Predictions
1,182 of 1,664 predictions match — page 23 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230_038 | AI | AI-timing | AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution eff… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| 231_010 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | China has peaked and is going to be on descent. | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| 231_011 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| 231_051 | Crypto | crypto | Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exch… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| 231_052 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe for… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| 232_039 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | 150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| 233_012 | AI | AI-timing | AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| 242_023 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2034-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 246_016 | Space | AI-timing | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2034-01-01 – 2034-11-30 |
| AI_006 | AI | agents-decade-out | True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horiz… | Andrej Karpathy | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2034-01-01 – 2034-10-31 |
| IND_004 | AI | AGI-decade-away-2-percent-blend | True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT mani… | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2034-01-01 – 2034-09-30 |
| 232_048 | Space | AI-timing | Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2034-06-01 – 2034-06-30 |
| 229_010 | Robotics | humanoids | Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one pe… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2040-10-31 |
| 240_035 | Energy | AI-timing | Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 | Meta | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 244_026 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| 244_027 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Uber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasks | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| AI_022 | Labor/Jobs | 80-percent-jobs-disrupted | 80% of all jobs globally face total disruption from AI automation by 2035 — K… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| AI_030 | Robotics | humanoids-outnumber-workers-2035 | By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| IND_024 | Macro/Economy | Solve-Everything-2035-abundance | Attainment of total material abundance by 2035 driven by AI-optimized physica… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| INF_057 | Energy | hyperscale-fusion-2035 | Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035… | Sam Altman | 3/5 | C | 8.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| INF_069 | Crypto | bitcoin-TAM-$270T | Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 t… | Michael Saylor | 3/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2046-12-31 |
| SPC_024 | Labor/Jobs | Gen-Alpha-space-jobs | Graduating class of 2035 (Generation Alpha) could entirely bypass traditional… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 10.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| 232_038 | Space | $100T | Lunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2035-06-01 – 2035-06-30 |
| 232_024 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if tr… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 233_008 | Education | AI-scaling | Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, n… | Joe Liemandt | 3/5 | D | 40.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2046-09-30 |
| 234_036 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries wil… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 236_019 | Robotics | AI-timing | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 239_001 | Macro/Economy | economy | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 239_008 | Space | AGI | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 239_009 | Space | AGI | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 239_010 | Space | AGI | Mass driver on the moon within 10 years | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 243_013 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 243_014 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 243_015 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Software space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providers | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 243_017 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomo… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 244_018 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 246_003 | Macro/Economy | economy | Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 248_009 | Macro/Economy | economy | Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| CYB_001 | Labor/Jobs | NVIDIA-100-to-1-agent-ratio | By 2036, NVIDIA itself will employ approximately 75,000 human workers alongsi… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| ROB_017 | Labor/Jobs | gig-10-to-15-years-replacement | Self-driving vehicles and autonomous systems will begin completely replacing … | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | A | 58.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2041-12-31 |
| 232_047 | Space | AGI | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-susta… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2037-06-01 – 2037-06-30 |
| 230_050 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2038-06-01 – 2038-06-30 |
| AI_007 | AI | singularity-2039-nanobots | Technological singularity arrives by 2039 — computing capacity matches the hu… | Ray Kurzweil | 5/5 | B | 20.0% | pending | 2039-01-01 – 2039-08-31 |
| 240_036 | Energy | AI-timing | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2040-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| CMQ_051 | Robotics | humanoid-TAM | Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units… | Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla | 5/5 | A | 40.0% | pending | 2040-01-01 – 2040-09-30 |
| SPC_011 | Space | lunar-factories-500-1000TW | Lunar-surface factories leveraging local resources will manufacture satellite… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 5.0% | pending | 2040-01-01 – 2060-10-31 |
| 232_049 | Space | orbital-AI | Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2040-06-01 – 2040-06-30 |
| 244_002 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 year… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2041-01-01 – 2051-11-30 |
| 234_033 | Robotics | humanoids | David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months | David Holz | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2045-01-01 – 2045-09-30 |
| SPC_026 | Space | multiplanetary-post-2045 | Humanity becoming a truly multiplanetary species is strictly an era BEYOND th… | Ray Kurzweil | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2045-01-01 – 2045-10-31 |