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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.60	Will there be more than 150 goals scored in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-09	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	ATN3D: Density-Aware LiDAR-Radar Early 3D Object Detection Under Extreme Sparsity	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Next-Token Prediction Learns Generalisable Representations of Sleep Physiology	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	SIFT: Selective-Index For Fast Compute of RAG Prefill by Exploiting Attention Invariance	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.60	SAILS: Surrogate-based Analysis of Interactions via Local Effect Smooths	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.60	Conan-embedding-v3: Fusing Modality-Specific Models for Omni-Modal Embedding	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	SEF-CLGC at SemEval-2026 Task 11: Logical Notation Impact on Language Model Performance	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.60	CARE: A Conformal Safety Layer for Medical Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.60	NutriMLLM: Multimodal Large Language Models for Dietary Micronutrient Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	Rethinking the Divergence Regularization in LLM RL	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Perturbative Contrastive Physical Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.60	Evaluating the Representation Space of Diffusion Models via Self-Supervised Principles	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Alcmean's: Unsupervised community detection using local Laplacian, automatic detection of the number of centers	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Continuous Language Diffusion as a Decoder-Interface Problem	arxiv 2026-06-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Hierarchical Projection for Adaptive Knowledge Transfer	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	OrderDP: A Theoretically Guaranteed Lossless Dynamic Data Pruning Framework	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Is Text All You Need? Text as a Universal Information Bottleneck for Speech LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Multilingual Sentiment Aware Text Summarization A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Consistency Maintenance	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Detection and Interpretability Analysis of Quotation Errors by Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	231_007 AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Control	arxiv 2026-06-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	TrustMargin: Training-Free Arbitration between Parametric Memory and Retrieved Evidence in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Physics-Aware Sparse Learning and Selective Online Adaptation for Euler-Lagrange Robot Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Autonomous FPV Flight with Translational Optical Flow and Uncertainty Mask	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	RGB-S: Image-Aligned Tactile Saliency for Robust Dexterous Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Electromagnetism from two matter spaces: mutual helicity and the nondegenerate completion	arxiv 2026-06-08	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Is Exact Markovianity Fundamental Once Time Is Relational?	arxiv 2026-06-07	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.60	[Meta Market] Winner's Stage of Goals (+HC)	manifold 2026-06-10	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.60	Will somebody perform an assassination attempt on Mark Zuckerberg before 2028?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-10	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.60	FADA: Accessible fetal ultrasound interpretation and annotation with a selectively distilled unified vision-language model	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Architect-Ant: Editable Automatic Furnishing of Architectural Floor Plans	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Detecting Speculative Language in Biomedical Texts using Recurrent Neural Tensor Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	UPLOTS: A Unified Pretrained Language Model for Constrained Time-series Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	KG-SoftMAP: Soft Knowledge-Graph Priors for Bayesian Network Structure Learning from Sparse Discrete Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Building Change Detection in Earthquake: A Multi-Scale Interaction Network and A Change Detection Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Building Change Detection in Earthquake: A Multi-Scale Interaction Network and A Change Detection Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	Mobility Anomaly Generation using LLM-Driven Behavior with Kinematic Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-09	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.60	Linguistically Augmented Audio Speech Data (LinguAS)	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	MetaPlate: Counterfactual-Guided RAG-LLM Tool for Personalized Food Recommendation and Hyperglycemia Prevention	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Emotion Profiling in LLM-Based Literary Translation: Systematic Shifts Across MT and Post-Editing	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Emotion Profiling in LLM-Based Literary Translation: Systematic Shifts Across MT and Post-Editing	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Sleep EEG Signal Criticality as a Non-Invasive Predictor of Cognitive Decline in Dementia	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.60	Pre-AF 13: An Interpretable Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Mined from Discharge Reports	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.60	Near-Exponential Convergence Rates for kNN Classification based on Boltzmann Margin	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Nonlinear Estimator: Dual Bayesian Affine Estimators for Parameter Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	A Controlled Audit of Pretraining Contamination in Public Medical Vision-Language Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	Enhancing Multilingual LLM-based ASR with Mixture of Experts and Dynamic Downsampling	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	EM-Fall: Embodied mmWave Sensing for Day-and-Night Fall Detection on Humanoid Robots	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.60	EM-Fall: Embodied mmWave Sensing for Day-and-Night Fall Detection on Humanoid Robots	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	The Scattering Algebra of Physical Space: Wigner-Covariance and Fields	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.60	Magic and entanglement in 1+1-dimensional SU(2) lattice gauge theory	arxiv 2026-06-08	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	FDA ANDA208371: ABIRATERONE ACETATE (ABIRATERONE ACETATE) — RISING	fda 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	FDA ANDA204237: RABEPRAZOLE SODIUM (RABEPRAZOLE SODIUM) — RUBICON RESEARCH	fda 2026-06-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5)(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	By when will Amazon Prime Air (drone delivery) be available in every state?	manifold 2026-06-11	235_021 Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. Zipline	Auto/Transport	46%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Free Lottery (cosmic microwave background)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-11	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.60	System Report for CCL25-Eval Task 5: New Dataset and LoRA-Fine-Tuned Qwen2.5	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	System Report for CCL25-Eval Task 5: New Dataset and LoRA-Fine-Tuned Qwen2.5	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Using Explainability as a Training-Time Reliability Signal for Efficient ECG Classification	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Adapting Prithvi-EO for Fallow Detection for Food-Water Nexus: ViT-Adapter Necks and Parameter-Efficient Backbone tuning of Geospatial Foundation Model	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	OpenMedReason: Scientific Reasoning Supervision for Medical Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Frozen Multimodal Embeddings for Personality and Cognitive Ability Assessment in Asynchronous Video Interviews	arxiv 2026-06-10	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	51%
0.60	The Art of Interrogation: Consistency Amplifies Factuality in Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.60	MultiToP: Learning to Patch Visual Tokens to Mitigate Hallucinations in Video Large Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	AnchorEdit: Maintaining Temporal Consistency in Multi-turn Image Editing via Causal Memory	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Towards Fully Automated Exam Grading: Fairness-Aware Recognition of Handwritten Answers with Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Towards a Bridge Layer Between Bibliographic and Formalized Mathematical Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Neuro-Relational Programs: Unifying Queries and Neural Computation over Structured Data	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Spectrally Regularized Latent Flow Matching for Turbulence Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	Urban Heat MiniCubes: An AI-Ready dataset for urban heat research	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.60	Urban Heat MiniCubes: An AI-Ready dataset for urban heat research	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.60	Fixed-Parameter Tractability of Private Synthetic Data Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.60	Semantic Grading of Written Answers in Low-Resource Language Bangla Using a Fine-Tuned Lightweight Language Model	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	Pre-AF 13: An Interpretable Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Mined from Discharge Reports	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.60	Fast-SDE: Efficient Single-Microphone Sound Source Distance Estimation in Reverberant Environments	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	A Modular Dual-Camera Pipeline for Micro-Inspection Using Aerial Robots	arxiv 2026-06-09	243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi	Robotics	31%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.21.0	github_release 2026-06-08	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.19.0	github_release 2026-03-26	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_lammps-0.5.0	github_release 2026-03-09	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_lammps-0.1.0	github_release 2025-09-17	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.5.0	github_release 2025-09-16	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	Spread: United States (-1.5)(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.60	Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Spread: United States (-2.5)(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	How many people will attend Manifest 2026?	manifold 2026-06-12	244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	Best Out-of-Context Quote at Manifest 2026	manifold 2026-06-12	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.60	Will June 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Contrast-Informed Augmentation and Domain-Adversarial Training for Adult-to-Neonatal MR Reconstruction Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Measurement-Calibrated Multi-Camera Fusion for Vision-Based Indoor Localization	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Cascade Classification of Dermoscopic Images of Skin Neoplasms with Controllable Sensitivity and External Clinical Validation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	MiniPIC: Flexible Position-Independent Caching in <100LOC	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	G-Long: Graph-Enhanced Memory Management for Efficient Long-Term Dialogue Agents	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Emotional regulation improves deep learning-based image classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	APCyc: Property-Informed Design of Cyclic Peptides via Automated Cyclization	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.60	A Machine Learning Framework for Real-Time Personalized Ergonomic Pose Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-11	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.60	Diffusion Transformer World-Action Model for AV Scene Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	MaskWAM: Unifying Mask Prompting and Prediction for World-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	Robust State-Conditional Feature-Weighted Jump Models for Temporal Clustering	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	A unified complexity bound for logconcave sampling	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Towards Provably Fair Machine Learning: Bayesian Approaches For Consistent and Transparent Predictions	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.60	Dolph2Vec: Self-Supervised Representations of Dolphin Vocalizations	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	MultiToP: Learning to Patch Visual Tokens to Mitigate Hallucinations in Video Large Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Towards Reliable Sequential Object Picking in Clutter: The Runner-up Solution to RGMC 2025	arxiv 2026-06-11	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-13	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.7.2	github_release 2019-07-19	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.60	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)	manifold 2026-06-14	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.60	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.60	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.60	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will my account be restricted or removed by Monday, June 22?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-15	230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.7	github_release 2024-06-27	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.3	github_release 2023-04-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Spread: Argentina (-2.5)(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Spread: Argentina (-2.5)(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.60	I woke up to find 500 unique traders in my markets today. Will I reach 900 by 7/17/26?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-16	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-16	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Free Lottery (Cosmic Microwave Background)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-16	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.60	Will the price of silver exceed $70 at the end of June(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-15	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	FusionRS: A Large-Scale RGB-Infrared Remote Sensing Dataset for Dual-Modal Vision-Language Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.60	FusionRS: A Large-Scale RGB-Infrared Remote Sensing Dataset for Dual-Modal Vision-Language Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.60	RAID: Semantic Graph Diffusion for True Cold-Start and Cross-Lingual Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.60	P3B3: A Multi-Turn Conversational Benchmark for Measuring European and Brazilian Portuguese Variety Bias in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	P3B3: A Multi-Turn Conversational Benchmark for Measuring European and Brazilian Portuguese Variety Bias in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Automated jailbreak attack targeting multiple defense strategies	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.60	SDS-LoRA: Overcoming Anisotropic Gradient Scaling in Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-15	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	SpecAlign: Efficient Specification-Grounded Alignment of Large Language Models via Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	PACT: Privileged Trace Co-Training for Multi-Turn Tool-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Thinking with Visual Grounding	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	KVEraser: Learning to Steer KV Cache for Efficient Localized Context Erasing	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	The Complexity of Min-Max Optimization for Quadratic Polynomials	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Factorized Neural Operators Decompose Dynamic and Persistent Responses	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Near-Optimal Stochastic Linear Bandits with Delay	arxiv 2026-06-15	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.60	Beyond Artifacts: Towards Generalizable Synthetic Song Detection via Music-Intrinsic Features	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	TCHG: Tri-Trust Conditioned Heterogeneous Graph Learning for Reliable Dynamic Trust Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.60	Diffusion Flow Matching: Dimension-Improved KL Bounds and Wasserstein Guarantees	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	A Mechanistic Understanding of Pronoun Fidelity in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	IBAD: Interpretable Behavioral Anomaly Detection on Human Mobility Data	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	Scaling Human and G2P Supervision for Robust Phonetic Transcription	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	p-PSO: A Penalized Particle Swarm Optimization Technique for Finding D-Optimal Designs with Mixed Factors in Generalized Linear Models	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Scalar-pathway fidelity improves physical accuracy in short-range equivariant interatomic potentials	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	LESS Is More: Mutual-Stability Sampling for Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	How Far Can Machine Translation Quality Take You? Extrinsic Discourse Evaluation in Goal-Oriented Setups	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	In-Domain Supervised Pathology Report Classification: A Reproducible Pipeline from Data Curation to Production-Matched Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-14	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Agile Fall Recovery for Quadrotors with Bidirectional Thrust via Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	Anisotropic Template Ansätze for Robust Positive Invariance under State-Dependent Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	A Smart-Scheduled Hybrid (SSH) EKF-FGO State Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	GeoTLM: Geometry-aware Tactile-Language Models for Contact Motion Orientation Reasoning of Dynamic Objects	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	TO-SoFiT: Topology Optimization of Hydraulic Soft Fish Tail Design for programmable undulating locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.60	Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Kolmogorov Regression for Robust Diffusion Policies	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Structural Role Injection in Handlebars-Templated LLM Prompts: Triple-Brace Interpolation, Delimiter Family, and the Limits of HTML Auto-Escaping	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	Structural Role Injection in Handlebars-Templated LLM Prompts: Triple-Brace Interpolation, Delimiter Family, and the Limits of HTML Auto-Escaping	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.60	When English Isn't the Best Teacher: Source Language Effects in Cross-Lingual In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Learn to Quantify Social Interaction with Constraints for Pedestrian Walking	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Learn to Quantify Social Interaction with Constraints for Pedestrian Walking	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	WallZero: Mastering the Game of WallGo with Strategic Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.60	SegTME-UNI2: A Foundation Model-Based Framework for Generalisable Multiclass Cell Segmentation and LLM-Driven Tumour Microenvironment Characterisation in Histopathology	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	ASTEROID: A Spatiotemporal Information Transformer for Forecasting Multi-Step Time Series of Molecular Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.60	Handling Feature Heterogeneity with Learnable Graph Patches	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	SkillMoV: Mixture-of-View Routing with Prototype-Conditioned Gating for Unified Multi-View Proficiency Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Quantifying Consistency in LLM Logical Reasoning via Structural Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Quantifying Consistency in LLM Logical Reasoning via Structural Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Cluster-Aware Dual-Level Test Specification Generation for Large-Scale Automotive Software Requirements	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Expanding SPHERE-JEPA: A Family of Statistical Regularizers for the Hypersphere	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Expanding SPHERE-JEPA: A Family of Statistical Regularizers for the Hypersphere	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	MM++: Unsupervised Scale-Invariant Multilayer OOD Detection via Top-K Gated Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Uncertainty Quantification of Engineering Structures by Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Multivariate Active Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.60	Reading between the Lines: Leveraging Large Language Models for Global Dementia and Depression Assessment from Clinical Interviews	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.60	Examining the Limits of Word2Vec with Toki Pona	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Revisiting LLM Adaptation for 3D CT Report Generation: A Study of Scaling and Diagnostic Priors	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Fourier-Preconditioned Path Deformations for Multi-Field Vacuum Tunnelling	arxiv 2026-06-16	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	When Renormalisation Remembers: UV/IR Mixing as an Entanglement Bridge	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	A Hybrid LSTM--Vision Transformer Architecture for Predicting HRRR Forecast Errors	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	CAOA -- Completion-Assisted Object-CAD Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%