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78,926 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 89 of 204, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.60 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-07-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.60 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.60 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-10-10 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-10-10 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-01-13 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | |
| 0.60 | Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 235_003 First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley | Space | 60% | ||
| 0.60 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | CMQ_061 Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt. Mark Cuban | Crypto | 4% | |
| 0.60 | Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-10-10 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.60 | Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Spurs (-10.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-05 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 30% | ||
| 0.60 | Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.60 | Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-12-22 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Starmer out by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-01-07 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.60 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | Will CR Brasil vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.60 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-23 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.60 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Putin visit China by May 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.60 | Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% |