Validations Queue
75,032 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 58 of 165, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-11 | COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 247_026 Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) close above $65,000 on July 31, 2026?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-25 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-25 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 229_006 Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-24 | ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk | Robotics | 18% | ||
| 0.62 | Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_015 Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | Bitcoin $65K in May?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | Will USD strengthen against EUR in the next 24h?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.62 | will i qualify for arml tiebreaker 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-03 | SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.62 | Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 46% | |
| 0.62 | will [redacted] occur as of saturday(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-07 | SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | SEM_040 Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. Michael Saylor | Finance/Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | |
| 0.62 | Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 46% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-10 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 229_013 The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. Brett Adcock | AI | 73% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | “Will Elon Musk mention Dogecoin before June ends?”(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | will there be a new llm release by the end of may?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-17 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.62 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | IND_019 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... Morgan Stanley | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-24 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 46% |