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83,930 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 163 of 179, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | This Market will Resolve at number of Traders%(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 240_039 Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularity Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Iran / US war resume before May 22nd?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | |
| 0.56 | On Jan 1, 2028, will it be legal to boil a lobster alive in Switzerland?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Fifa World Cup winner, draw or lose in the group stage?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jose Luis Ricon find a new girlfriend by EOY2026?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (SS 433)(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will a wild card team win the MLB World Series in 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 244_018 In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_003 Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous podcasting Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Spurs or Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader meet in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 240_060 Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 54% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Faber–Jackson relation)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will Apple TV+ launch in Romania tommorow at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | ......MART.......(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_006 The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will monsoon reach Bihar by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Will the UzChess Cup (Masters division) go to tiebreaks?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 70% |