Predictions
105 of 1,621 predictions match — page 2 of 3. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 246_033 | AI | autonomous | Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of hum… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_034 | AI | AI-timing | Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_049 | AI | AI-scaling | Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 231_001 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_015 | AI | AI-scaling | Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_016 | AI | AI-scaling | Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_025 | AI | AI-scaling | Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_050 | AI | AI-timing | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnera… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 235_010 | AI | AI-scaling | Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to ex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 235_035 | AI | AI-timing | Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_018 | AI | AI-timing | We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_030 | AI | AI-scaling | Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical pa… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 238_020 | AI | AI-timing | Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 238_040 | AI | AI-scaling | Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 fo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_015 | AI | AI-timing | Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like chi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_031 | AI | AI-timing | Samsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_058 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_029 | AI | AI-scaling | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_048 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_011 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_012 | AI | AI-timing | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_014 | AI | AI-timing | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_036 | AI | AI-timing | AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_037 | AI | orbital-AI | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute i… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_040 | AI | AI-timing | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_048 | AI | AI-scaling | AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_049 | AI | AI-timing | Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligen… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 238_005 | AI | AI-timing | By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-09-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 234_003 | AI | AI-timing | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized wh… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 238_070 | AI | AI-scaling | Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 240_012 | AI | AI-timing | Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_007 | AI | OpenAI-compute-dominance | OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 230_003 | AI | AI-scaling | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely re… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_004 | AI | AI-timing | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, an… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_013 | AI | AI-timing | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_044 | AI | AI-scaling | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitor… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_015 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_037 | AI | AI-scaling | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one u… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_023 | AI | AGI | Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_026 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via en… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_027 | AI | $100T | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 248_007 | AI | AI-timing | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_008 | AI | AI-timing | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and materi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_007 | AI | AI-timing | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_017 | AI | AI-scaling | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_011 | AI | AI-timing | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for hi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |