Predictions
40 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 229_037 | Energy | humanoids | With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europ… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2032-11-30 |
| 235_022 | Energy | AI-timing | US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_047 | Energy | AI-timing | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 240_034 | Energy | AI-timing | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 241_016 | Energy | AI-timing | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_017 | Energy | AI-timing | Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_048 | Energy | AI-timing | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_012 | Energy | AI-power-additions | AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually t… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_014 | Energy | DC-carbon-emissions | Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively th… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 238_046 | Energy | AI-timing | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Gwynne Shotwell / xAI | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31 |
| 238_066 | Energy | AI-timing | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US … | Pete (audience, data center builder) | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31 |
| 238_067 | Energy | AI-scaling | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed region… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31 |
| 239_028 | Energy | AGI | Intelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possible | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_017 | Energy | AI-timing | Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massiv… | Salim Ismail | 2/5 | D | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-11-30 |
| 242_008 | Energy | AI-scaling | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-11-30 |
| 246_018 | Energy | AI-timing | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar pro… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-11-30 |
| 247_049 | Energy | AI-timing | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-11-30 |
| 241_020 | Energy | AI-timing | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_059 | Energy | AI-timing | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_031 | Energy | autonomous | Uber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger reality | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 235_024 | Energy | abundance | In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| INF_010 | Energy | US-power-shortfall | US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW pow… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_053 | Energy | nuclear-gigasite-architecture | Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical Hig… | Isaiah Taylor | 4/5 | C | 30.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| INF_055 | Energy | fusion-commercial-debut | Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — … | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 28.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 236_039 | Energy | AI-timing | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 241_023 | Energy | AI-timing | 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_051 | Energy | AI-scaling | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_030 | Energy | AI-timing | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmid… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| 235_023 | Energy | AI-timing | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 247_047 | Energy | AI-timing | Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| INF_051 | Energy | tech-as-utility-inversion | Tech-sector data centers will invert the tech-utility relationship: when oper… | Jensen Huang | 3/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| INF_054 | Energy | synthetic-hydrocarbons-nuclear | Valar HTGR gigasites will chemically store excess energy by synthesizing carb… | Isaiah Taylor | 3/5 | C | 18.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| INF_056 | Energy | OpenAI-Helion-5GW-deal | Helion will supply OpenAI with 5 gigawatts of fusion electricity by 2030 (rou… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 15.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 232_045 | Energy | SpaceX | Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 246_041 | Energy | AI-timing | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 240_035 | Energy | AI-timing | Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 | Meta | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| INF_057 | Energy | hyperscale-fusion-2035 | Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035… | Sam Altman | 3/5 | C | 8.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 240_036 | Energy | AI-timing | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2040-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| 244_029 | Energy | AI-timing | Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2046-01-01 – 2046-10-31 |
| FUT_011 | Energy | solar-sub-cent-per-kWh-2050 | By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal … | Ramez Naam | 5/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2050-01-01 – 2050-11-30 |