Predictions
319 of 1,622 predictions match — page 6 of 7. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230_003 | AI | AI-scaling | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely re… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_006 | AI | AI-scaling | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an al… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_042 | AI | AI-timing | A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'li… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_004 | AI | AI-timing | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, an… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_013 | AI | AI-timing | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_008 | AI | AI-timing | Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mecha… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_009 | AI | AI-timing | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers vo… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_010 | AI | AI-timing | Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_034 | AI | AI-timing | Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best pro… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_044 | AI | AI-scaling | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitor… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_053 | AI | AI-scaling | To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_015 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_037 | AI | AI-scaling | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one u… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 236_029 | AI | AI-timing | Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regul… | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_023 | AI | AGI | Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 241_008 | AI | AI-scaling | AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially mill… | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_026 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via en… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_027 | AI | $100T | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_030 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillions | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 248_007 | AI | AI-timing | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_005 | AI | AI-scaling | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withhe… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 242_001 | AI | AGI | Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current glob… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 248_016 | AI | AI-scaling | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of y… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 248_033 | AI | AI-scaling | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| CMQ_002 | AI | AGI-capability-roadmap | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving auton… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_006 | AI | DC-land-coverage | Over time, very large fractions of the earth's land surface will be given ove… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| 230_008 | AI | AI-timing | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and materi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_007 | AI | AI-timing | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_008 | AI | AI-timing | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_017 | AI | AI-scaling | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_024 | AI | AI-scaling | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in th… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_039 | AI | NVIDIA | Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_048 | AI | AI-timing | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will compl… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_002 | AI | AI-timing | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more ra… | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_011 | AI | AI-timing | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for hi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_016 | AI | AI-timing | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inven… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_017 | AI | AI-timing | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_019 | AI | AI-timing | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | Ben Horowitz | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_023 | AI | AI-timing | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastr… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_033 | AI | crypto | Cryptographically strong authentication is the only security technique that w… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_040 | AI | superintelligence | Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of… | Nick Bostrom | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for build… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_054 | AI | AI-timing | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_055 | AI | AI-timing | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement un… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_056 | AI | AI-timing | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattene… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_058 | AI | AI-timing | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 233_006 | AI | AI-timing | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 an… | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 233_021 | AI | AGI | AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making … | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |