Predictions
389 of 1,621 predictions match — page 7 of 8. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI_008 | AI | superintelligence-2030 | Once 2027 AGI arrives (AI researchers capable of autonomous research), the in… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 28.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_015 | AI | Last-Economy-decentralization | Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will fo… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2032-08-31 |
| AI_025 | AI | GenAI-wrappers-RadioShack | Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the b… | Mark Cuban | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_029 | AI | blockchain-provenance-deepfakes | Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise wo… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| AI_036 | AI | RLHF-fails-superintelligence | Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically … | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| CMQ_007 | AI | corporate-revenue | Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_012 | AI | AGI-timeline | AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_016 | AI | intelligence-explosion | Post-AGI (2027+), a decade of human-led algorithmic progress will be compress… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| CYB_006 | AI | self-writing-memory-agents | When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own … | Kevin Weil | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| CYB_027 | AI | orthogonality-thesis | Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomabl… | Nick Bostrom | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| INF_001 | AI | GPU-deployment | Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GP… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| INF_007 | AI | OpenAI-compute-dominance | OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| ROB_001 | AI | runaway-superintelligence-recursive | If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 … | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 22.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| ROB_004 | AI | solve-physics-unification | By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve… | Demis Hassabis | 5/5 | A | 8.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| ROB_027 | AI | paperclip-maximizer-revisited | The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence co… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 35.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| 230_003 | AI | AI-scaling | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely re… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_006 | AI | AI-scaling | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an al… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_042 | AI | AI-timing | A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'li… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_004 | AI | AI-timing | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, an… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_013 | AI | AI-timing | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_008 | AI | AI-timing | Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mecha… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_009 | AI | AI-timing | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers vo… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_010 | AI | AI-timing | Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_034 | AI | AI-timing | Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best pro… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_044 | AI | AI-scaling | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitor… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_053 | AI | AI-scaling | To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_015 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_037 | AI | AI-scaling | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one u… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 236_029 | AI | AI-timing | Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regul… | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_023 | AI | AGI | Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 241_008 | AI | AI-scaling | AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially mill… | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_023 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_026 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via en… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_027 | AI | $100T | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_030 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillions | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_055 | AI | AI-scaling | Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will becom… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 248_007 | AI | AI-timing | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_005 | AI | AI-scaling | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withhe… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 241_007 | AI | AI-timing | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | San Francisco AI community | 4/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 241_043 | AI | AGI | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| 242_001 | AI | AGI | Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current glob… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 248_016 | AI | AI-scaling | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of y… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 248_033 | AI | AI-scaling | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| CMQ_002 | AI | AGI-capability-roadmap | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving auton… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_006 | AI | DC-land-coverage | Over time, very large fractions of the earth's land surface will be given ove… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| 230_008 | AI | AI-timing | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and materi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_007 | AI | AI-timing | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_008 | AI | AI-timing | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |