Predictions
81 of 1,621 predictions match — page 1 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMQ_050 | Robotics | fourth-wave-AI | Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — project… | Industry analysts (synthesis) | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| 229_003 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 229_007 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from log… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 229_020 | Robotics | humanoids | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and d… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 229_022 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing e… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 229_026 | Robotics | AI-scaling | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability i… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 229_043 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad di… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 239_013 | Robotics | Optimus | Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_061 | Robotics | humanoids | China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (no… | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 247_045 | Robotics | humanoids | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 248_043 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CMQ_052 | Robotics | humanoid-economics | Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/mon… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | A | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| COD_ROB_003 | Robotics | humanoid-deployment | At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end … | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 58.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| INF_023 | Robotics | automated-construction | Data-center physical shells will be increasingly erected by 3D-printing and r… | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| ROB_007 | Robotics | Physical-AI-50T-opportunity | The technology sector is crossing a $1 trillion computing inflection point tr… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 48.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-09-30 |
| ROB_009 | Robotics | Optimus-30K-retail-2026 | External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,00… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 229_033 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting t… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-02-01 – 2026-02-28 |
| COD_ROB_001 | Robotics | humanoid-production | Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at lea… | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-29 – 2026-12-31 |
| 229_005 | Robotics | humanoids | The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 p… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_012 | Robotics | humanoids | Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_014 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expan… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_016 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundre… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_017 | Robotics | humanoids | Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit. | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_018 | Robotics | humanoids | In the future, everything that moves (besides humans) will be a robot. | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_019 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_024 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,0… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_029 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_031 | Robotics | humanoids | At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_039 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into f… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_040 | Robotics | AI-scaling | When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millim… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_045 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoi… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_046 | Robotics | humanoids | Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-09-30 |
| 234_032 | Robotics | humanoids | Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 236_020 | Robotics | humanoids | No robot plumbers or HVAC repair people anytime soon | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 236_022 | Robotics | humanoids | Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 239_014 | Robotics | Optimus | Tesla will build out 10M sq ft Optimus factory | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_047 | Robotics | AI-timing | Physical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 241_002 | Robotics | humanoids | Robots will take longer than digital/software systems to have impact | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 242_050 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 243_030 | Robotics | humanoids | Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane r… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_039 | Robotics | AI-timing | Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, Manna | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 244_010 | Robotics | autonomous | Machines will be more predictable than human drivers with higher acceptance r… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| COD_ROB_002 | Robotics | consumer-humanoid | 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 229_006 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 229_015 | Robotics | AI-timing | The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 229_030 | Robotics | humanoids | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 229_034 | Robotics | humanoids | Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_025 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_027 | Robotics | humanoids | China will win low-end robotic hardware race | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_056 | Robotics | humanoids | Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |