Predictions
1,312 of 1,607 predictions match — page 4 of 27. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 244_032 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 245_014 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on … | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_027 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by … | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_002 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_004 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| 246_006 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-05-31 |
| 246_015 | Space | SpaceX | Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_021 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 246_022 | AI | AI-scaling | Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | PolyMarket | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_023 | AI | AI-timing | Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. | PolyMarket | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 246_025 | AI | AI-timing | Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). | Sam Altman | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_026 | AI | AI-timing | In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Alt… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 246_030 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_037 | AI | NVIDIA | 50% of US data centers delayed, only 33% being built (due to chip/electrical … | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_051 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_052 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_001 | AI | $100T | xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_006 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_009 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 247_013 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today | Peter Dannenberg | 4/5 | C | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 247_028 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_032 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Full cell simulation achievable within 5 years | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 247_033 | Biotech/Longevity | AGI | Timelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | C | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-06-30 |
| 247_034 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Dario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decade | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 247_041 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_045 | Robotics | humanoids | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_046 | AI | AI-timing | AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_048 | Energy | AI-timing | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_057 | AI | AI-scaling | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 248_001 | Space | SpaceX | Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual sate… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 248_004 | Space | SpaceX | Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 248_008 | AI | AI-timing | Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year. | Jack Dorsey | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 248_011 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon th… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 248_026 | Other | AI-timing | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 248_031 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajector… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 248_041 | Space | orbital-AI | Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute t… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 248_043 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AI_002 | AI | country-of-geniuses-datacenter | Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses i… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| AI_004 | AI | smarter-than-smartest-human | AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automat… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| AUT_007 | Macro/Economy | US-GDP-5-to-6-2-percent-2026 | 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing mas… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 5/5 | B | 18.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| AUT_009 | AI | Powerful-AI-nation-of-geniuses | 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nati… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| AUT_013 | Auto/Transport | robotaxi-25-50-percent-US-2026 | 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| AUT_018 | Labor/Jobs | L1-customer-support-extinct | Level 1 customer support sector functionally extinct and replaced by autonomo… | Jason Calacanis | 4/5 | C | 30.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| AUT_024 | AI | massive-AI-breakthrough-H1-2026 | H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented conc… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CMQ_001 | AI | AGI-capability-roadmap | By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual intern… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CMQ_004 | AI | AGI-capability-roadmap | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professio… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| CMQ_005 | AI | software-automation | AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_008 | Labor/Jobs | automation-policy | Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |