Validations Queue
78,110 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 76 of 168, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | Any new Veo model released during Google I/O(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.61 | Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.61 | Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.61 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 10, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 42% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | 9984.T (SoftBank Group Corp.) over 10,000 by Thursday 11 June, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.61 | Will this market get between 50-100 unique traders?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 235_028 Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 56% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.61 | Will this market get between 75-150 unique traders?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 29% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Apple announce the M5 Mac mini during the WWDC Keynote?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-06 | COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack | Geopolitics | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-06 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.61 | Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in June?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.61 | Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TSTST?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-12 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-14 | IND_026 Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, not where they are today' — 'this is the worst the models will ever be'. Next-generation models will 'eat your scaffolding for breakfast'; manual software configuration, standar... Kevin Weil | Labor/Jobs | 61% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.61 | Will a mod comment on this market?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-25 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.61 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.61 | Will US average gas price reach $4.500 in May 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.61 | will i qualify for arml tiebreaker 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | ||
| 0.61 | Will I have a market with more than 21 traders in May?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | My current relationship lasts >6 months (1 Jan to 1 Jul 2026)(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Kalshi or Polymarket be convicted of fraud before 2029?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% |