Validations Queue

80,311 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 132 of 214, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.58polymarket
2026-04-09
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-19
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 39%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-09
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks45%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-06
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-05
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-02-05
233_011
Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption.
Joe Liemandt
Education37%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)(market prob: 40%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-06-18
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-08
FUT_008
China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics30%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-06
235_006
By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-10
248_022
Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks42%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-10
236_034
Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics
Peter Diamandis
Macro/Economy50%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-13
INF_010
US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues.
Morgan Stanley
Energy56%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-19
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-29
SPC_009
Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space39%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-16
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
231_011
The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war.
Peter Diamandis
Geopolitics55%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-10
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-19
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-08
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-03
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
FUT_022
Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy72%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-24
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-04-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-28
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-10
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-10
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics32%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-07
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
229_004
By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.
Brett Adcock
Geopolitics41%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-08
242_010
By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.58
Sabres vs. Bruins(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-04-29
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
COD_BIO_003
Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity20%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-08
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.58
Netanyahu out by June 30?(market prob: 1%)
polymarket
2026-03-02
247_002
Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-02
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-01
CMQ_004
AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.
Dario Amodei
AI28%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-04
235_006
By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-03
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-28
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-01
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-28
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-06
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-05
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%)
polymarket
2026-05-07
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-26
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-07
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)
polymarket
2026-05-07
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%