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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.62	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 59752(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-11	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.62	Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.62	facebookresearch/spdl v0.4.0	github_release 2026-05-11	CMQ_047 Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on complex scientific experimentation without human-in-the-loop. Andrej Karpathy	AI	51%
0.62	BTC closes above $85k at end of month?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-11	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	FDA ANDA078982: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — GRANULES	fda 2026-04-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.62	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.0.0	github_release 2025-10-16	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	US House District 11 November 2026 results conditional market	manifold 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	AlphaGRPO: Unlocking Self-Reflective Multimodal Generation in UMMs via Decompositional Verifiable Reward	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Pion: A Spectrum-Preserving Optimizer via Orthogonal Equivalence Transformation	arxiv 2026-05-12	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Delay-Empowered Causal Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.62	Instruction Lens Score: Your Instruction Contributes a Powerful Object Hallucination Detector for Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	ECTO: Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.62	PrivacySIM: Evaluating LLM Simulation of User Privacy Behavior	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Keeping Score: Efficiency Improvements in Neural Likelihood Surrogate Training via Score-Augmented Loss Functions	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	Learning plug-in surrogate endpoints for randomized experiments	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Incentivizing Truthfulness and Collaborative Fairness in Bayesian Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Constrained Stochastic Spectral Preconditioning Converges for Nonconvex Objectives	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	One-Step Generative Modeling via Wasserstein Gradient Flows	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	U-STS-LLM A Unified Spatio-Temporal Steered Large Language Model for Traffic Prediction and Imputation	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Persona-Conditioned Adversarial Prompting: Multi-Identity Red-Teaming for Adversarial Discovery and Mitigation	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	EPIC: Efficient Predicate-Guided Inference-Time Control for Compositional Text-to-Image Generation	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Finite Sentence-Interface Control for Learning Bounded-Fan-Out Linear MCFGs under Fixed Monoid Typing	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Primal-Dual Policy Optimization for Linear CMDPs with Adversarial Losses	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	240_030 Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	35%
0.62	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.62	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-13	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.62	Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-11	240_016 Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) Dave Blundin	AI	36%
0.62	Interpretable Machine Learning for Antepartum Prediction of Pregnancy-Associated Thrombotic Microangiopathy Using Routine Longitudinal Laboratory Data	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.62	Limits of Personalizing Differential Privacy Budgets	arxiv 2026-05-13	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.62	Stylized Text-to-Motion Generation via Hypernetwork-Driven Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Physics Guided Generative Optimization for Trotter Suzuki Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	Backdoor Channels Hidden in Latent Space: Cryptographic Undetectability in Modern Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	On the Generalization of Knowledge Distillation: An Information-Theoretic View	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	ERPPO: Entropy Regularization-based Proximal Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Frequency Bias and OOD Generalization in Neural Operators under a Variable-Coefficient Wave Equation	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	DP-Muon: Differentially Private Optimization via Matrix-Orthogonalized Momentum	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.62	facebookresearch/neuroai v0.2.1	github_release 2026-05-14	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.62	facebookresearch/neuroai v0.2.1	github_release 2026-05-14	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.62	Forgetting That Sticks: Quantization-Permanent Unlearning via Circuit Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Boosting Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards via Randomly Selected Few-Shot Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Second-Order Actor-Critic Methods for Discounted MDPs via Policy Hessian Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Efficient Online Conformal Selection with Limited Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-14	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	27%
0.62	A Mutual Information Lower Bound for Multimodal Regression Active Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Exploitation of Hidden Context in Dynamic Movement Forecasting: A Neural Network Journey from Recurrent to Graph Neural Networks and General Purpose Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Understanding Imbalanced Forgetting in Rehearsal-Based Class-Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.62	BioHuman: Learning Biomechanical Human Representations from Video	arxiv 2026-05-14	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.62	RxEval: A Prescription-Level Benchmark for Evaluating LLM Medication Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	Collaborative Yet Personalized Policy Training: Single-Timescale Federated Actor-Critic	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Turning Stale Gradients into Stable Gradients: Coherent Coordinate Descent with Implicit Landscape Smoothing for Lightweight Zeroth-Order Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	Turning Stale Gradients into Stable Gradients: Coherent Coordinate Descent with Implicit Landscape Smoothing for Lightweight Zeroth-Order Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Matrix-Space Reinforcement Learning for Reusing Local Transition Geometry	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Language-Induced Priors for Domain Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Towards Real-Time Autonomous Navigation: Transformer-Based Catheter Tip Tracking in Fluoroscopy	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	FDA NDA016730: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — B BRAUN	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	will there be a new llm release by the end of may?(market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-05-17	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.62	Will AI psychosis make it into the DSM6?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-16	248_024 AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	46%
0.62	Which US political party will be the more "pro-AI" party at the time of the 2028 presidential debates?	manifold 2026-05-18	241_063 America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	51%
0.62	Do you like 2% odds?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-18	239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk	Other	50%
0.62	before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-18	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.62	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	How far will the USA advance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-19	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	Will Polymarket reimburse for the incorrect resolution on the crypto fund market?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	General Preference Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.62	Can Adaptive Gradient Methods Converge under Heavy-Tailed Noise? A Case Study of AdaGrad	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	KairosHope: A Next-Generation Time-Series Foundation Model for Specialized Classification via Dual-Memory Architecture	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Offline Contextual Bandits in the Presence of New Actions	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Prompt2Fingerprint: Plug-and-Play LLM Fingerprinting via Text-to-Weight Generation	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Concise and Logically Consistent Conformal Sets for Neuro-Symbolic Concept-Based Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Revisiting the Adam-SGD Gap in LLM Pre-Training: The Role of Large Effective Learning Rates	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	42%
0.62	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.62	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.62	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.62	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to commercial traffic before June 10, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-28	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.62	Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to commercial traffic before June 10, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Who will win the Washington 3rds House election in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.62	New Zealand Election 2nd Place (Polymarket)	manifold 2026-05-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-05-24	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.62	Will Unicode remove an existing emoji before the end of 2030?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-24	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.62	Will there be a physical protest at Discord headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-24	236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.62	DAMEL: Dual-Axis Multi-Expert Learning for Class-Imbalanced Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Domain-Specific Data Synthesis for LLMs via Minimal Sufficient Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Evaluating Skill and Stability of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen under Multi-Decadal Climate Simulations	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Meta-Programming for Linear-time Temporal Answer Set Programming	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	MuPHI: Learning Implicit Multimodal Harm Reasoning via Semantically Grounded Reward Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Internal Representation, Not Clinical Knowledge: Where Apparent LLM Triage Failures Originate	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	CB-SLICE: Concept-Based Interpretable Error Slice Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	CB-SLICE: Concept-Based Interpretable Error Slice Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Inferring Code Correctness from Specification	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.62	Certified Policy Optimisation for Nested Causal Bandits via PAC-Bayes Risk	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Citation-Closure Retrieval and Per-Rule Attribution for Real-World Regulatory Compliance Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei	Geopolitics	60%
0.62	Multi-Legal-Bench: Evaluating LLMs on Legal Reasoning Across Jurisdictions, Languages, and Legal Traditions	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	EviLink: Multi-Path Schema Linking with Uncertainty-Guided Evidence Acquisition for Large-Scale Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	COMET: Concept Space Dissection of the Modality Gap in Audio-Text Multimodal Contrastive Embeddings	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Midpoint Generative Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%