Predictions
319 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 7. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240_014 | AI | AI-timing | Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| CMQ_013 | AI | OOM-scaling | A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — brid… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_015 | AI | algorithmic-efficiency | Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effect… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 240_056 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% i… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AUT_025 | AI | Deep-Utopia-crisis-of-meaning | Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous sy… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 42.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2040-10-31 |
| INF_073 | AI | AI-smarter-than-humanity-2030 | AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smar… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2031-08-31 |
| 229_032 | AI | AI-timing | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that re… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 230_001 | AI | AI-timing | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with huma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 230_004 | AI | AI-scaling | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rew… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 230_025 | AI | AI-timing | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 230_027 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weap… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 230_028 | AI | AI-timing | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from s… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 230_029 | AI | AI-timing | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| 230_031 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across ma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 230_033 | AI | orbital-AI | Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2033-10-31 |
| 230_040 | AI | AI-scaling | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will … | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 230_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 230_046 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dr… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 231_012 | AI | AI-timing | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 231_014 | AI | AI-scaling | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 231_046 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plot… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 231_047 | AI | AI-timing | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 232_013 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 202… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 232_015 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 232_060 | AI | AI-scaling | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicat… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 233_005 | AI | AI-scaling | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 234_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_005 | AI | AGI | Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x… | Demis Hassabis | 3/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 234_006 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-09-30 |
| 234_017 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks | OpenAI Codex Lead | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_018 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_026 | AI | AI-timing | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 235_005 | AI | AI-scaling | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 235_006 | AI | AI-scaling | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 235_014 | AI | AI-timing | Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constan… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 236_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 237_003 | AI | AI-timing | 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 237_006 | AI | AI-scaling | Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on … | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 237_009 | AI | AI-scaling | ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 237_022 | AI | AI-scaling | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents … | Alex Finn | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 237_024 | AI | AI-timing | Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transc… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 237_025 | AI | AI-timing | We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_023 | AI | AI-scaling | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in … | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_025 | AI | AI-timing | AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level | Emad Mostaque | 5/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_039 | AI | AI-timing | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_002 | AI | AGI | AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 … | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 239_003 | AI | AGI | We are currently in AI hard takeoff | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 240_004 | AI | AI-timing | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_016 | AI | AI-scaling | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |