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89,667 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 213 of 227, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Israel closes its airspace by July 15?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.56 | Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-01-28 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-04 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Oilers vs. Ducks(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Abidjan 2: Calvin Hemery vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.56 | Chirayu Rana sued?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.56 | Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.56 | Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Iran leadership change by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Santos: Valerio Aboian vs Pedro Sakamoto(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Santos: Santiago De La Fuente vs Franco Roncadelli(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.56 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Isurus vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque | Media/Ads | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Vit Kopriva(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Vit Kopriva(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Viktorija Golubic vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% |