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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.63	Fortive Corp (FTV) (CIK 0001659166)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Improving Reproducibility in Evaluation through Multi-Level Annotator Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	MILM: Large Language Models for Multimodal Irregular Time Series with Informative Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Beyond Perplexity: A Geometric and Spectral Study of Low-Rank Pre-Training	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	LoREnc: Low-Rank Encryption for Securing Foundation Models and LoRA Adapters	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Watermarking Should Be Treated as a Monitoring Primitive	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Ergodic Trajectory Design by Learned Pushforward Maps: Provable Coverage via Conditional Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	FeatCal: Feature Calibration for Post-Merging Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Understanding and Accelerating the Training of Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.63	Implicit Behavioral Decoding from Next-Step Spike Forecasts at Population Scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Implicit Behavioral Decoding from Next-Step Spike Forecasts at Population Scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.63	\emph{DRIFT}: A Benchmark for Task-Free Continual Graph Learning with Continuous Distribution Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	F-GRPO: Factorized Group-Relative Policy Optimization for Unified Candidate Generation and Ranking	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	From Instance Selection to Fixed-Pool Data Recipe Search for Supervised Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	FDA BLA761100: ONTRUZANT (TRASTUZUMAB-DTTB) — SAMSUNG BIOEPIS CO LTD	fda 2026-04-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Eradicating Negative Transfer in Multi-Physics Foundation Models via Sparse Mixture-of-Experts Routing	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Novel Dynamic Batch-Sensitive Adam Optimiser for Vehicular Accident Injury Severity Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Croissant Baker: Metadata Generation for Discoverable, Governable, and Reusable ML Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Second-Order Actor-Critic Methods for Discounted MDPs via Policy Hessian Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Slot-MPC: Goal-Conditioned Model Predictive Control with Object-Centric Representations	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	REALM: Retrospective Encoder Alignment for LFP Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Compositional Sparsity as an Inductive Bias for Neural Architecture Design	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Crys-JEPA: Accelerating Crystal Discovery via Embedding Screening and Generative Refinement	arxiv 2026-05-14	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	ReMIA: a Powerful and Efficient Alternative to Membership Inference Attacks against Synthetic Data Generators	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	Large Dimensional Kernel Ridge Regression: Extending to Product Kernels	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	ROAD: Adaptive Data Mixing for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning via Bi-Level Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Watch your neighbors: Training statistically accurate chaotic systems with local phase space information	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Paraphrasing Attack Resilience of Various AI-Generated Text Detection Methods	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Mini-JEPA Foundation Model Fleet Enables Agentic Hydrologic Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Mini-JEPA Foundation Model Fleet Enables Agentic Hydrologic Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-13	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.63	FDA BLA761352: BIZENGRI (ZENOCUTUZUMAB-ZBCO) — MERUS N.V.	fda 2026-05-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Will Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-17	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Will AI psychosis make it into the DSM6?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-16	IND_009 Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d... Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	19%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 18?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 21?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-08-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will @jatloe make a comment on this market and @DottedCalculator responds NO to the qeustion that @jatloe made?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-18	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.63	Will ETH-USD close above $3,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.63	Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.63	Will Polymarket reimburse for the incorrect resolution on the crypto fund market?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.63	DashAttention: Differentiable and Adaptive Sparse Hierarchical Attention	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	When Outcome Looks Right But Discipline Fails: Trace-Based Evaluation Under Hidden Competitor State	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Self-supervised local learning rules learn the hidden hierarchical structure of high-dimensional data	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Probing for Representation Manifolds in Superposition	arxiv 2026-05-18	239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.63	Probing for Representation Manifolds in Superposition	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Prompt2Fingerprint: Plug-and-Play LLM Fingerprinting via Text-to-Weight Generation	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	Generalized Functional ANOVA in Closed-Form: A Unified View of Additive Explanations	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Attacking the First-Principle: A Black-Box, Query-Free Targeted Mimicry Attack on Binary Function Classifiers	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.63	Are Sparse Autoencoder Benchmarks Reliable?	arxiv 2026-05-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Long-horizon prediction of three-dimensional wall-bounded turbulence with CTA-Swin-UNet and resolvent analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	SNLP: Layer-Parallel Inference via Structured Newton Corrections	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Training Infinitely Deep and Wide Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-17	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Training Infinitely Deep and Wide Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	When a Zero-Shooter Cheats: Improving Age Estimation via Activation Steering	arxiv 2026-05-17	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.63	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.103.1	github_release 2026-05-19	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Will the Internet Computer Protocol token/coin (ICP) reach $3.50 by end of June 30, 2026?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will "Implications Of Predicting The Next Token" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-27	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	Will "Implications Of Predicting The Next Token" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-25	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.63	In what year will there be 5000 emoji?	manifold 2026-05-24	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.63	Will "Fail safe(r) at alignment by channeling rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-24	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.63	Tiny but Trusted: Efficient Vision-Language Reasoning for Time-Series Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	No More K-means:Single-Stage Sparse Coding for Efficient Multi-Vector Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	PokerSkill: LLMs Can Play Expert-Level Poker without Training or Solvers	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Domain-Specific Data Synthesis for LLMs via Minimal Sufficient Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	KairosAgent: Agentic Time Series Forecasting with Fused Semantic Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Internal Representation, Not Clinical Knowledge: Where Apparent LLM Triage Failures Originate	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	PRAIB: Peer Review AI Benchmark of Behaviour of LLM-Assisted Reviewing	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.63	EviLink: Multi-Path Schema Linking with Uncertainty-Guided Evidence Acquisition for Large-Scale Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	SCOPE: A Lightweight-training LLM Framework for Air Traffic Control Readback Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	MarginGate: Sparse Margin-Triggered Verification for Batch-Invariant LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	Q-ANCHOR: Federated Quantum Learning with ZNE-guided Correction	arxiv 2026-05-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	TraceCodec: A Compiler-Backed Neural Codec for Stateful Multi-Flow Network Traffic Traces	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.63	CRB-Guided Framework Design and Resource Allocation for Indoor mmWave ISCC Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	On-Policy Replay for Continual Supervised Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	Access Sets Matter: Budgeting Expert Reads for Scalable Weight-Space Model Merging	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Access Sets Matter: Budgeting Expert Reads for Scalable Weight-Space Model Merging	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Composing Non-Conjugate Factor Graphs with Closed-Form Variational Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Information-Directed Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Implicit Identity Technologies for LLMs: Fingerprinting and Watermarking across Datasets, Models, and Generated Content	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.63	SEAL: Can Saturated Benchmarks Be Revived by LLM-as-a-Meta-Judge?	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Adaptive Targeted Dynamic Chunking for Tokenization-Free Hierarchical Model	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	UniSteer: Text-Guided Flow Matching in Activation Space for Versatile LLM Steering	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Beyond English and Evasion: A Human-Annotated Multi-Domain Benchmark for High-Stakes LLM Safety Evaluation in Chinese	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	Verifiable Rewards Beyond Math and Code: Lightweight Corpus-Grounded Process Supervision for Factual Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	FinGuard: Detecting Financial Regulatory Non-Compliance in LLM Interactions	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Rethinking Stepwise Model Routing: A Cost-Efficient Table Reasoning Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Wait! There's a Way Out: A Decision Mechanism for Forecasting Conversational Derailment	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	ReasonOps: Operator Segmentation for LLM Reasoning Traces	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	SafeRx-Agent: A Knowledge-Grounded Multi-Agent Framework for Safe and Explainable Medication Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-27	232_044 There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	EXACT-MPPI: Exact Signed-Distance Navigation for Arbitrary-Footprint Robots from Point Clouds via Path Integral Control	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.63	A Progress-Aware Leader-Follower Midair Docking System for Dual-Drone Aerial Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Gate Parameter Lee-Yang Zeros and Dynamical Phases in Quantum Circuits	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	FDA ANDA215217: LEVALBUTEROL HYDROCHLORIDE (LEVALBUTEROL HYDROCHLORIDE) — NEPHRON	fda 2026-05-26	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	US Gas Price $3.800 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-31	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	FDA BLA761170: PHESGO (PERTUZUMAB, TRASTUZUMAB, AND HYALURONIDASE-ZZXF) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-01	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.63	Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2027?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-02	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.63	ClinEnv: An Interactive Multi-Stage Long Horizon EHR Environment for Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	Food Noise & False Safety: A Systematic Evaluation of How LLMs Fail to Adapt to Eating Disorder Queries with Clinician Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	Evolutionary Discovery of Bivariate Bicycle Codes with LLM-Guided Search	arxiv 2026-06-01	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	AutoForest: Automatically Generating Forest Plots from Biomedical Studies with End-to-End Evidence Extraction and Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-01	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.63	Coordination Graphs for Constrained Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Ranking vs. Assignment: The Metric Mismatch in Multi-View Object Association	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Multilinguality of Large Language Models From a Structural Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Consistency evaluation of benchmarks used for causal discovery	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	THRD: A Training-Free Multi-Turn Defense Framework for Jailbreak Attacks on Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.63	Two-Fidelity Best-Action Identification for Stochastic Minimax Tree	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Speculative Sampling For Faster Molecular Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-01	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.63	Deep Learning for Remote Sensing to Improve Flood Inundation Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	A combination of noise and bilateral filters achieve supralinear and scalable adversarial robustness in CNNs	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	ShaplEIG: Bayesian Experimental Design for Shapley Value Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.63	A Closer Look at In-Distribution vs. Out-of-Distribution Accuracy for Open-Set Test-time Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	MidSurfNet: Learnable Face Pairing and Interference Implicit Fields for Generalized Mid-surface Abstraction	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	ContinuousBench: Can Differentially Private Synthetic Text Improve Capabilities?	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	An Algebraic View of the Expressivity of Recurrent Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	MPMWorlds: Material-Point-Method Simulations for Inferring and Extrapolating Physical Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.63	Learning-based Directed Graph Abstraction of Combinatorial Spaces for Order-Preserving Search in Mixed-Combinatorial Nonlinear Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-31	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	SN-WER: Script-Normalized WER for Multi-Script Indic ASR Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	CARTE: A Benchmark for Mapping Language Model Knowledge Across France	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Eyettention II: A Dual-Sequence Architecture for Modeling Fixation Location, Within-Word Landing Position, and Fixation Duration in Reading	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	CultureForest: Understanding and Evaluating Cultural Norm Grounded Reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Cross-lingual Self-Consistency for Multilingual Reasoning with Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	DrugClaw and DrugAudit: A Primary-Source-Grounded Agent and Authority-Aware Benchmark for Drug-Information Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-31	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.63	From Outliers to Errors: Auditing Pali-to-English LLM Translations with Multi-Reference Adjudication	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	MLLM-Microscope: Unlocking Hidden Structure Within Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-30	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-03	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-03	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	FDA ANDA062800: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ALMAJECT	fda 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.63	Will Solana dip to $60 in June?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-04	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.63	Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS) (CIK 0001821769)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.63	Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	CLEAR: Cognition and Latent Evaluation for Adaptive Routing in End-to-End Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	A Finite Certificate for the Positive $n=9$ Vasc Inequality	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Agent-Orchestrated Adaptive RAG: A Comparative Study on Structured and Multi-Hop Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	ArcANE: Do Role-Playing Language Agents Stay in Character at the Right Time?	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	The Post-GCN Decade Revisited: Curvature-Stratified Evaluation of Relational Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	Effective Dimensionality as an Operator Invariant for Physics-Preserving Constraint Adaptation in Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	3D Underwater Path Planning via Generative Flow Field Surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Online KL-Regularized Reinforcement Learning with Function Approximation under Misspecification	arxiv 2026-06-04	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	DBHN-Net: Dual-Branch Hybrid Neural Network For Low-Complexity Monaural Speech Enhancement	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Two-Way Is Better Than One: Bidirectional Alignment with Cycle Consistency for Exemplar-Free Class-Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	Mitigating the Curse of Dimensionality in Uniform Convergence of Deep Neural Networks via Smooth Activations	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Executable Schema Contracts: From Automatic Ingestion to Multi-Source Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	Revising Context, Shifting Simulated Stance: Auditing LLM-Based Stance Simulation in Online Discussions	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.63	Reinforcement Learning Elicits Contextual Learning of Unseen Language Translation	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	EDIT: Evidence-Diagnosed Intervention Training for Rule-Faithful LLM Grading	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price	Education	66%
0.63	EDIT: Evidence-Diagnosed Intervention Training for Rule-Faithful LLM Grading	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	The Tell-Tale Norm: $\ell_2$ Magnitude as a Signal for Reasoning Dynamics in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	MemoryCard: Topic-Aware Multi-Modal Clue Compression for Long-Video Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	AdaPLD: Adaptive Retrieval and Reuse for Efficient Model-Free Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	AdaPLD: Adaptive Retrieval and Reuse for Efficient Model-Free Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Failed Reasoning Traces Tell You What Is Fixable (But Not by Reading Them)	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Depth-Attention: Cross-Layer Value Mixing for Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	M$^3$Eval: Multi-Modal Memory Evaluation through Cognitively-Grounded Video Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Flow-based Policy Adaptation without Policy Updates	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Gotta Grow Fast: Design and Benchmarking of a Tip Mount for High-Speed Vine Robots	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Preserving Full 6-DOF Actuation Under Abrupt Total Rotor Failures: Passive Fault-Tolerant Flight Control Using a Biaxial-Tilt Hexacopter	arxiv 2026-06-04	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.63	MoDex: A Diffusion Policy for Sequential Multi-Object Dexterous Grasping	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	MAD: Mapping-Aware World Models for Agile Quadrotor Flight	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Dirichlet walls and the end of time	arxiv 2026-06-03	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	FDA ANDA208047: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — DR REDDYS	fda 2026-06-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA ANDA213343: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will XRP reach $3.00 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%