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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.64	Momentum Based Reward Design for Low Emission Traffic Signal Control	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Matching Rates and Optimal Allocation for Federated Probe-Logit Distillation under Heterogeneous Bandwidth Budgets	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	K-FinHallu: A Hallucination Detection Benchmark for Multi-Turn RAG in Korean Finance	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.64	When Does Persona Prompting Actually Help? A Retrieval and Metric Analysis of Expert Role Injection in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	When Does Persona Prompting Actually Help? A Retrieval and Metric Analysis of Expert Role Injection in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	GrepSeek: Training Search Agents for Direct Corpus Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	VideoFDB: Evaluating Full-Duplex Vision-Speech Capabilities in Conversational Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.64	SafeRx-Agent: A Knowledge-Grounded Multi-Agent Framework for Safe and Explainable Medication Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-27	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Gaze2Act: Gaze-Conditioned Vision-Language-Action Policies for Interactive Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.64	Multi-Resolution End-to-End Deep Neural Network for Optimizing Latency-Accuracy Tradeoff in Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-05-27	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.64	FDA ANDA210040: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — AMNEAL PHARMS	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.38.0	github_release 2026-05-21	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.64	Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	FDA BLA761354: TOFIDENCE (TOCILIZUMAB-BAVI) — BIOGEN MA	fda 2026-05-22	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.40.0	github_release 2026-06-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will there be any news about another assassination attempt on Donald Trump this month?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-02	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.64	Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Permissive Safety Through Trusted Inference: Verifiable Belief-Space Neural Safety Filters for Assured Interactive Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_029 Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars. Brett Adcock	Robotics	33%
0.64	Moment-Video: Diagnosing Temporal Fidelity of Video MLLMs on Momentary Visual Events	arxiv 2026-06-01	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.64	Coordination Graphs for Constrained Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Faster Synchronous On-Policy RL via Straggler-Aware Group Sizing	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.64	Network Distributed Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Consensus Control of Quadcopters	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	LALE: Lightweight-Transformer Architecture for Land-Cover Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Where Do Deep-Research Agents Go Wrong? Span-Level Error Localization in Agent Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	KliniskVestBERT: BERT Model Specialised to Norwegian Clinical Texts	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Evaluation of Baseline Methods for IDD-based SSD External Memory Search	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	RoleCDE:Benchmarking and Mitigating Role-Alignment Trade-offs in Role-Playing Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Emergent Transfer of a Physics Foundation Model from Simulation to Laboratory Turbulence	arxiv 2026-05-31	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.64	Riemannian Gradient Descent for Low-Rank Architectures	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Closing the Alignment-Maturity Gap in Federated Prototype Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	A Theoretical Framework for Self-Play Theorem Proving Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Adaptive Sharpness-Aware Minimization with a Polyak-type Step size: A Theory-Grounded Scheduler	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Decentralized Instruction Tuning: Conflict-Aware Splitting and Weight Merging	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	MPMWorlds: Material-Point-Method Simulations for Inferring and Extrapolating Physical Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Encoded but Not Routed: Explaining the Table-Chart Gap in Scientific Claim Verification	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	Learning from Saturated Data: Signals Beyond Correctness for LLM Training	arxiv 2026-05-31	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	TECCI: Tricky Edits of Collected and Curated Images	arxiv 2026-05-31	235_036 AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.64	Implicit Geographic Inference in LLM Medical Triage: Language-Driven Disparities in Emergency Recommendations	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.64	CA-BED: Conversation-Aware Bayesian Experimental Design	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	MiCU: End-to-End Smart Home Command Understanding with Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-31	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	ExpWeaver: LLM Agents Learn from Experience via Latent RAG	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	MLLM-Microscope: Unlocking Hidden Structure Within Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-30	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.64	FDA ANDA201749: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA NDA022180: FERAHEME (FERUMOXYTOL) — AZURITY	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.2	github_release 2019-06-14	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.64	Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will CD Real Tomayapo vs. Club ABB end in a draw?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.64	FDA BLA022472: AFREZZA (INSULIN RECOMBINANT HUMAN) — MANNKIND	fda 2026-05-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.64	Will May 2026 US average hourly earnings rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Code2LoRA: Hypernetwork-Generated Adapters for Code Language Models under Software Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_026 Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, not where they are today' — 'this is the worst the models will ever be'. Next-generation models will 'eat your scaffolding for breakfast'; manual software configuration, standar... Kevin Weil	Labor/Jobs	61%
0.64	Goedel-Architect: Streamlining Formal Theorem Proving with Blueprint Generation and Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.64	To Be Multimodal or Not to Be: Query-Adaptive Audio-Visual Person Retrieval via Active Modality Detection	arxiv 2026-06-04	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.64	Deciphering Two Training Clocks in Grokking via Deep Linear Network Theory with Conditional ReLU Reduction	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	LongSpace: Exploring Long-Horizon Spatial Memory from Perception to Recall in Video	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	SlotGCG: Exploiting the Positional Vulnerability in LLMs for Jailbreak Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Event Detection for Parameter-to-KPI Dependency Learning for AI-RAN	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	3D Underwater Path Planning via Generative Flow Field Surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Adaptive Learning Rates with Surrogate Probability for Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Adaptive Learning Rates with Surrogate Probability for Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Revisiting Prototype Rehearsal for Exemplar-Free Continual Learning: Manifold-Aware Boundary Sampling with Adaptive Class-Balanced Loss	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Uncovering Extreme Event Mechanisms for Prediction and Control with Sensitivity-Balanced Projections	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.64	Uncovering Extreme Event Mechanisms for Prediction and Control with Sensitivity-Balanced Projections	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Pattern Selectivity is Not Task-Causal Structure: A Cross-Architecture Mechanistic Study of Composed-Task Circuits in 1B-Class Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	Rethinking LoRA Memory Through the Lens of KV Cache Compression	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Using Large Language Models to Support High Volume Application Review for an Undergraduate Research Program	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	MotionDisco: Motion Discovery for Extreme Humanoid Loco-Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Towards Realistic 3D Sonar Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Potential-Guided Flow Matching for Vision-Language-Action Policy Improvement	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	COP-Q: Safety-First Reinforcement Learning for Robot Control via Cholesky-Ordered Projection	arxiv 2026-06-03	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.64	facebookresearch/differentiable-robot-model v0.2.1	github_release 2022-02-15	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	facebookresearch/differentiable-robot-model v0.2.1	github_release 2022-02-15	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.64	Native3D: End-to-End 3D Scene Generation via Unified Mesh-Texture Modeling and Semantic Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	A Geometric View for Understanding Concept Learning and Neuron Interpretation in Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Workflow-to-Skill: Skill Creation via Routing-Workflow-Semantics-Attachments Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	RhinoVLA Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Learning Explicit Behavioral Models with Adaptive Questions and World-Model Probes	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	RASFT: Rollout-Adaptive Supervised Fine-Tuning for Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	mmPISA-bench: Do LLMs Reason Equally Well Across 43 Languages?	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.64	QuadVerse: An Integrated Framework Aligning Visual-Physical Reality for Quadruped Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Task Editing for Generalizable 3D Visuomotor Policy Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	T-GMP: Terrain-conditioned Generative Motion Priors for Versatile and Natural Humanoid Locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will May 2026 U.S. real disposable personal income rise at least 0.2% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-06	AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	13%
0.64	MeCo: One-Step MeanFlow-based Corrector for Multi-Channel Speech Separation	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	FMplex: Model Virtualization for Serving Extensible Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	SecureClaw: Clawing Back Control of LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Leveraging Structural Constraints for Diffusion-based Neural TSP Solvers	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Reliable to Expressive: A Curriculum for Rubric-Following Safety Judges	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	A Regret Minimization Framework on Preference Learning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	Stage-1 Controls the Entropy Regime, Not the Outcome	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.64	BareWave: Waveform-Native Flow-Matching Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	TRIAGE: Dialectical Reasoning for Explainable Risk Prediction on Irregularly Sampled Medical Time Series with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.64	SafeRun: Enabling Determinism in LLM Planning for Running	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	From Statute to Control Flow: Span-Grounded Deontic Trees for Defeasible Scope Parsing	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei	Geopolitics	60%
0.64	Can the Environment Speak for Itself? $T^{2}$-GRPO: A Turn-Trajectory Group Relative Policy Optimization for Caregiver Agents	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	The Injection Paradox: Brand-Level Suppression in Safety-Trained LLM Recommendations via RAG Context Injection	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.64	Stabilizing On-Policy Distillation for MLLM Reasoning with Global Normalization	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Decoy-Calibrated Failure Audits for Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Heterophily-Aware Adaptive Knowledge Distillation for Hypergraph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Fourier Neural Operators with rank-1 lattice points and hyperbolic cross	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Titans-as-a-Layer: Test-Time Memory for Conversational Speech Emotion Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	EinSort: Sorting is All We Need for Tensorizing LLM	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Multi-Hop Knowledge Composition is Bound by Pretraining Exposure	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	CRANE: Knowledge Editing for Reasoning MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Beyond Averages: Evaluating LLMs on Human Survey Replication at the Distributional Level	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	Analyzing the Correlation Between Hallucinations and Knowledge Conflicts in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Ishigaki-IDS: An Open-Weight Verifier-Aware Model for Information Delivery Specification Drafting in Building Information Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Auditing Proprietary Alignment in Large Language Models: A Comparative Framework Without a Ground-Truth Standard	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	ReGIL: Retrieval-Guided Imitation Learning from a Single Demonstration	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	Back to the Familiar Future: Failure Recovery for VLA Policies via Pre-Imagined Milestone Selection	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.64	Language as a Sensor: Calibrated Spatial Belief Estimation in 3D Scenes from Natural Language	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Towards End to End Motion Planning and Execution for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles Using Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Provenance-Grounded Gating and Adaptive Recovery in Synthetic Post-Training Data Curation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Designed by Journalists, but Is It for Readers? Rethinking AI Disclosures and Transparency in News	arxiv 2026-06-09	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Fast and Highly Expressive Policy Learning for Offline Reinforcement Learning via Bootstrapped Flow Q-Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Flexible Flows for Biological Sequence Design	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	A complementary study on PlanGPT: Evaluation with defined Performance Metrics and comparison with a planner	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Baseline-Free Policy Optimization for Neural Combinatorial Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Fast Exact Nearest-Neighbor Learning for High-Frequency Financial Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.64	A Source Domain is All You Need: Source-Only Cross-OS Transfer Learning for APT Anomaly Detection via Semantic Alignment and Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	A Source Domain is All You Need: Source-Only Cross-OS Transfer Learning for APT Anomaly Detection via Semantic Alignment and Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	From Senses to Decisions: The Information Flow of Auditory and Visual Perception in Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	From Senses to Decisions: The Information Flow of Auditory and Visual Perception in Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	FedSteer: Taming Extreme Gradient Staleness in Federated Learning with Corrective Projections and Caching	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	When to Align, When to Predict: A Phase Diagram for Multimodal Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.64	MemVenom: Triggered Poisoning of Multimodal Memories in Web Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	Do LLMsMakeNeural Distinguishers Wise?	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.64	PL-KKT-hPINN: Enforcing Nonlinear Equality Constraints on Neural Networks via Piecewise-Linear Projection	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.64	Geometry-Aware Reinforcement Learning for 2D Irregular Nesting	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Representation-Aware Advantage Estimation: Your Reward Model Provides More Than A Scalar Output	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Parallel Causal Associative Fields: Gated Sparse Memory for Long-Context Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	The Order Matters: Sequential Fine-Tuning of LLaMA for Coherent Automated Essay Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	When Design Rules Break: Benchmark Composition Determines Whether Label Informativeness Predicts GNN Aggregator Choice	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.64	SARM2: Multi-Task Stage Aware Reward Modeling for Self Improving Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Locomotion analysis of a quadruped interacting with the lunar granular surface	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.64	Robotic Nonprehensile Object Transportation with a Hanging Tray	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	VIA-SD: Verification via Intra-Model Routing for Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Towards Data-free and Training-free Compression for Speech Foundation Models Using Parameter Clustering	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.64	The Power of Test-Time Training for Approximate Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Steering Where to Listen: Instruction-Based Activation Steering Redirects Temporal Attention in Large Audio-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	When Probing Accuracy Saturates, Fragility Resolves: A Complementary Metric for LLM Pre-Training Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Beyond Dark Knowledge: Mixup-Based Distillation for Reliable Predictions	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	A Riemannian Approach to Low-Rank Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Phase Transitions in Attention: A Bayesian Theory of Copy Head Emergence	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	RePAIR: Predictive Self-Supervised Representation Learning in Chess	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Parameter-Efficient Adapter Tuning for Tabular-Image Multimodal Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	FlexiBrain: Resolution-Agnostic Voxel-Level Encoding for Native fMRI	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Mahalanobis-Guided Latent OOD Detection for Hybrid ES-DRL Control in Time-Varying Systems	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Beyond Third-Person Audits: Situated Interaction Auditing for User-Centered LLM Bias Research	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Gumbel-BEARD: Automatic Layer Selection for Self-Supervised Adaptation of Whisper in Low-Resource Domains	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	World Pilot: Steering Vision-Language-Action Models with World-Action Priors	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.64	SAFER-Nav: Enhancing Safety for Visual Robot Navigation via Segmentation-Aware Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.64	Cross-Modal Benchmarking for Robotic Perception in Natural Environments	arxiv 2026-06-10	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	FDA BLA761089: AJOVY (FREMANEZUMAB-VFRM) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA NDA203985: AFINITOR DISPERZ (EVEROLIMUS) — NOVARTIS PHARM	fda 2026-06-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	What will happen before election day for the 2026 midterms? [Add Answers] (Please ensure you read the rules)	manifold 2026-06-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Beyond the Commitment Boundary: Probing Epiphenomenal Chain-of-Thought in Large Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Is It You or Your Environment? A Bayesian Inference Framework for Genomically-Anchored Personalized Physiological Interpretation	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.64	PolyFlow: Safe and Efficient Polytope-Constrained Flow Matching with Constraint Embedding and Projection-free Update	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Bridging Modal Isolation in Interleaved Thinking: Supervising Modality Transitions via Stepwise Reinforcement	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Prefill Awareness in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Optical Implementation of Equilibrium Propagation Using Spatial Photonic Ising Machines	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	Foundations of Practical Quantum Advantage in Quantum-Informed Machine Learning for Predicting Chaos	arxiv 2026-06-11	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.64	Clipping Makes Distributed and Federated Asynchronous SGD Robust to Stragglers	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	WHAR Arena: Benchmarking the State of the Art in Efficient Wearable Human Activity Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-11	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	An Extensible and Lightweight Unified Architecture for Demosaicing Pixel-bin Image Sensors	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Deep Sleep Classification via EEG Signal Criticality: A Passive BCI Approach for Sleep-Improvement Neurofeedback	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.64	Predicting Cognitive Load from Speech and Interaction Dynamics in Dyadic Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Crossing the Validation Crisis: Cross-Validation Reduces Benchmarking Variance Surprisingly Well	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Operads for compositional reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Beyond Uniform Tokens: Adaptive Compression for Time Series Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	EvoBrowseComp: Benchmarking Search Agents on Evolving Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Does AI Reviewer See the Full Picture? Attacking and Defending Multimodal Peer Review	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Observable Patterns Are Not Explanations: A Causal-Geometric Analysis of Latent Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	RoboProcessBench: Benchmarking Process-Aware Understanding in Vision-Language Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	AIR-VLA+: Decoupling Movement and Manipulation via Cascaded Dual-Action Decoders with Asymmetric MoE for Aerial Robots	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	SemanticXR: Low Power and Real-time Queryable Semantic Mapping with an Object-Level Device-Cloud Architecture	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	By EOY 2030, what will happen with Google/UCSD’s retired-phone low-carbon computing project?	manifold 2026-06-13	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-13	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.64	FDA ANDA202693: ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM (ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM) — AVET LIFESCIENCES	fda 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.7.2	github_release 2019-07-19	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%