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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.64	Cellular Predictions on the Move: What about Data?	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	Statistically Valid Hyperparameter Selection: From Tuning to Guarantees	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Causal-rCM: A Unified Teacher-Forcing and Self-Forcing Open Recipe for Autoregressive Diffusion Distillation in Streaming Video Generation and Interactive World Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	The Generalization Spectrum: A Chromatographic Approach to Evaluating Learning Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Interpretable Keystroke Biomarkers in Parkinson's Disease	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.64	Scalable Peptide Design via Memory-Efficient Equivariant Transformer	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Certification of Machine Learning Models via Directional Sharpness	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	How Large Language Models Source Brand Reputation Across Languages and Markets	arxiv 2026-06-24	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.64	Action ControlNet: A Lightweight Delay-Aware Adapter for Smooth Asynchronous Control in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	MIL-LC: A Robust Magnetometer-Inertial-LiDAR Fusion Multimodal Localization Framework	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Conformal Orbit-Valid Trust Horizons for Equivariant World Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.64	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-26	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	A Process Harness for Uplifting Legacy Workflows to Agentic BPM: Design and Realization in CUGA FLO	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Learning to Fold: prizewinning solution at LeHome Challenge 2026 (1st place online, 2nd offline)	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Auditing Framing-Sensitive Behavioral Instability in Large Language Models for Mental Health Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Information-Aware KV Cache Compression for Long Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	AIGP: An LLM-Based Framework for Long-Term Value Alignment in E-Commerce Pricing	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	SKILL-DISCO: Distilling and Compiling Agent Traces into Reusable Procedural Skills	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	IDEA: Insensitive to Dynamics Mismatch via Effect Alignment for Sim-to-Real Transfer in Multi-Agent Control	arxiv 2026-06-25	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	Retrieval-Warmed Energy-Based Reasoning: A Five-Arm Ablation Methodology for Diffusion-as-Inference on Structured Reasoning Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	OpenFinGym: A Verifiable Multi-Task Gym Environment for Evaluating Quant Agents	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.64	Accelerating Skill Assessment in Chess: A Drift-Diffusion-Enhanced Elo Rating System	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.64	How Good Can Linear Models Be for Time-Series Forecasting?	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_014 Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability. Sam Altman	AI	51%
0.64	RolloutPipe: Overlapping Pipelined Rollout and Training in Disaggregated On-Policy LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	ProtoKV: Streaming Video Understanding under Delayed Query with Summary-State Memory	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Revisiting Action Factorization for Complex Action Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Finding the Time to Think: Learning Planning Budgets in Real-Time RL	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Equivariance and Augmentation for Bayesian Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	The Role of Input Dimensionality in the Emergence and Targeted Control of Adversarial Examples	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	The Riddle Riddle: Testing Flexible Reasoning in Large Language Models and Humans	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	The Generalization Spectrum: A Chromatographic Approach to Evaluating Learning Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	World Action Models Enable Continual Imitation Learning with Recurrent Generative Replays	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	HumanoidUMI: Bridging Robot-Free Demonstrations and Humanoid Whole-Body Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	RelAfford6D: Relational 6D Affordance Graphs for Constraint-Driven Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Racing a Wheeled Quadruped: Active Load Transfer Mitigation via Model Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Racing a Wheeled Quadruped: Active Load Transfer Mitigation via Model Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	NavIsaacLab: Generating Realistic Crowd via Parallel Robot Learning for Benchmarking Human-aware Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-24	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	Approximating Feynman integrals using complete monotonicity and Stieltjes properties	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.64	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.64	Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.64	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	AUM of all prediction market ETFs by end of August 2026	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.64	Will a Waymo self-driving car be involved in a fatal accident before July 1, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-27	246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	34%
0.64	this market will resolve to yes if it closes with a greater than 50% chance of resolving to yes(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-04-24	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.64	1964864	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.64		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	big us tech stocks swing 214147047.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.64	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-14	INF_011 Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	92%
0.64	US Gas Price on May 1 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Price of WTI by evening of May 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	Price of WTI by evening of May 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators	Macro/Economy	54%
0.64	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.64	Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	FDA NDA021366: CRESTOR (ROSUVASTATIN CALCIUM) — ASTRAZENECA	fda 2026-04-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA BLA125261: STELARA (USTEKINUMAB) — CENTOCOR ORTHO BIOTECH INC	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA207110: BOSENTAN (BOSENTAN) — WATSON LABS INC	fda 2026-04-14	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.28.0	github_release 2026-03-13	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.64	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.77.0	github_release 2026-01-29	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.64	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.0	github_release 2022-03-10	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v5.5.0	github_release 2026-04-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v5.4.0	github_release 2026-03-27	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0-rc1	github_release 2024-07-02	246_036 Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. Peter Diamandis	AI	46%
0.64	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0-rc0	github_release 2024-06-18	246_036 Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. Peter Diamandis	AI	46%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Tailored Prompts, Targeted Protection: Vulnerability-Specific LLM Analysis for Smart Contracts	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Self-Improvement for Fast, High-Quality Plan Generation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Adaptive Dual-Path Framework for Covert Semantic Communication	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	APEX: Large-scale Multi-task Aesthetic-Informed Popularity Prediction for AI-Generated Music	arxiv 2026-05-05	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.64	Global and Local Topology-Aware Attention with Persistent Homology and Euler Biases for Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Bolek: A Multimodal Language Model for Molecular Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Learning Equivariant Neural-Augmented Object Dynamics From Few Interactions	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Nora: Normalized Orthogonal Row Alignment for Scalable Matrix Optimizer	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	GEM-FI: Gated Evidential Mixtures with Fisher Modulation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Most ReLU Networks Admit Identifiable Parameters	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.64	Trust, but Verify: Peeling Low-Bit Transformer Networks for Training Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-04	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Sharpness-Aware Pretraining Mitigates Catastrophic Forgetting	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.64	SAGA: A Robust Self-Attention and Goal-Aware Anchor-based Planner for Safe UAV Autonomous Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Elicitation Matters: How Prompts and Query Protocols Shape LLM Surrogates under Sparse Observations	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.35	github_release 2026-02-20	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29	github_release 2024-12-27	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28.post1	github_release 2024-09-13	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.64	Is Escalation Worth It? A Decision-Theoretic Characterization of LLM Cascades	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	A Regime Theory of Controller Class Selection for LLM Action Decisions	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	The Weight Gram Matrix Captures Sequential Feature Linearization in Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Continuous Expert Assembly: Instance-Conditioned Low-Rank Residuals for All-in-One Image Restoration	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%