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80,311 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 136 of 176, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-08 | INF_034 Equinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments designed for high-density power-hungry AI workloads — slated to be fully operational by 2026. Equinix | Real Estate | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | ||
| 0.57 | Will England reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Does Saudi Arabia normalize with Israel before December 31 2028?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | |
| 0.57 | Do you like 62% odds?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Do you like 62% odds?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 242_046 Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements Dave Blundin | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (dark matter & banana)(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Will silver hit $60/ oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | VALVE?!(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 242_021 Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Will there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | Will SF Prop A, June 2026, pass?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (Cosmic Explorer)(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-11 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? [Polymarket](market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 240_027 SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 74% | |
| 0.57 | This Market will Resolve at number of Traders%(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% |