Predictions
1,664 of 1,664 predictions match — page 33 of 34. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPC_024 | Labor/Jobs | Gen-Alpha-space-jobs | Graduating class of 2035 (Generation Alpha) could entirely bypass traditional… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 10.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| 232_038 | Space | $100T | Lunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2035-06-01 – 2035-06-30 |
| 232_024 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if tr… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 233_008 | Education | AI-scaling | Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, n… | Joe Liemandt | 3/5 | D | 40.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2046-09-30 |
| 234_036 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries wil… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 236_019 | Robotics | AI-timing | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 239_001 | Macro/Economy | economy | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 239_008 | Space | AGI | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 239_009 | Space | AGI | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 239_010 | Space | AGI | Mass driver on the moon within 10 years | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 243_013 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 243_014 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 243_015 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Software space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providers | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 243_017 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomo… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 244_018 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 246_003 | Macro/Economy | economy | Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 248_009 | Macro/Economy | economy | Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| CYB_001 | Labor/Jobs | NVIDIA-100-to-1-agent-ratio | By 2036, NVIDIA itself will employ approximately 75,000 human workers alongsi… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| ROB_017 | Labor/Jobs | gig-10-to-15-years-replacement | Self-driving vehicles and autonomous systems will begin completely replacing … | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | A | 58.0% | pending | 2036-01-01 – 2041-12-31 |
| 232_047 | Space | AGI | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-susta… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2037-06-01 – 2037-06-30 |
| 230_050 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2038-06-01 – 2038-06-30 |
| AI_007 | AI | singularity-2039-nanobots | Technological singularity arrives by 2039 — computing capacity matches the hu… | Ray Kurzweil | 5/5 | B | 20.0% | pending | 2039-01-01 – 2039-08-31 |
| 240_036 | Energy | AI-timing | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2040-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| CMQ_051 | Robotics | humanoid-TAM | Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units… | Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla | 5/5 | A | 40.0% | pending | 2040-01-01 – 2040-09-30 |
| SPC_001 | Space | global-space-economy-trillion | The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 tri… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2040-01-01 – 2040-10-31 |
| SPC_011 | Space | lunar-factories-500-1000TW | Lunar-surface factories leveraging local resources will manufacture satellite… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 5.0% | pending | 2040-01-01 – 2060-10-31 |
| 232_049 | Space | orbital-AI | Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2040-06-01 – 2040-06-30 |
| 244_002 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 year… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2041-01-01 – 2051-11-30 |
| INF_064 | Auto/Transport | autonomous-ride-hailing-majority | Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fu… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2041-01-01 – 2046-11-30 |
| 234_033 | Robotics | humanoids | David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months | David Holz | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2045-01-01 – 2045-09-30 |
| SPC_026 | Space | multiplanetary-post-2045 | Humanity becoming a truly multiplanetary species is strictly an era BEYOND th… | Ray Kurzweil | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2045-01-01 – 2045-10-31 |
| 244_029 | Energy | AI-timing | Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2046-01-01 – 2046-10-31 |
| CMQ_060 | Crypto | BTC-long-term-price | Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented pol… | Michael Saylor | 5/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2046-01-01 – 2046-12-31 |
| FUT_011 | Energy | solar-sub-cent-per-kWh-2050 | By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal … | Ramez Naam | 5/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2050-01-01 – 2050-11-30 |
| ROB_008 | Robotics | humanoid-5T-1B-2050 | Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive se… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 48.0% | in_progress | 2050-01-01 – 2050-09-30 |
| SPC_010 | Space | Mars-self-sustaining-1M-2050 | Establishment of a self-sustaining city on Mars populated by 1 million people… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 8.0% | pending | 2050-01-01 – 2050-11-30 |
| 230_020 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2063-06-01 – 2063-06-30 |
| 230_024 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-scaling | Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity esca… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2063-06-01 – 2063-06-30 |
| 233_015 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2070-06-01 – 2070-06-30 |
| 235_040 | Space | orbital-AI | Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless o… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2070-06-01 – 2070-06-30 |
| 236_010 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 238_031 | Other | AI-timing | Future is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI era | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | — – — |
| 238_050 | Other | AI-timing | Sci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |
| 238_057 | Macro/Economy | abundance | Laws of economics and thermodynamics will still apply despite AI abundance | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | — – — |
| 238_069 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive na… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |
| 239_017 | Other | AGI | Future is 80%+ likely to be great | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | — – — |
| 239_026 | Other | AGI | Future will be very entertaining | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 240_023 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | 45% of dementia cases are entirely preventable | Dr. Don Mucalem | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | — – — |
| 240_052 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |
| 243_046 | Consumer | AI-timing | When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantly | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |