Validations Queue

83,930 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 119 of 390, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)

83,930

Reviewed

Filtered

77,983

page 119 / 390

Showing on page

200

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold

Source

All (83930)arxiv (38637)codex_research_pack (134)edgar_8k (3091)fda (3580)gdelt (1218)github_release (3077)manifold (8920)polymarket (25273)

Page size

50 100 200 500

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Threshold:Source:Action:

Source0 selected · 0 visible

Bulk action

Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.64	FDA ANDA076958: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM (LOSARTAN POTASSIUM) — TEVA	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16?(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	What will the price of Bitcoin hit by May 30th UTC?	manifold 2026-05-15	242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	31%
0.64	Second-Order Actor-Critic Methods for Discounted MDPs via Policy Hessian Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	Understanding Imbalanced Forgetting in Rehearsal-Based Class-Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Cognitive-Uncertainty Guided Knowledge Distillation for Accurate Classification of Student Misconceptions	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Test-Time Learning with an Evolving Library	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Semantic Feature Segmentation for Interpretable Predictive Maintenance in Complex Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	PreFT: Prefill-only finetuning for efficient inference	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Stochastic Matching via Local Sparsification	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	FDA ANDA220717: ZOLPIDEM TARTRATE (ZOLPIDEM TARTRATE) — UMEDICA LABS PVT	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA NDA212576: INQOVI (CEDAZURIDINE) — TAIHO ONCOLOGY	fda 2026-05-13	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.64	Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-16	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	S&p500 May 2026 prop bets	manifold 2026-05-17	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	How will reading "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" affect my P(Doom)?	manifold 2026-05-17	246_044 Two outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel for thousands of years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.64	Altar of Champions 2026 Winner?	manifold 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.64	Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Estimating Item Difficulty with Large Language Models as Experts	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price	Education	66%
0.64	DiPRL: Learning Discrete Programmatic Policies via Architecture Entropy Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	DiPRL: Learning Discrete Programmatic Policies via Architecture Entropy Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Beyond Square Roots: Explicit Memory-Efficient Factorization for Multi-Epoch Private Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	Dynamic robotic cloth folding with efficient Koopman operator-based model predictive control	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Hybrid Quantum-Classical Neural Architecture Search	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	Interaction-Breaking Adversarial Learning Framework for Robust Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Unveiling Memorization-Generalization Coexistence: A Case Study on Arithmetic Tasks with Label Noise	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Balancing Knowledge Distillation for Imbalance Learning with Bilevel Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Revisiting the Adam-SGD Gap in LLM Pre-Training: The Role of Large Effective Learning Rates	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	241_015 Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.64	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.64	Will any nobel laureate donate their brain to https://bexorg.com/ by eoy2039?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-28	231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	Will a prediction market-related court case reach the Supreme Court before 2029?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will 1mon (Max) wear a dress in 2026(market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-05-25	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.64	How many unique emoji will there be at the end of 2028?	manifold 2026-05-24	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.64	Same Evidence, Different Answers: Canonical-Context On-Policy Distillation for Multi-Turn Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Projectional Decoding: Towards Semantic-Aware LLM Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.64	Inferring Code Correctness from Specification	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	BitTP: The Lightweight Trajectory Prediction Model with BitLLM for Edge-Devices	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	MINDGAMES: A Live Arena for Evaluating Social and Strategic Reasoning in Multi-Agent LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Leave a Window Out: Modifying the Jackknife for Predictive Inference in Time Series	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.64	MIC: Maximizing Informational Capacity in Adaptive Representations via Isotropic Subspace Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	CRB-Guided Framework Design and Resource Allocation for Indoor mmWave ISCC Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	MIRAGE: Adaptive Multimodal Gating for Whole-Brain fMRI Encoding	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.64	The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Markov Boundary for Tabular Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	SEAL: Can Saturated Benchmarks Be Revived by LLM-as-a-Meta-Judge?	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.64	Recovering Diversity Without Losing Alignment: A DPO Recipe for Post-Trained LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	On Asymmetric Optimization of Reasoning and Perception in Vision-Language Model Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	FinGuard: Detecting Financial Regulatory Non-Compliance in LLM Interactions	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei	Geopolitics	60%
0.64	Learning Design Skills as Memory Policies for Agentic Photonic Inverse Design	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	A Study on Question-Answer Dataset for LLM Safety Evaluation with a Focus on Illegal Activities	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	DynSess: Dynamic Session-Level Evaluation and Optimization Framework for Role-Playing Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	3DVLA: Enhancing Vision-Language-Action Models via 3D Spatial and Instance Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	facebookresearch/faiss v1.14.2	github_release 2026-05-22	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.64	Will NSSB get delayed by more than 30 minutes?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-05-31	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.64	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.64	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.64	When will Codex hit 6M WAUs?	manifold 2026-06-01	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.64	[snigus] Will I convince Destiny that managing AI-risk should be in top 2 policy priority of his?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-31	242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.64	facebookresearch/neuroai v0.2.2	github_release 2026-05-26	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) (CIK 0001706946)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.64	Permissive Safety Through Trusted Inference: Verifiable Belief-Space Neural Safety Filters for Assured Interactive Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	ODTQA-FoRe: An Open-Domain Tabular Question Answering Dataset for Future Data Forecasting and Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	CEON: Circular Economy Ontology Network	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	FW-NKF: Frequency-Weighted Neural Kalman Filters	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	EVA-Net: Subject-Independent EEG Motor Decoding with Video-Derived Motor Priors	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Dynamic Trust-Aware Sparse Communication Topology for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Consensus	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Token Predictors Are Not Planners: Building Physically Grounded Causal Reasoners	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.64	Demystifying Multimodal Biomolecular Co-design With Intrinsic Geodesic Coupling	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Compliance-Scored Best-of-N Guardrail Orchestration for Multimodal Document Generation in Payments Dispute Defense	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Hierarchical Online Prompt Mutation with Dual-Loop Feedback for Guardrailed Evidence Document Generation: A Production-Evaluation Case Study	arxiv 2026-05-31	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	ProtoAda: Prototype-Guided Adaptive Adapter Expansion and Geometric Consolidation for Multimodal Continual Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Physics-Informed Residuals for Adaptive Mesh Refinement in Finite-Difference PDE Solvers	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.64	Physics-Guided Recurrent State-Space Neural Networks for Multi-Step Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Ablating Archetypes: The Stability of Archetypal SAEs is an Artifact of Initialization and Metric Design	arxiv 2026-06-01	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	RobustModelMaker: Coupling Bootstrap Stability Selection with Leakage-Safe Nested Cross-Validation for Scientific Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	HERO'S JOURNEY: Testing Complex Rule Induction with Text Games	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	When Knowledge Is Not Free: Cost-Aware Evidence Selection in Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	InfoMerge: Information-aware Token Compression for Efficient Video Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Training Prompt Matters: State-Adaptive Optimization for Robust Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	UniD$^3$: A Knowledge Graph-Enhanced RAG Framework for Drug-Disease Discovery and Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-03	242_032 AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.64	Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-03	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.64	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-04	234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	59%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-06-05	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.64	EasyLens: A Training-Free Plug-and-Play Subtle-Lesion Representation Amplifier for Medical Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	OneReason Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	TOKI: A Bitemporal Operator Algebra for Contradiction Resolution in LLM-Agent Persistent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Compositional Boundaries for Density Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	GenTI: Benchmarking LLMs for Autonomous IDPS Rule Generation for Unseen Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	DiG-Plan: Mitigating Early Commitment for Tool-Graph Planning via Diffusion Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Agent-Orchestrated Adaptive RAG: A Comparative Study on Structured and Multi-Hop Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Event Detection for Parameter-to-KPI Dependency Learning for AI-RAN	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Quantifying the Privacy of Counterfactuals by Leveraging Membership Inference Attacks Against Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Generative Criticality in Large Language Model Temperature Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Steering Vectors are an Adversarial Attack Surface	arxiv 2026-06-04	231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	EML-CD: Causal Mechanism Recovery via EML Symbolic Trees in Structure Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Auditing Demonstration Curation Metrics: Action-Only Scorers Fail on the Structural Defects That Degrade Imitation Policies	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	When Evidence is Sparse: Weakly Supervised Early Failure Alerting in Dialogs and LLM-Agent Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	STRIDE: Training Data Attribution via Sparse Recovery from Subset Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-03	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Scaffold, Not Vocabulary? A Controlled, Two-Tier, Pre-Registered Study of a Popperian Code-Generation Skill	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Multi-task Learning is Not Enough: Representational Entanglement in Dual-output Second Language Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Multilingual Detection of Alzheimer's Disease from Speech: A Cross-Linguistic Transfer Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Failed Reasoning Traces Tell You What Is Fixable (But Not by Reading Them)	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	M$^3$Eval: Multi-Modal Memory Evaluation through Cognitively-Grounded Video Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Flow-based Policy Adaptation without Policy Updates	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	DexFuture: Hierarchical Future-State Visuomotor Targeting for Bimanual Dexterous Tool Use	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Learning from Demonstrations over Riemannian Manifolds using Neural ODEs: An Extended Abstract	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Potential-Guided Flow Matching for Vision-Language-Action Policy Improvement	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	50%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-05	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Watch, Remember, Reason: Human-View Video Understanding with MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Textual Supervision Enhances Geospatial Representations in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Accounting for Context: Shaping Moral Credences for Value Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Didact: A Cross-Domain Capability Discovery System for Defence	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.64	ThinkBooster: A Unified Framework for Seamless Test-Time Scaling of LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.64	Neuro-Symbolic Learning for Long-Horizon Task Planning Under Complex Logical Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Second-Order Path Kernel Interpolation Formulas in Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Unified Geometry-Guided ML-FTLE for Tracking Transient Chaos from Scalar Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Covariance Shrinkage via Stochastic Interpolation	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Dash2Sim: Closed-Loop Driving Simulation from in-the-wild Dashcam Videos	arxiv 2026-06-05	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	Beyond Linear and Overcomplete Regimes: A Mean-Field Analysis of Bottleneck Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Heterogeneous Effects of Green Finance on Urban Decarbonization: Evidence from 285 Cities in China	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.64	Accelerating Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimisation via Predictive-Gradient Catalysts	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	From Sampled Outcomes to Capability Distributions: Rethinking Supervision for LLM Routing	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Product units in gated recurrent units improve nuclear-mass prediction	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Sycophantic Praise: Evaluating Excessive Praise in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Adversarial Creation and Detection of AI-Generated Social Bot Content	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.64	A Causal Probabilistic Framework for Perception-Informed Closed-Loop Simulation of Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Extending Responsibility-Sensitive Safety for the Assessment of Offloaded Autonomous Driving Services	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-07	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Evaluation Cards: An Interpretive Layer for AI Evaluation Reporting	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	ReCoVLA: VLM-Guided Reward Compilation for Failure Recovery in Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	ReCoVLA: VLM-Guided Reward Compilation for Failure Recovery in Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	PRISM: Recovering Instruction Sets from Language Model Activations	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Safe-RULE: Safe Reinforcement UnLEarning	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Anything2Skill: Compiling External Knowledge into Reusable Skills for Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Context-Fractured Decomposition Attacks on Tool-Using LLM Agents: Exploiting Artifact Provenance Gaps	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.64	OnlyDense: Reduced-Order Modeling for Lagrangian simulation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Stage-1 Controls the Entropy