Validations Queue

94,964 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 264 of 881, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.64manifold
2026-04-29
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.64manifold
2026-04-29
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.64manifold
2026-04-29
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.64manifold
2026-04-27
230_017
Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).
Dave Blundin
Auto/Transport46%
0.64manifold
2026-04-25
239_002
AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest
Elon Musk
AI44%
0.64manifold
2026-04-25
AUT_024
H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int...
Morgan Stanley
AI42%
0.64manifold
2026-04-23
247_020
Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs50%
0.64gdelt
2026-04-30
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.64gdelt
2026-04-30
246_002
SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks38%
0.64
gdelt
2026-04-30
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.64gdelt
2026-04-30
246_048
Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.64
gdelt
2026-04-30
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.64polymarket
2026-04-25
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.64polymarket
2026-04-02
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.64manifold
2026-04-30
246_013
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.
Peter Diamandis
Space42%
0.64polymarket
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.64polymarket
2026-01-09
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.64
Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%)
manifold
2026-05-01
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.64manifold
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2027
First $1T+ IPO in 2027
ipo_trillion_plus40%
0.64polymarket
2026-03-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.64polymarket
2025-11-12
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.64manifold
2026-05-02
238_047
US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar
Emad Mostaque
Energy45%
0.64manifold
2026-05-01
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.64polymarket
2026-05-01
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.64polymarket
2026-05-01
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.64manifold
2026-05-04
INF_048
Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets.
IEA
Energy48%
0.64polymarket
2026-04-29
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.64polymarket
2025-07-10
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.64polymarket
2025-07-08
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.64manifold
2026-05-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.64
FDA ANDA210249: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — EUGIA PHARMA
fda
2026-04-27
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.64
FDA NDA210655: PERSERIS KIT (RISPERIDONE) — INDIVIOR
fda
2026-04-30
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity36%
0.64github_release
2026-03-13
234_017
OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks
OpenAI Codex Lead
AI41%
0.64github_release
2026-01-27
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.64github_release
2026-01-27
247_011
OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.64github_release
2026-05-05
246_047
Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.
Peter Diamandis
AI76%
0.64github_release
2026-01-08
INF_072
There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently.
Demis Hassabis
AI40%
0.64github_release
2025-08-06
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.64github_release
2023-10-04
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.64polymarket
2026-03-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.64polymarket
2025-07-03
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
236_028
AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately
Andrew Yang
Consumer51%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-04
238_012
OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes
Kevin Weil
AI38%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-04
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-04
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-04
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-04
IND_020
Massive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves its 'De Novo' moment where an AI-designed drug candidate triggers multi-billion-dollar partnerships; AI expands Total Addressable Market (TAM) of gene editing by 100x, moving...
Morgan Stanley
Biotech/Longevity36%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
FUT_003
Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-04
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_055
Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes.
Brett Adcock
Robotics29%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-04
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_058
Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency.
Alex Finn
AI/Compute59%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-05
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-04
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-04
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.64
FDA ANDA214957: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — ASCENT PHARMS INC
fda
2026-04-28
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.64
FDA ANDA220660: ELTROMBOPAG OLAMINE (ELTROMBOPAG OLAMINE) — AIZANT
fda
2026-04-28
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.64
FDA NDA215430: AUVELITY (BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE) — AXSOME
fda
2026-04-30
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-06
FUT_001
Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie...
Superforecaster Community
AI48%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-06
232_007
TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry.
Dave Blundin
Media/Ads45%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-06
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-06
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-06
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.64github_release
2019-10-14
TK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15%
0.64github_release
2026-01-23
229_047
Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned.
Brett Adcock
AI77%
0.64github_release
2025-06-25
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.64polymarket
2026-05-08
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.64polymarket
2025-11-24
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.64manifold
2026-05-08
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.64manifold
2026-05-08
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
CYB_022
Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI76%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
ROB_025
Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati...
Peter Dannenberg
Biotech/Longevity70%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
IND_013
General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future...
Jimmy Ba
AI79%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
AI_024
As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig...
Mark Cuban
Consumer45%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
CYB_013
The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou...
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks52%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
CYB_023
Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de...
Michael Saylor
Crypto26%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
AUT_014
Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o...
Emad Mostaque
AI53%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
229_044
Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks.
Brett Adcock
AI35%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
CYB_003
Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI...
Alex Finn
AI55%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.64arxiv
2026-05-07
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%