning with Large Language Models via Preference-Based Maximum Satisfiability	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Opt-Verifier: Unleashing the Power of LLMs for Optimization Modeling via Dual-Side Verification	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Attention Asymmetry in AI Layoff Discourse on X: A Computational Analysis of Capital vs Labour Amplification	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_019 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... Morgan Stanley	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-30	240_027 SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	74%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Towards Healthy Evolution: Exploring the Role and Mechanisms of Human-Agent Interaction in Self-Evolving Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.71	When Tools Fail: Benchmarking Dynamic Replanning and Anomaly Recovery in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	CASS-RTL: Correctness-Aware Subspace Steering for RTL Generation with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.71	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.71	Mechanical Conscience: A Mathematical Framework for Dependability of Machine Intelligenc	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.71	Human-Provenance Verification should be Treated as Labor Infrastructure in AI-Saturated Markets	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Stable Agentic Control: Tool-Mediated LLM Architecture for Autonomous Cyber Defense	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.71	AcademiClaw: When Students Set Challenges for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.71	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.71	Automated alignment is harder than you think	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.71	VibeServe: Can AI Agents Build Bespoke LLM Serving Systems?	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.71	Agentic AIs Are the Missing Paradigm for Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.71	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	The Diffusion Encoder	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.71	Embodied Neurocomputation: A Framework for Interfacing Biological Neural Cultures with Scaled Task-Driven Validation	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.71	The Efficiency Gap in Byte Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	54%
0.71	How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-05-15	229_023 First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.71	Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-15	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	41%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 21?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	How many successful SpaceX launches in June 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-05-18	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	22%
0.71	Temporal Stability and Few-Shot Prompting in Math Task Assessment	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.71	Q-ANCHOR: Federated Quantum Learning with ZNE-guided Correction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.71	ElegantVLA: Learning When to Think for Efficient Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.104.0	github_release 2026-05-21	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.71	Emergent Language as an Approach to Conscious AI	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Towards Healthy Evolution: Exploring the Role and Mechanisms of Human-Agent Interaction in Self-Evolving Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Framing, Judging, Steering: An Assessable Competency Model for Teach-ing Students to Reason With Generative AI	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.71	GenAutoML: An Agentic Framework for Dynamic Architecture Generation and Optimization in Time-Series Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Accelerating and Scaling MPC-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Humanoid Locomotion and Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	openai revenue miss ripples p 132038121.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_006 OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. Sam Altman	AI/Finance	64%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.71	Musk v. openAI trial prop bets [add answers]	manifold 2026-04-30	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.97.0	github_release 2026-04-23	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.71	Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.71	A Workflow-Oriented Framework for Asynchronous Human-AI Collaboration in Hybrid and Compute-Intensive HPC Environments	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Enhancing RL Generalizability in Robotics through SHAP Analysis of Algorithms and Hyperparameters	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.71	AIs and Humans with Agency	arxiv 2026-05-04	237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin	AI	47%
0.71	The Compliance Trap: How Structural Constraints Degrade Frontier AI Metacognition Under Adversarial Pressure	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.71	MolmoAct2: Action Reasoning Models for Real-world Deployment	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	RLearner-LLM: Balancing Logical Grounding and Fluency in Large Language Models via Hybrid Direct Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Will Apple announce Vision Pro 2 (or any new Vision Pro hardware) at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-08	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	54%
0.71	Agentic AIs Are the Missing Paradigm for Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Multi-Stream LLMs: Unblocking Language Models with Parallel Streams of Thoughts, Inputs and Outputs	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	The Expressivity Boundary of Probabilistic Circuits: A Comparison with Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.71	ASH: Agents that Self-Hone via Embodied Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will Anthropic release a new model stronger than Haiku 4.5 before June 16?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-16	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.71	ESI-Bench: Towards Embodied Spatial Intelligence that Closes the Perception-Action Loop	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Unlocking the Working Memory of Large Language Models for Latent Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Locally Coherent, Globally Incoherent: Bounding Compositional Incoherence in Multi-Component LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	MOC: Multi-Order Communication in LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	MLLM-Microscope: Unlocking Hidden Structure Within Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Benchmark Everything Everywhere All at Once	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Risk Assessment of Autonomous Driving: Integrating Technical Failures, Ethical Dilemmas, and Policy Frameworks	arxiv 2026-06-04	243_011 Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.71	Emergent Language as an Approach to Conscious AI	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.71	Human Oversight and Overload: Two Hidden and Costly Burdens of AI-Assisted Software Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-04	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.71	SubtleMemory: A Benchmark for Fine-Grained Relational Memory Discrimination in Long-Horizon AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.71	The End of Software Engineering: How AI Agents Are Fundamentally Restructuring the Software Paradigm	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.71	Predictable Scaling Laws of Optimal Hyperparameters for LLM Continued Pre-training	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	on the risks of ai in the workplace.htm	gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%