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86,658 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 176 of 183, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-24 | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Alex Bores run for Congress in 2028?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | CMQ_003 By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 23% | |
| 0.55 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 237_008 App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. Alex Finn | Consumer | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 237_006 Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-30 | ROB_002 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primary human bottleneck in digital creation, making the automation of the AI researcher by 2027 a mechanical certainty. Kevin Weil | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-03 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby winner, Golden Tempo win another race?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-03 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 247_055 Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I take a leave of absence?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.55 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 237_008 App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. Alex Finn | Consumer | 41% | |
| 0.55 | SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | |
| 0.55 | Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.55 | Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 53% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 229_032 Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-08 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. Peter Diamandis | AI | 31% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-13 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 243_006 Autonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like Blackstone owning fleets Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 48% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | LIRR strike during morning rush hour Monday May 18?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.55 | Will Thomas Massie say Trump should be impeached before the end of 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the 2026 Fifa World Cup winner, draw or lose in the group stage?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 230_021 Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Resolves to Square root of a random number between 1-10,000(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in June 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.55 | LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. Dario Amodei | AI | 77% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 245_038 People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) Ben Lamm | Consumer | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk | AI | 13% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% |