Regime, Not the Outcome	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Personalization Meets Safety:Mechanisms,Risks,and Mitigations in Personalized LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	A Multi-Agent System for IPMSM Design Optimization via an FEA-AI Hybrid Approach	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Baichuan-M4: A Clinical-Grade Medical Agent System for Continuous Care	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Report on CHIIR 2026 Workshop on Generative AI and Academic Search (GAI&AS)	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	Q-Delta: Beyond Key-Value Associative State Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Weighted universal approximation of differentiable maps on infinite-dimensional manifolds	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Discovering Functionally Selective Brain Regions with a Deep Topographic Multimodal Model	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Benchmarking Empirical Privacy Protection for Adaptations of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	DynaCF: Mitigating Shortcut Learning in Reward Models via Dynamic Counterfactual Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Online Learning with Recency: Algorithms for Sliding-window Streaming Multi-armed Bandits	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Titans-as-a-Layer: Test-Time Memory for Conversational Speech Emotion Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Introducing multiplex semantic networks as multifaceted representations of creative associative knowledge across multilingual samples	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Symbolic and Abstractive Reasoning with Complex Visual Queries	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Harnessing Streaming Video in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	LUNA-AD: Lightweight Uncertainty-Aware Language Model with Lifelong Learning for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_016 NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost of generating AI tokens to 1/10 of previous architectures. Autonomous reasoning model 'Alpamayo' shifts self-driving technology from fragile rule-based coding to verifiable l... Jensen Huang	AI	75%
0.64	Asymptotic Algebras and Holography of Information in CGHS Model	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Will I keep my duolingo streak through the end of this year (2026)(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-06	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.64	Diffusion Forcing Planner: History-Annealed Planning with Time-Dependent Guidance for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Null-Space Constrained Low-Rank Adaptation for Response-Specified Large Language Model Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	A Constrained Natural-Language Interface for Variational Multi-Physics Finite Element Simulations in FEniCS	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	RAT: Reference-Augmented Training for ASV Anti-Spoofing	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	UniDexTok: A Unified Dexterous Hand Tokenizer from Real Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Dmsh: A Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Framework for All-Quad Mesh Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	A complementary study on PlanGPT: Evaluation with defined Performance Metrics and comparison with a planner	arxiv 2026-06-09	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	UPLOTS: A Unified Pretrained Language Model for Constrained Time-series Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Belief-Space Control for Personalized Cancer Treatment via Active Inference	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	What Spatial Memory Must Store: Occlusion as the Test for Language-Agent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	The Confident Liar: Diagnosing Multi-Agent Debate with Log-Probabilities and LLM-as-Judge	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	The Confident Liar: Diagnosing Multi-Agent Debate with Log-Probabilities and LLM-as-Judge	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	YUBI: Yielding Universal Bidigital Interface for Bimanual Dexterous Manipulation at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Less Context, Better Agents: Efficient Context Engineering for Long-Horizon Tool-Using LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Duality for Optimal Multi-Item, Multi-Bidder Auction Design: Revenue Certificates through Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_007 Altman strategy: capture 90% of global compute/AI market — treat compute infrastructure as monopolistic foundational utility. Sam Altman	AI/Strategy	23%
0.64	Flexible Kernels for Protein Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Task Robustness via Re-Labelling Vision-Action Robot Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	Task Robustness via Re-Labelling Vision-Action Robot Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	When Do Autoregressive Sequence Models Forecast Physical Wavefields? A Controlled Study on Synthetic Seismograms	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Representation-Aware Advantage Estimation: Your Reward Model Provides More Than A Scalar Output	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Parallel Causal Associative Fields: Gated Sparse Memory for Long-Context Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Compositional Generative Modeling from Decentralized Data	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Compositional Generative Modeling from Decentralized Data	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	SoK: Colluding Adversaries in Machine Learning Pipelines	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	Training LLMs to Enforce Multi-Level Instruction Hierarchies via Gravity-Weighted Direct Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%