Predictions
231 of 1,607 predictions match — page 3 of 5. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 246_032 | AI | AI-scaling | Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_033 | AI | autonomous | Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of hum… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_034 | AI | AI-timing | Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_049 | AI | AI-scaling | Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_054 | Space | SpaceX | Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 247_005 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 247_017 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 247_029 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-scaling | OpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 247_040 | Crypto | AI-scaling | AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 247_049 | Energy | AI-timing | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-11-30 |
| 247_050 | Biotech/Longevity | crypto | Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31 |
| 247_053 | Crypto | AI-scaling | AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31 |
| 247_054 | Real Estate | AI-timing | Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 230_026 | Consumer | AI-timing | The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_001 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_015 | AI | AI-scaling | Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_016 | AI | AI-scaling | Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_025 | AI | AI-scaling | Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_025 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_027 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in seco… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_050 | AI | AI-timing | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnera… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_051 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 235_010 | AI | AI-scaling | Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to ex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 235_031 | Markets/Stocks | $100T | Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 235_035 | AI | AI-timing | Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_018 | AI | AI-timing | We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_030 | AI | AI-scaling | Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical pa… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 238_020 | AI | AI-timing | Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 238_040 | AI | AI-scaling | Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 fo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_015 | AI | AI-timing | Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like chi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_031 | AI | AI-timing | Samsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_051 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_058 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_029 | AI | AI-scaling | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_048 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_011 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_012 | AI | AI-timing | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_019 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for n… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_014 | AI | AI-timing | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_018 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Young software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in r… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_019 | Space | orbital-AI | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_022 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_024 | Other | AI-timing | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_025 | Other | AI-timing | Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while prolife… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_028 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_029 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_032 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_036 | AI | AI-timing | AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_037 | AI | orbital-AI | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute i… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |