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78,926 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 96 of 171, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | Will Powell say "good afternoon" during the April Press Conference?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Will I solve an Erdos problem?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | Will the Great Pyramid of Giza Big Void be explored in 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Kamala announce a run in 2028(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. Dario Amodei | AI | 77% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt | Education | 51% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.59 | Will USD strengthen against EUR in the next 24h?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis | AI | 52% | |
| 0.59 | Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 229_015 The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 43% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | ||
| 0.59 | Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_014 Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability. Sam Altman | AI | 51% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 22% | |
| 0.59 | Will the US average gas price hit $5 per gallon in May 2026?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Kalshi or Polymarket be convicted of fraud before 2029?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | Will this market get between 55-75 unique traders?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.59 | METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_015 Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.59 | Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | Will there be a physical protest at YouTube headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.59 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 10, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.59 | 9984.T (SoftBank Group Corp.) over 10,000 by Thursday 11 June, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2026/2027 Bundesliga season(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in June 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 230_021 Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% |