Validations Queue
79,555 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 112 of 173, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 236_002 UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in May 2026?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Kash Patel still be FBI Director On 1st July 2026(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the Iran / US war resume before May 22nd?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | Will any horse win the Triple Crown in 2027?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | SPC_006 Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual revenues exceeding $20 billion — internal cash flow essentially eliminates SpaceX's requirement for public market capital and funds high-risk developme... SpaceX | Space | 88% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Jose Luis Ricon find a new girlfriend by EOY2026?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 38% | |
| 0.58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket](market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-27 | IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | Brazil 2026 Election: Will Brazil’s third way fail the 10% test?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | |
| 0.58 | Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack | Geopolitics | 40% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | Free Lottery (Faber–Jackson relation)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Trump go a day in June without insulting someone?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 241_033 Few frontier AI companies will be in China Eric Schmidt | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | US in control of Chagos Islands by end of 2028?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis | Space | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.58 | Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in June?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Do you like 58% odds?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 241_008 AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible Eric Schmidt | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I win any prize in the next prize drawing (Drawing #30)(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 33% | |
| 0.58 | US-Iran deal text released by June 19? [Polymarket](market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Will a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occur before September 1, 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 41% |